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(1) DC is 100% on point mentally, he is collected, determined, he has the interim belt with one defence, his career is going smoothly, he believes in himself and believes he can beat Jones now. Jones looked rusty and emotional and his life has been all over the place with drugs and crime and more than a year off etc.
(2) Jones is also rusty, as we saw in his last fight, and was slowing down and tired early.
(3) Jones broke his foot.
(4) Jones got the better of the wrestling in the DC fight, but DC is still the better pure wrestler. Jones wrestled better in the MMA context, but DC has more room to improve. He was able to insist on the inside fight and get to the clinch at will, and was able to do damage from there. I think that he has learnt from that fight and those since and has more potential to improve and adapt here than Jones, who was reduced to getting double wrist control and leaning on DC with his hips at a distance just to stall the clinch.
(5) DC has more power in his hands than Jones and he was able to hit Jones quite a lot in their previous fight. He knows he can do that now and he knows how to do it and you can be sure we will do it again. Jones's gangly frame is at a disadvantage at that range and DC will hurt him with short, heavy punches from the inside. Jones doesn't have the power in his hands to worry DC, who has been in the cage with HWs.
(6) DC did get caught with some shots to the body early on in their last fight which slowed him down. Considering all the above factors and his wrestling-based style I expect him to pressure Jones harder this time and avoid most of those and tire him out in the clinch, which will allow him to land takedowns and/or a greater volume of punches on the feet or in scrambles.
DC by decision or late TKO. He only needs a small improvement over the last fight to tip the balance and I expect him to make it.
(2) Jones is also rusty, as we saw in his last fight, and was slowing down and tired early.
(3) Jones broke his foot.
(4) Jones got the better of the wrestling in the DC fight, but DC is still the better pure wrestler. Jones wrestled better in the MMA context, but DC has more room to improve. He was able to insist on the inside fight and get to the clinch at will, and was able to do damage from there. I think that he has learnt from that fight and those since and has more potential to improve and adapt here than Jones, who was reduced to getting double wrist control and leaning on DC with his hips at a distance just to stall the clinch.
(5) DC has more power in his hands than Jones and he was able to hit Jones quite a lot in their previous fight. He knows he can do that now and he knows how to do it and you can be sure we will do it again. Jones's gangly frame is at a disadvantage at that range and DC will hurt him with short, heavy punches from the inside. Jones doesn't have the power in his hands to worry DC, who has been in the cage with HWs.
(6) DC did get caught with some shots to the body early on in their last fight which slowed him down. Considering all the above factors and his wrestling-based style I expect him to pressure Jones harder this time and avoid most of those and tire him out in the clinch, which will allow him to land takedowns and/or a greater volume of punches on the feet or in scrambles.
DC by decision or late TKO. He only needs a small improvement over the last fight to tip the balance and I expect him to make it.