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If the UFC had a chess-like rating...

muaythaidon1 said:
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I'm thinking this is what A.I. would give you if you asked what does the average Sherdog poster look like
 
Vincentsky said:
Vladislav you went over 95% if everyone’s head here, counting change at the 711 is the closest thing to an algorithm most of these guys know.
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While we're at it, here's some more cool stats.

The fighters with the highest strength of schedule (defined as the average Elo of their opponents) is:
  1. Michael Chandler (225.830)
  2. Renzo Gracie (223.034)
  3. Ron van Clief (215.154)
  4. Justin Gaethje (213.293)
  5. Daniel Cormier (212.729)
  6. Ben Askren (210.128)
  7. James Toney (205.974)
Biggest upset in UFC history:
Quinton Jackson (114.655) def. Chuck Liddell (279.363)
Granted I didn't take Pride fights into consideration.

Joshua Burkman has the lowest ever recorded elo (19.650) after losing 10 of his 11 last UFC fights.

The fighter with the highest elo wins 56.7% of the time.
 
Владислав IV said:
The Elo rating system can be used as an objective approach to determining a ranking based on the skill level of UFC fighters, as opposed to the silly and arbitrary pound-for-pound rankings.
With a start rating at 100, this is how the current top 15 would look like:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Khabib Nurmagomedov (292.587)
  4. Dustin Poirier (287.057)
  5. Islam Makhachev (286.728)
  6. Kamaru Usman (285.422)
  7. Leon Edwards (280.988)
  8. Charles Oliveira (277.861)
  9. Alexander Volkanovski (274.928)
  10. Beneil Dariush (271.992)
  11. Aljamain Sterling (269.404)
  12. Demetrious Johnson (268.642)
  13. Amanda Nunes (266.690)
  14. Francis Ngannou (263.779)
  15. Robert Whittaker (263.539)
And out of the 2373 fighters that have fought in the UFC, these are the 5 highest recorded ratings:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Kamaru Usman (322.851)
  4. Anderson Silva (315.715)
  5. Tony Ferguson (297.683)
Fun fact:
The biggest mismatch (Elo discrepancy) in UFC history was Demetrious Johnson (260.357) vs Tim Elliott (71.886)

If anyone's interested in the full list check out this table https://nkshv.github.io/
Click to expand...
This is quite interesting!

What's the difference in top 15 and the second list ?
 
Владислав IV said:
The Elo rating system can be used as an objective approach to determining a ranking based on the skill level of UFC fighters, as opposed to the silly and arbitrary pound-for-pound rankings.
With a start rating at 100, this is how the current top 15 would look like:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Khabib Nurmagomedov (292.587)
  4. Dustin Poirier (287.057)
  5. Islam Makhachev (286.728)
  6. Kamaru Usman (285.422)
  7. Leon Edwards (280.988)
  8. Charles Oliveira (277.861)
  9. Alexander Volkanovski (274.928)
  10. Beneil Dariush (271.992)
  11. Aljamain Sterling (269.404)
  12. Demetrious Johnson (268.642)
  13. Amanda Nunes (266.690)
  14. Francis Ngannou (263.779)
  15. Robert Whittaker (263.539)
And out of the 2373 fighters that have fought in the UFC, these are the 5 highest recorded ratings:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Kamaru Usman (322.851)
  4. Anderson Silva (315.715)
  5. Tony Ferguson (297.683)
Fun fact:
The biggest mismatch (Elo discrepancy) in UFC history was Demetrious Johnson (260.357) vs Tim Elliott (71.886)

If anyone's interested in the full list check out this table https://nkshv.github.io/
Click to expand...

Do you have Anderson Silva's rating before his loss to Weidman? I'm curious to see what it was before his decline.
 
Raptors2019 said:
This is quite interesting!

What's the difference in top 15 and the second list ?
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The difference is that the first list is all fighters current Elo's, whereas the second is about the highest achieved Elo for each fighter.
brownsmith76 said:
Do you have Anderson Silva's rating before his loss to Weidman? I'm curious to see what it was before his decline.
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Yep, it's his Peak Elo in the second list, 315.715. After all his losses he's at 188.737. This is his Elo after each of his fights:
  • Anderson Silva (119.238) def. Chris Leben (152.069)
  • Anderson Silva (139.388) def. Rich Franklin (191.296)
  • Anderson Silva (153.597) def. Travis Lutter (86.126)
  • Anderson Silva (169.347) def. Nate Marquardt (132.423)
  • Anderson Silva (187.582) def. Rich Franklin (199.969)
  • Anderson Silva (200.343) def. Dan Henderson (103.502)
  • Anderson Silva (212.651) def. James Irvin (106.392)
  • Anderson Silva (224.240) def. Patrick Cote (102.736)
  • Anderson Silva (237.418) def. Thales Leites (149.126)
  • Anderson Silva (249.881) def. Forrest Griffin (146.861)
  • Anderson Silva (262.466) def. Demian Maia (161.989)
  • Anderson Silva (272.789) def. Chael Sonnen (123.269)
  • Anderson Silva (284.046) def. Vitor Belfort (155.340)
  • Anderson Silva (296.953) def. Yushin Okami (203.134)
  • Anderson Silva (306.943) def. Chael Sonnen (149.726)
  • Anderson Silva (315.715) def. Stephan Bonnar (129.016)
  • Chris Weidman (204.406) def. Anderson Silva (293.867)
  • Chris Weidman (224.437) def. Anderson Silva (273.836)
  • Anderson Silva (273.836) NC Nick Diaz (122.488)
  • Michael Bisping (228.727) def. Anderson Silva (254.920)
  • Daniel Cormier (209.957) def. Anderson Silva (236.011)
  • Anderson Silva (249.212) def. Derek Brunson (161.384)
  • Israel Adesanya (187.694) def. Anderson Silva (229.539)
  • Jared Cannonier (127.816) def. Anderson Silva (208.093)
  • Uriah Hall (153.476) def. Anderson Silva (188.737)
 
Владислав IV said:
The difference is that the first list is all fighters current Elo's, whereas the second is about the highest achieved Elo for each fighter.

Yep, it's his Peak Elo in the second list, 315.715. After all his losses he's at 188.737. This is his Elo after each of his fights:
  • Anderson Silva (119.238) def. Chris Leben (152.069)
  • Anderson Silva (139.388) def. Rich Franklin (191.296)
  • Anderson Silva (153.597) def. Travis Lutter (86.126)
  • Anderson Silva (169.347) def. Nate Marquardt (132.423)
  • Anderson Silva (187.582) def. Rich Franklin (199.969)
  • Anderson Silva (200.343) def. Dan Henderson (103.502)
  • Anderson Silva (212.651) def. James Irvin (106.392)
  • Anderson Silva (224.240) def. Patrick Cote (102.736)
  • Anderson Silva (237.418) def. Thales Leites (149.126)
  • Anderson Silva (249.881) def. Forrest Griffin (146.861)
  • Anderson Silva (262.466) def. Demian Maia (161.989)
  • Anderson Silva (272.789) def. Chael Sonnen (123.269)
  • Anderson Silva (284.046) def. Vitor Belfort (155.340)
  • Anderson Silva (296.953) def. Yushin Okami (203.134)
  • Anderson Silva (306.943) def. Chael Sonnen (149.726)
  • Anderson Silva (315.715) def. Stephan Bonnar (129.016)
  • Chris Weidman (204.406) def. Anderson Silva (293.867)
  • Chris Weidman (224.437) def. Anderson Silva (273.836)
  • Anderson Silva (273.836) NC Nick Diaz (122.488)
  • Michael Bisping (228.727) def. Anderson Silva (254.920)
  • Daniel Cormier (209.957) def. Anderson Silva (236.011)
  • Anderson Silva (249.212) def. Derek Brunson (161.384)
  • Israel Adesanya (187.694) def. Anderson Silva (229.539)
  • Jared Cannonier (127.816) def. Anderson Silva (208.093)
  • Uriah Hall (153.476) def. Anderson Silva (188.737)
Click to expand...
Thanks bud.
Have you tried betting using this logic. I want to try it for a few fights and see if I can make money...
 
Raptors2019 said:
Thanks bud.
Have you tried betting using this logic. I want to try it for a few fights and see if I can make money...
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I wouldn't recommend it. The algorithm doesn't take into account injuries, lay off, aging, fights outside the UFC or anything else besides from who won the fight.
 
Владислав IV said:
I wouldn't recommend it. The algorithm doesn't take into account injuries, lay off, aging, fights outside the UFC or anything else besides from who won the fight.
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Do you think there will be AI that can make accurate predictions using all those variables. That would be nice.
 
Владислав IV said:
The Elo rating system can be used as an objective approach to determining a ranking based on the skill level of UFC fighters, as opposed to the silly and arbitrary pound-for-pound rankings.
With a start rating at 100, this is how the current top 15 would look like:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Khabib Nurmagomedov (292.587)
  4. Dustin Poirier (287.057)
  5. Islam Makhachev (286.728)
  6. Kamaru Usman (285.422)
  7. Leon Edwards (280.988)
  8. Charles Oliveira (277.861)
  9. Alexander Volkanovski (274.928)
  10. Beneil Dariush (271.992)
  11. Aljamain Sterling (269.404)
  12. Demetrious Johnson (268.642)
  13. Amanda Nunes (266.690)
  14. Francis Ngannou (263.779)
  15. Robert Whittaker (263.539)
And out of the 2373 fighters that have fought in the UFC, these are the 5 highest recorded ratings:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Kamaru Usman (322.851)
  4. Anderson Silva (315.715)
  5. Tony Ferguson (297.683)
Fun fact:
The biggest mismatch (Elo discrepancy) in UFC history was Demetrious Johnson (260.357) vs Tim Elliott (71.886)

If anyone's interested in the full list check out this table https://nkshv.github.io/
Click to expand...
But how do you determine their number? And why does it go off into the thousandths?
 
Владислав IV said:
The Elo rating system can be used as an objective approach to determining a ranking based on the skill level of UFC fighters, as opposed to the silly and arbitrary pound-for-pound rankings.
With a start rating at 100, this is how the current top 15 would look like:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Khabib Nurmagomedov (292.587)
  4. Dustin Poirier (287.057)
  5. Islam Makhachev (286.728)
  6. Kamaru Usman (285.422)
  7. Leon Edwards (280.988)
  8. Charles Oliveira (277.861)
  9. Alexander Volkanovski (274.928)
  10. Beneil Dariush (271.992)
  11. Aljamain Sterling (269.404)
  12. Demetrious Johnson (268.642)
  13. Amanda Nunes (266.690)
  14. Francis Ngannou (263.779)
  15. Robert Whittaker (263.539)
And out of the 2373 fighters that have fought in the UFC, these are the 5 highest recorded ratings:
  1. Jon Jones (363.863)
  2. Georges St-Pierre (346.526)
  3. Kamaru Usman (322.851)
  4. Anderson Silva (315.715)
  5. Tony Ferguson (297.683)
Fun fact:
The biggest mismatch (Elo discrepancy) in UFC history was Demetrious Johnson (260.357) vs Tim Elliott (71.886)

If anyone's interested in the full list check out this table https://nkshv.github.io/
Click to expand...

Anderson Silva below Kflo lol

What is more interesting is peak rating which isn't shown.
 
Last edited:
The top 2 are definitely more strategists than warriors.
 
Oh look, an actually interesting thread. It’s like those rare birds you only see every once in a while. But then it’s back to flocks of pigeons.
Good one TS.
 
Liverkick-king56 said:
Silly P4P system?
but your number system tries to tell me that Khabib, Aljo, Islam, Dariush and Poirier are higher than Mighty Mouse? The arguably most skilled fighter of all time?
Click to expand...

DJ is clearly light-years ahead of any of them. That's pretty brutal.
 
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