Okay, I just rewatched Jones VS Shogun, Alex, Reyes, and Evans. (I did watch the fights live as they happened as well)
When Jones has a clear physical advantage he absolutely looks like the greatest fighter of all time (Shogun, Evans). He is best when he can sit back and throw well-thought-out, high-powered shots. He does lack any true elite boxing so it's best when he can throw unusual strikes that most fighters don't see in training. He has a great element of surprise in that area.
But when matched up with fighters who don't give up insane reach, who move light on their feet and remain active in their boxing, he STILL looks elite but becomes vulnerable (Alex and Reyes). It must be said there is a realistic blueprint to beat him, unlike some people who would have you believe he is unbeatable and has never been in any real danger.
So this is where Gane comes in. He is a nightmare match up for Jon. He is tall, extremely light on his feet, has power, youth and he is heavily motivated. But most importantly he has an 81-inch reach with high level kick boxing. He is clearly the best striker Jones has ever faced. He is clearly the most dangerous fighter Jon had ever faced.
Also when speaking on Gane too much has been made of Ganes grappling (or lack of) after the Ngannou fight. I honestly believe Gane had no idea that Ngannou was going to grapple him that night. I also think Ngannou is ALOT stronger than Jon and he may be the most naturally strong man that has ever entered the Octagon. Ngannou is the friend you ask to help move your fridge and he picks it over his head by himself with ease....The point being Gane grappling will be fine.
Prediction: This IS a toss-up fight. Jones will get busted up quickly and early in this one and his whole survival depends on winning the clench and getting AND maintaining the takedown...
...Here is the problem, Gane knows this and will be VERY hard to take down. He will be VERY prepared after what happened with Ngannou.
If you bet then Gane is the smart money being the underdog. Not to mention that Jon has been out 3 years and we are bound to see the best version of Gane.
Jones will do enough to make a few rounds close by getting some takedowns but it won't be enough as Gane will land big shots and have Jones wobbling and reeling for survival.
Gane by split Dec. I'm putting $500 on Gane.
My Join date checks out. I know what I'm talking about.
