I rewatched old Jones fights (prediction)

[IceCold ADCC]

I expect Jones to go for the win early as the extra weight will slow him down and tire him out as the fight goes on . Fireworks in the first round then if it goes into the second we will see it become a clinch fest against the cage . Chance of eye pokes is very high.

Wall and stall is 100% on the table of strategy for Jones and his team. I think he will "win" a few rounds just grabbing and holding on for dear life to get some what of a superior position.

 

[StonedLemur]

If he wins Saturday he could get a great endorsement deal with Gain Soap.

"Gane says Gain, knocks out blood stains! Isn't that right Jon?"

Cue laughing audience and picture of Jon Jones KTFO!!!!!!

This stuff writes it's self.

Lol good idea sir.

 

[Killer Kadoogan]

jones will get hit, that is unavoidable. but he won't go down. ganes opponents dont go down until the 3rd. jones is going to take his ass down and elbow the shit out of him. turn him into a french cwossant dough consistency. fuck gane.

 

[Bradillac]

Gane isn't even top 5 most skilled fighters that Jon has faced. He's extremely over rated because he's relatively athletic in a division full of bums. Fact is Jon is going to embarrass Gane, He's just the worst possible matchup for Gane in the UFC.

 

[93confirmed]

Great analysis and I agree with most of your points. It's a coin flip but I have Jones by late sub.

 

[Gamer2k4]

But when matched up with fighters who don't give up insane reach, who move light on their feet and remain active in their boxing, he STILL looks elite but becomes vulnerable (Alex and Reyes). It must be said there is a realistic blueprint to beat him, unlike some people who would have you believe he is unbeatable and has never been in any real danger.

It's worth noting that in your two fights where Jones looked "vulnerable" (read: didn't finish or win 50-44), at least one judge in each fight gave him 4 of the 5 rounds. That's right - "vulnerable" for Jones means he happened to drop a single round, rather than easily winning all five.

My prediction for the Gane fight is that Jones looks slower than he ever did at LHW (call it "methodical" if you want to be gracious), yet he'll still easily determine where the fight goes and will be stronger than many people, Gane included, expect. I think Jones will prove to be stronger, smarter, and more talented than Gane throughout the majority of the fight, if not the whole thing.

 

[Brit_Brawler]

Too many unknowns in this fight. The two obvious and biggest being has jon lost a step being 3 years older or at least is rusty.
How is he carrying all the Weight?
When we add those two factors in its bad enough. Then we have him fighting an assassin. If it was lewis or tai tuivasa etc then I don't think we would have a problem
Jon would easily out grapple and outstrike them even if he was 70 percent of his old self

 

[Talon81]

fuck gane.

I literally can't think of a single reason to hate Gane. Where does this come from?

 

[Talon81]

Gane isn't even top 5 most skilled fighters that Jon has faced. He's extremely over rated because he's relatively athletic in a division full of bums. Fact is Jon is going to embarrass Gane, He's just the worst possible matchup for Gane in the UFC.

Have your excuses ready. Anything but annihilation is a fail on your part.

 

[Katsumi Yamada]

You are right sir. Risky bet but this is my first big underdog bet of the year that I REALLY like the underdog.

I could see Gain getting fucked by the judges.

Good bet IMO. how much do you stand to gane?

The fact that nobody has asked you to post the betting slip is proof that sherdoggers respect the join date lol

 

[Joshua King]

Okay, I just rewatched Jones VS Shogun, Alex, Reyes, and Evans. (I did watch the fights live as they happened as well)

When Jones has a clear physical advantage he absolutely looks like the greatest fighter of all time (Shogun, Evans). He is best when he can sit back and throw well-thought-out, high-powered shots. He does lack any true elite boxing so it's best when he can throw unusual strikes that most fighters don't see in training. He has a great element of surprise in that area.

But when matched up with fighters who don't give up insane reach, who move light on their feet and remain active in their boxing, he STILL looks elite but becomes vulnerable (Alex and Reyes). It must be said there is a realistic blueprint to beat him, unlike some people who would have you believe he is unbeatable and has never been in any real danger.

So this is where Gane comes in. He is a nightmare match up for Jon. He is tall, extremely light on his feet, has power, youth and he is heavily motivated. But most importantly he has an 81-inch reach with high level kick boxing. He is clearly the best striker Jones has ever faced. He is clearly the most dangerous fighter Jon had ever faced.

Also when speaking on Gane too much has been made of Ganes grappling (or lack of) after the Ngannou fight. I honestly believe Gane had no idea that Ngannou was going to grapple him that night. I also think Ngannou is ALOT stronger than Jon and he may be the most naturally strong man that has ever entered the Octagon. Ngannou is the friend you ask to help move your fridge and he picks it over his head by himself with ease....The point being Gane grappling will be fine.

Prediction: This IS a toss-up fight. Jones will get busted up quickly and early in this one and his whole survival depends on winning the clench and getting AND maintaining the takedown...

...Here is the problem, Gane knows this and will be VERY hard to take down. He will be VERY prepared after what happened with Ngannou.

If you bet then Gane is the smart money being the underdog. Not to mention that Jon has been out 3 years and we are bound to see the best version of Gane.

Jones will do enough to make a few rounds close by getting some takedowns but it won't be enough as Gane will land big shots and have Jones wobbling and reeling for survival.

Gane by split Dec. I'm putting $500 on Gane.

My Join date checks out. I know what I'm talking about.

I like your analysis. Fyi, join date doesn't indicate much these days! LOL

You are right sir. Risky bet but this is my first big underdog bet of the year that I REALLY like the underdog.

I could see Gain getting fucked by the judges.

Oh, if he doesn't finish Jone's you can count on him being dicked over.

 

[eatu4tea]

Prediction: This IS a toss-up fight. Jones will get busted up quickly and early in this one and his whole survival depends on winning the clench and getting AND maintaining the takedown...

...Here is the problem, Gane knows this and will be VERY hard to take down. He will be VERY prepared after what happened with Ngannou.

I'm sorry what? You don't go from getting rag dolled by a reckless power puncher to becoming a D1 Wrestler in 12 months lmao.

Conor spent like $8 Trillion Dollars on the best Jiu-Jitsu and grappling coaches from all across the land ever since that marijuana guy submitted him and he still looked like a deer in head lights with Khabib.

If Jon wants this fight to go to the ground, it's going to the ground. Also, Jon Jones was stronger than Gane and Ngannou years ago when he was a LHW. He is the strongest fighter on the roster. Inb4 skinny calves = weak.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

I always find it funny when someone predicts a split decision, cuz that's either saying, "i think at least one judge is going to be wrong" or "I think both fighters will have done enough to win." Or it's just legitimately "i have at least 3 split personalities, and we were not in agreement." Whatever the case, I'm unsure as to how confident you can be in making a $500 bet

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

I literally can't think of a single reason to hate Gane. Where does this come from?

Oh that's just Killer Kadoogan. He's a piece of shit

 

[MMun]

The first round or two might be tough for Jones, but he'll eventually get the clinch and start imposing his will. People forget how well he can wrestle and how much of a grinder he is. He may not win the standup, but he's not getting embarrassed there, either.

 

[NoSmilez]

Jones isn't just some reach advantage guy. He watches a lot of tape and follows a game plan very well. He also has the ability to dig very deep when the game plan doesn't go well. His training situation towards the end of his LHW run has grown very stagnant. I am not sure what he is doing now for HW. He bought in Stan Efferding but he is a world class powerlifter/bodybuilder turned nutrition guy. MMA training wise seems like the same team minus wink.

 

[TankAbbott4Eva]

I think this is a fight to enjoy and not to bet on personally, Jones is such an unknown factor at this point really, the layoff, the move up,‘he’s a lot older now. Not writing him off, he’s the GOAT in my eyes but I have no clue how he’ll look.

 

[Cartiac]

I think your analysis is very good and could very well be right, but one point I think you are underestimating is the difference in competition and pressure Jones has faced and conquered in his career. Jon Jones walked through legend after legend unlike anyone in MMA history, defeating a crazy 7 different UFC champions, and 15 straight title fights.

I also don't understand the basis for you to deem Gane this God level striker surpassing Jones and his legendary list of opponents. 3rd round KO'ing a couple gassed, pot bellied, one punch wonders doesn't make him an elite level striker.

Gane has not shown overall fight intelligence or sophisticated striking against his very lame competition. There is no blueprint to beat Jones because no one has done it. Jones has intentionally not shown much of anything to give away how big he really is and how he moves at his HW size but obscure clips claiming to be recent footage of Jones look like he ate the Incredible Hulk. You excuse Gane's inability to defend against Ngannou's clumsiness due to surprise, so how is he going to deal with the surprise of facing the skill of the best fighter ever that may even come out bigger than him.

 

[K1fan]

I think Jones is not going to want to be in that octagon anymore.And when Gane is fresh I don’t see him getting a takedown.So he is gonna get hit by a heavyweight again and again. I wonder how many of those kicks and punches he can take.

 

[mmadeewana]

I'm not convinced Gane will be able to stop the takedowns and get back up to his feet in a 5 round fight.

JJ by late sub. Come back and bully me if I'm wrong.

Why would anyone bully a 6,4 300 lbs of pure muscle sherdogger.