How optimistic are you about the M-RNA vaccine(s) for COVID?

[ocfightfan]

The vaccine everyone is talking about lately is based upon a new process for developing vaccines and so far it appears to be safe and 90% effective after a phase three clinical trial of 10's of thousands of people. All that remains is for all their data and so on to be vetted for accuracy but that could take until the end of the year.

Assuming the vaccine works as advertised and is approved by health agencies like Health Canada and the FDA, estimates of how long it will take after that to distribute it widely enough for people to be able to return to more or less normal life vary from roughly 3 to 24 months depending upon regional conditions like access to healthcare and overall economic status. Personally, I'm guessing that it will take at least 6 months into 2021 before we can safely reopen the Canadian border to United States travelers without some sort of vaccine passport and I haven't heard much about any plan for something like that. Anyway, that would be a good enough sign to me to consider the pandemic over, basically.

So, given the timeline for full distribution of the vaccine is only an estimate, but also given that pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer will have already started producing doses in the millions in anticipation of approval, how soon do you think things will be fully returned to as normal a condition as possible in your area?

While I very much believe in vaccines I'm also very uncertain about this one for two reasons. The first is that it seems rushed and not as proven as previous vaccines. It's not like there haven't been problems and bad outcomes with other vaccines. Like some of the reports I've read about people getting polio from Bill Gates vaccine program in Africa.

The second reason is that I've seen reports which indicate that there may be no durable immunity in people who have gotten over COVID19.

I want to believe, but also need to see more.

 

[Andy Capp]

While I very much believe in vaccines I'm also very uncertain about this one for two reasons. The first is that it seems rushed and not as proven as previous vaccines. It's not like there haven't been problems and bad outcomes with other vaccines. Like some of the reports I've read about people getting polio from Bill Gates vaccine program in Africa.

The second reason is that I've seen reports which indicate that there may be no durable immunity in people who have gotten over COVID19.

I want to believe, but also need to see more.

I would not use that as a criterion. I addressed the apparent undue haste in another post. The M-RNA tech was already primed, waiting for something to be applied to, when SarsCoV2 came along. The couple working with Pfizer, for example, say they began work on their vaccine all the way back in January. Additionally, a feature of the new process is the ability to rapid prototype and generate effective drugs more quickly than with earlier methods. Clinical trials have involved 10's of thousands of people to date. Further, before the vaccines receive approval, the data needs to be vetted (that's going on right now in the case of the Pfizer vaccine and the Moderna one will soon follow. Assuming it passes inspection, as it were, I'll be fine with it and I don't think going any slower would make any difference in preventing whatever very rare issues that may arise even if I'm so afflicted.

 

[BassAckwards]

i'm not very optimistic. i'll wait fot the majority of the population to get it first and see what the side effects are

 

[Andy Capp]

i'm not very optimistic. i'll wait fot the majority of the population to get it first and see what the side effects are

Well, the good news is that by the time it's widely available, we'll already know if there are any among people who have already had the vaccine for many months, and the bad news is that waiting another 6 months or a year won't really turn up the rare ones so you'll still be taking your chances. I would rather just pee or get off the pot.

 

[BassAckwards]

Well, the good news is that by the time it's widely available, we'll already know if there are any among people who have already had the vaccine for many months, and the bad news is that waiting another 6 months or a year won't really turn up the rare ones so you'll still be taking your chances. I would rather just pee or get off the pot.

with the way infection rates are going, we will probably get to herd immunity before half the country gets immunized

 

[HockeyBjj]

The good news for you is they reported just this morning that another vaccine from Moderna is looking as good as or better than the Pfizer one and it can be stored in a normal fridge after thawing.

I didn’t see about normal fridge, but I saw stored at -4 which commercial freezers and shipping trucks can do as opposed to -94 degrees where it gets tricky needing dry ice and canisters for everything

 

[Andy Capp]

I didn’t see about normal fridge, but I saw stored at -4 which commercial freezers and shipping trucks can do as opposed to -94 degrees where it gets tricky needing dry ice and canisters for everything

One of us has it wrong then because I understood it was +4 which is the normal storage temp for the coldest part of the fridge IIRC. Please be so kind as to verify. I'm a little too dry and hunk... or something like that.

 

[Andy Capp]

with the way infection rates are going, we will probably get to herd immunity before half the country gets immunized

Maybe in the shithole countries*, but here in Canada, although things have taken somewhat of a disappointing turn, I think we'll get it under control.



*j/k... I think

 

[HockeyBjj]

One of us has it wrong then because I understood it was +4 which is the normal storage temp for the coldest part of the fridge IIRC. Please be so kind as to verify. I'm a little too dry and hunk... or something like that.

are you not American? +4 is still below 32 freezing.

Think I found our discrepancy.
the one made by Pfizer — needs to be kept extremely cold: minus 70 degrees Celsius
(-94F), which is colder than winter in Antarctica. Moderna has said that its vaccine needs to be frozen too, but only at minus 20 Celsius, (-4F) more like a regular freezer.

But then there’s also this
Moderna says its vaccine candidate is stable at regular freezer temperature — minus 20 degrees Celsius — for up to six months, and after thawing it can last in the refrigerator for 30 days.

I didn’t know till now that it could be above freezing for up to 30 days. So that was probably what you saw

 

[Andy Capp]

are you not American? +4 is still below 32 freezing.

Think I found our discrepancy.
the one made by Pfizer — needs to be kept extremely cold: minus 70 degrees Celsius
(-94F), which is colder than winter in Antarctica. Moderna has said that its vaccine needs to be frozen too, but only at minus 20 Celsius, (-4F) more like a regular freezer.

But then there’s also this
Moderna says its vaccine candidate is stable at regular freezer temperature — minus 20 degrees Celsius — for up to six months, and after thawing it can last in the refrigerator for 30 days.

I didn’t know till now that it could be above freezing for up to 30 days. So that was probably what you saw

Yes, I was referring to the claim that it could be stored in a refrigerator after thawing.

 

[PrinceOfPain]

Maybe in the shithole countries*, but here in Canada, although things have taken somewhat of a disappointing turn, I think we'll get it under control.



*j/k... I think

Lol. I was just about to comment that one of the few advantages of living in a poor country is that the civvie is less a big deal here, and we get to use the first world as vaccine guinea pigs for about two years before it's mandated for us.
If you guys all end up infertile, we can finish moving in in about fifty years.