Lombard is easy to study since he largely chooses to neglect his best asset, judo.
So it comes down to Nate staying mobile and using kicks to avoid Hector's early burst, and then later on, if Nate chooses to be the first guy in the UFC to go after Hector, openings for punches will come.
Nate has power and good combos when he chooses to use them (when he's not tentatively throwing single shots and low kicks). I think he does in spots without risking getting countered and gets the decision.
Hector could gas here again since he's apparently cutting the weight wrongly.