Economy Halfway to a recession- US GDP shrinks by .3% in Q1

[HereticBD]

Want to make a bet?

If you want to draw one up, I'll look at it.

 

[Seano]

We shall see. Dozens of major businesses investing trillions leading to industrial manufacturing purchases going way up.

The left will find a way to cancel it.

 

[Rod1]

If you want to draw one up, I'll look at it.

The bet is that either Trump backs off the trade war or that the economy will be worse than Biden's if he doesn't.

 

[HereticBD]

The bet is that either Trump backs off the trade war or that the economy will be worse than Biden's if he doesn't.

Nah, that's way too vague. What does "backing off the trade war" even mean? Trade war with whom? Everyone, or just some? How do you define that? That's not something to bet on.

Come up with a concrete number and timeline, or something. Like, will the country be in recession at ____. Something like that. You can't bet on vague indefinite feels.

 

[Rod1]

Nah, that's way too vague. What does "backing off the trade war" even mean? Trade war with whom? Everyone, or just some? How do you define that? That's not something to bet on.

Ok, how about Trump doesn't stops the trade deficit without a major crisis.

Come up with a concrete number and timeline, or something. Like, will the country be in recession at ____. Something like that. You can't bet on vague indefinite feels.

Trade deficit on goods remains about 18% of total trade or Trump's economy performs worse than Biden's.

 

[HereticBD]

Ok, how about Trump doesn't stops the trade deficit without a major crisis.


Trade deficit on goods remains about 18% of total trade or Trump's economy performs worse than Biden's.

Again, these are vague. What's a "major crisis"? What is the timeline for Trump's economy performing worse than Biden's? A week? A month? A year?

I don't blame you, as this is all very complex. Keep spitballing, and I'll try to come up with something a bit more concrete as well.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

It's a marathon, not a sprint. This thread will be laughable in the future, and not one Leftist in here will admit they were being hysterical retards.

Yea, while nothing is guaranteed, I think they are being very transparent and have an obvious plan and it makes sense to me. Especially when you see all these businesses announcing plans to invest here. And this is private industry investing, not the US government paying them to invest.

In the cabinet meeting today, they discussed how they have a streamlined process and some of these plants and infrastructure are already being built. I think it was the Taiwan chip manufacturer, but they were saying they even granted them being their own utility, because they were making their own electric grid that they will connect to main grid and even sell back energy

Compare that to the Biden admin that was subsidizing these same or similar companies. These companies are rich, let them pay, just trump is waiving all the bullshit.

The biggest contrast will be that Biden built like 8 electric chargers in 4 years with billions of tax payer money spent. Trump will have whole factories built, with trillions of private money spent.

If trump does pull this off, there will be no coming back for these people

Nah, that's way too vague. What does "backing off the trade war" even mean? Trade war with whom? Everyone, or just some? How do you define that? That's not something to bet on.

Come up with a concrete number and timeline, or something. Like, will the country be in recession at ____. Something like that. You can't bet on vague indefinite feels.

They will make it vague as fuck cause they don’t know what is going on. At least @HockeyBjj and I agreed on a very straight forward point, me saying first 4% growth for Q4, eventually agreeing on 5%

Trumps team already announcing trade deals, these people will say that is backing off, even if it is a good trade deal for us

The left will find a way to cancel it.

Waiting for some judge in a random blue district in CA to issue a nationwide injunction to that that Trump cannot engage in foreign policy like the minerals deal because of 1/6.

 

[Rod1]

I don't blame you, as this is all very complex. Keep spitballing, and I'll try to come up with something a bit more concrete as well.

+18% goods trade deficit is a pretty solid number. Ill bet you that goods trade deficit doesn't goes below that number. that's IMO a good definition of "backing out the trade war".

If he does manages to lower the trade deficit below that number ill concede that Trump didn't backed out of the trade war or that he won the trade war.

But i don't think he manages that without underperforming in terms of GDP growth, and by underperforming i mean having the worst growth for any president since Clinton 92'

 

[Rod1]

They will make it vague as fuck cause they don’t know what is going on. At least @HockeyBjj and I agreed on a very straight forward point, me saying first 4% growth for Q4, eventually agreeing on 5%

Its vague because Trump's policy is vague as fuck, if he sticks to the trade war the economy will go to shit that's my bet.

By sticking to the trade war i mean he actually accomplishes a reduction in the trade deficit that goes beyond normal numbers 18% of total good trade is an specific number and by "not fucking the economy" i mean ending his term with average growth.

 

[Siver!]

They will make it vague as fuck cause they don’t know what is going on. At least @HockeyBjj and I agreed on a very straight forward point, me saying first 4% growth for Q4, eventually agreeing on 5%

Trumps team already announcing trade deals, these people will say that is backing off, even if it is a good trade deal for us

What are you talking about "they" and "these people" for?

This is literally @HereticBD and @Rod1 trying to hash out a bet.

They are individuals with their own individual viewpoints.

That might blow your mind, memetard, but you can't really draw any parallels between Heretic, Rod and any other pairing.

 

[matheuss92]

We shall see. Dozens of major businesses investing trillions leading to industrial manufacturing purchases going way up.

Trillions?? Last time I heard they are investing BAZZILIONS!!! It will be the greatest investiment of ALL TIMES!! MAGA!!!

 

[TeTe]

Even if the market stays at it current levels and unemployment doesn't go above 4.5 percent, it won't be very noticable.

That's the problem with people moving the goalposts on the definition of a recession.

We had two quarters of negative GDP a few years ago and no one called it. We triggered the sahm rule not that long ago and the sky didn't fall.

We may not experience any real pain from a contraction without a black swan.

 

[NickNick]

Even if the market stays at it current levels and unemployment doesn't go above 4.5 percent, it won't be very noticable.

That's the problem with people moving the goalposts on the definition of a recession.

We had two quarters of negative GDP a few years ago and no one called it. We triggered the sahm rule not that long ago and the sky didn't fall.

We may not experience any real pain from a contraction without a black swan.

Which quarters specifically? If they were during all of the covid nonsense then it would make sense. We are now beyond covid and the fallout, outside of the inflation that has been on a downward trend for awhile. All of the shit happening now is directly caused by Trump and his tariff's. There should be no hand waving of this.

 

[TeTe]

Which quarters specifically? If they were during all of the covid nonsense then it would make sense. We are now beyond covid and the fallout, outside of the inflation that has been on a downward trend for awhile. All of the shit happening now is directly caused by Trump and his tariff's. There should be no hand waving of this.

Looked again... Looks like it was just Q1 22. Guess we were barely positive in Q2 that year

 

[Darkavius]

Yea, while nothing is guaranteed, I think they are being very transparent and have an obvious plan and it makes sense to me. Especially when you see all these businesses announcing plans to invest here. And this is private industry investing, not the US government paying them to invest.

In the cabinet meeting today, they discussed how they have a streamlined process and some of these plants and infrastructure are already being built. I think it was the Taiwan chip manufacturer, but they were saying they even granted them being their own utility, because they were making their own electric grid that they will connect to main grid and even sell back energy

Compare that to the Biden admin that was subsidizing these same or similar companies. These companies are rich, let them pay, just trump is waiving all the bullshit.

The biggest contrast will be that Biden built like 8 electric chargers in 4 years with billions of tax payer money spent. Trump will have whole factories built, with trillions of private money spent.

If trump does pull this off, there will be no coming back for these people

You said it makes sense to you. I'm interested in what you understand so far because I don't see it. You say that companies are investing here and Trump is just waiving the bullshit, but what is the bullshit? If a company invests but quality goes down then what was the point? If a company comes in and makes cereal, for example, but the cereal is able to have more things that should not be in them because the government chooses not to regulate that why have the products here in the first place?

Also where are you going to get the trained people for these jobs? School and daily life is still too expensive. So they are building with limited labor to build off of and it does not even address the aging labor force. At this point if significant labor capital is needed Americans will need what the administration has been fighting a lot of and that is immigration. The most interesting thing you said though was "companies are rich, let them pay". Do you think companies are just going to pay? These companies wouldn't do much of anything without government assistance. Sure, these companies are rich but they will only invest if they get corporate welfare including significant tax breaks, which is weird because America already has a lower tax rate for corps than other parts of the world.

 

[Confucamus]

We shall see. Dozens of major businesses investing trillions leading to industrial manufacturing purchases going way up.

None of these same posters will be anywhere to be found if Trump's economic plan starts showing positive results.

 

[PEB]

 

[Darkavius]

This sounds good and all but for people who support Trump he is looked at as doing well in regards to immigration from what I've read. On top of that Dems numbers (aside from Bernie and AOC) are worse than Trump's. So Dems are just as unserious as Trump. Right now Dems will be using the same playbook they always use in 2026 which is "Look at how bad Trump is doing." Stop doing that and actually have an alternative that is achievable in 2 years or start doing small things in communities and kind of use Repubs arguments against him, or do things Repubs won't touch.

 

[ocfightfan]

The bigger worry is how left wing brainwashing is destroying our fertility, and that will ultimately destroy our economy.

 

[Siver!]

The bigger worry is how left wing brainwashing is destroying our fertility, and that will ultimately destroy our economy.

Those damn left wing aspirations!!!

Why aren't people happy living in a shithole struggling on one wage in a traditional family setup that no longer works thanks to generation after generation failing to deal with the ever widening wealth gap that has gone so far that first time buyers no longer have any prospects on that "preferable" single wage?

Leftists, damn yoooooouuuuuu!

[/skeletor]

Just blame rich people in future. The ones that don't pay a proper wage while hoovering up properties and removing them from the market place.