Tech Gaming Hardware discussion (& Hardware Sales) thread

[avenue94]

They obviously stopped feeding any new RTX 40 series into the market several months ago.

Nvidia fulfilled orders through almost the end of last year for RTX 40. There's a lag between shutting down production and when you actually see GPUs enter the channel.

The part a lot of gamers don't take into consideration is that the Blackwell screw up really messed up plans since 4nm is still at capacity, same with VRAM for RTX 50. Nvidia's fault, but you can't just go to TSMC and buy fab capacity on short notice, even if you're Apple.

Has nothing to do with pandemics or inflation or tariffs or any of that shit. It's pure inventory control.

You are correct that the short supply is mostly unrelated to those factors, with the exception of tariffs. Everybody stockpiled a massive amount of components in Q4, and GPUs are very low down on the list of things of stockpile. They're almost last.

It sucks, but gamers are more price insensitive than SMB or commercial, and that's where PC companies focused their stockpiling.

 

[Madmick]

You are correct that the short supply is mostly unrelated to those factors, with the exception of tariffs.

Tariffs have nothing to do with it.

 

[avenue94]

Tariffs have nothing to do with it.

I'm telling you as someone who works with supply chain and demand planners it did, but you're free to not believe me.

Stock for RTX 50 isn't there yet, so why would the channel pass up the chance to stock up on RTX 40? The last orders of 4070S didn't arrive until Dec/January.

Because there were more important things to stockpile and get into markets before tariffs.

 

[Madmick]

I'm telling you as someone who works with supply chain and demand planners it did, but you're free to not believe me.

Because you're blowing shit out of your ass. You're a blowhard. You have less than zero currency with me.

 

[avenue94]

Because you're blowing shit out of your ass. You're a blowhard. You have less than zero currency with me.

It's more you have limited knowledge of how the channel works. Merchants and manufacturers don't maintain several months of PC or GPU stock at once.

If Nvidia stopped feeding supply into the channel several months ago, there would have been insufficient stock during Q4, the most important buying period. Yet Q4 performed for gaming.

You also are not factoring in the roughly 2 month time it takes to go from GPU to finished card in the channel, which would mean in your timeline that Nvidia stopped Ada production sometime in the summer.

 

[Madmick]

It's more you have limited knowledge of how the channel works. Merchants and manufacturers don't maintain several months of PC or GPU stock at once.

If Nvidia stopped feeding supply into the channel several months ago, there would have been insufficient stock during Q4, the most important buying period. Yet Q4 performed for gaming.

You also are not factoring in the roughly 2 month time it takes to go from GPU to finished card in the channel, which would mean in your timeline that Nvidia stopped Ada production sometime in the summer.

Blah blah blah a bunch of nonsense that isn't consistent with observed market realities. "Take my word for it." Blah blah blah.

*Edit*
To illustrate, notice how the new tariffs are going to elevate prices in the future.

It might be hard to imagine even worse GPU prices but the CEOs of Best Buy and Target both predict tariffs will push consumer prices up and fast​

Meanwhile, what was the change in tariff structures that occurred during last year's quarter that caused a sudden inflation in prices-- when Biden was still President? I must have missed that headline.

 

[avenue94]

Blah blah blah a bunch of nonsense that isn't consistent with observed market realities. "Take my word for it." Blah blah blah.

Like I said, believe or not, it's the internet. But Nvidia and ODMs fulfilled orders into Q4, and here you are insisting that they stopped several months ago with no evidence.

Nevermind for your theory to work the cash conversion cycle would have had to be months if you were a retailer or brand, which is unheard of in PCs.

 

[Madmick]

Like I said, believe or not, it's the internet. But Nvidia and ODMs fulfilled orders into Q4, and here you are insisting that they stopped several months ago with no evidence.

Nevermind for your theory to work the cash conversion cycle would have had to be months if you were a retailer or brand, which is unheard of in PCs.

You're offered zero evidence either. My assertions are at least logically consistent with laws and observed market pricing.

 

[avenue94]

You're offered zero evidence either. My assertions are at least logically consistent with laws and observed market pricing.

Here's the info you would have access to.

Nvidia has reportedly killed production of all RTX 40 GPUs apart from the 4050 and 4060 as affordable 50-series GPUs could arrive earlier than expected

RTX 50 is imminent, that's the implication...

www.pcgamer.com

Rtx 4060 Ti and 4070 stopped in Q4. 4060 orders are still being fulfilled. Those are your volume GPUs, 90 and 80 stopped earlier but are irrelevant as to GPU supply for the gaming market a as whole.

What laws are you even talking about? Supply and demand don't tell you how much stock a company would buy up ahead of time.

 

[Madmick]

Here's the info you would have access to.

Nvidia has reportedly killed production of all RTX 40 GPUs apart from the 4050 and 4060 as affordable 50-series GPUs could arrive earlier than expected

RTX 50 is imminent, that's the implication...

www.pcgamer.com

Rtx 4060 Ti and 4070 stopped in Q4. 4060 orders are still being fulfilled. Those are your volume GPUs, 90 and 80 stopped earlier but are irrelevant as to GPU supply for the gaming market a as whole.

Did you really just link an article affirming my comments? Brilliant. Notice how this stacks up to MSRPs:

Updated prices on Ebay: (MSRP in Red)

4060 $298 ($299)
4060 Ti $370 + $13 shipping ($399, 8GB variant; $429*, 16GB variant)
4070 $650 + $21 shipping ($499*)
4070 Super $699 + $15 shipping ($599)
4070 Ti $790 + $25 shipping ($699*)
4070 Ti Super $1000 + $9 shipping ($799)
4080 $1250 + $7 shipping ($1199)
4080 Super $1400 ($999)
4090 $2350 ($1599, super inflated, sure, but let's be real, it was never MSRP)

*Reduced official pricing from major retailers after launch (usually following the release of Super variants)

*Edit* To summarize, clearly the only outlier is the 4060 Ti.

What laws are you even talking about? Supply and demand don't tell you how much stock a company would buy up ahead of time.

Tariffs. New tariffs are only now going to be introduced. And if retailers bought a mass of stock to import to beat the expected incoming tariffs, then there wouldn't be a supply choke over the past several months driving up prices.

 

[avenue94]

Did you really just link an article affirming my comments? Brilliant. Notice how this stacks up to MSRPs:

I interpet stopping several as being close two 6 months. At any rate, you still don't seem to grasp production timelines. If Nvidia stopped production in November, that means at least wo months to go from GPU to ODM then on a ship to the US or Europe. Which means merchants and brands still were getting orders in late Q4...aka Nvidia kept feeding the channel up until then, they didn't stop "several months ago."

Tariffs. New tariffs are only now going to be introduced. And if retailers bought a mass of stock to import to beat the expected incoming tariffs, then there wouldn't be a supply choke over the past several months driving up prices.

And here's again where you clearly didn't read. Some retailers and pretty much every PC company stockpiled in Q4. But stockpiling is very expensive, so you have to be selective. Ergo everyone stockpiled more important components and products than GPUs, because stockpiling GPUs doesn't make sense when you have limited funds to spend.

Gpu margins already suck, and demand is skewed toward consumer PCs this year.

 

[My Spot]

There's a dude on r/Microcenter who usually has reliable inside scoopz and he claims they've been hoarding AMD cards since December.

 

[Madmick]

There's a dude on r/Microcenter who usually has reliable inside scoopz and he claims they've been hoarding AMD cards since December.

LOL. But retailers "stockpiled more important components and products than GPUs"!

 

[My Spot]

Sometimes it sucks living close to a MC because they sure love to troll potential customers. "Congratulations, the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5090 24GB GDDR7 is now back in-stock at your preferred location!"

The "5090" that's "in-stock"