I see Aspinall vs N'Gannou as kinda 50/50. N'Gannou didn't have a lot of high level wins but he slaughtered Blaydes twice and beat Stipe in a rematch but beyond that? He mostly fought guys badly out of their primes (Arlovski, JDS, Cain) or just straight up low level guys. Beyond that he barely scraped by Gane and lost to Lewis. Even when he beat Stipe in the rematch, it was damaged goods...Stipe had been knocked out by Cormier and then they had two subsequent wars to wrap up the trilogy...Stipe pushing 40, had gotten knocked out and then rocked several times in 4 and 5 round wars leading up to the N'Gannou rematch.
Aspinalls resume is similar...he smashed Blaydes, Volkov and Pavlovitch but his run isn't a deep one either. Both guys merit is largely based off their massive athleticism at a weightclass that seriously lacks it. Aspinall is more multifaceted but we really don't have much to go off of to compare the two, neither guy has the best defense and I cant recall seeing either fella rocked in MMA?
Aspinall really needs the Jones fight to credif his legacy. Otherwise he's going to beat Gane and then what? Anyways it feels a little 50/50 to me.