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Brandon Royval vs Alexandre Pantoja/Kai Asakura Winner – First of, the booking in this division is an absolute mess. There, I said it. Booking Asakura for a title shot in a Las Vegas main event when there’s a contender eliminator involving a young Japanese star about to take place is just mind-blowing. Thankfully, Royval did the UFC a solid and beat up Taira, but the division is still a mess. Instead of Taira vs Albazi as a contender eliminator that would guarantee a fresh and new top contender, we’ve now got Royval (and the UFC) praying Pantoja loses – which he probably won’t – or else we get a very unappealing third fight between Royval and a dude who already beat him twice… Yeah, this, frankly, sucks. Between a dead title scene and rushing prospects far too fast, they’ve booked themselves into a corner, and booked that corner at the Apex. This division needs some high level help to deal with the chronically poor booking or they're going to have to purge it again because they've stumbled upon a champion too good for his own good.
Tatsuro Taira vs Steve Erceg – Taira on the mat is a wizard, on the feet he’s okay, but certainly not elite. His wrestling is good, but again, probably not elite, and that all showed against an imperfect (but still very, very good) Brandon Royval. I think Taira remains a top class prospect, and this fight might seem like a death knell for one of these guys, but really, I don’t see it that way. Taira and Erceg need seasoning. Forget perfect records, forget avoiding losing streaks, both fighters need high level experience, high level fights, and everything that comes with them, warts and all. Let’s start booking this damn division properly and stop trying to force an overnight hero: it’s not working, it won’t work, and it doesn’t deserve to work.
Jun Yong Park vs Kelvin Gastelum – Two guys who have had slightly strange runs in the UFC in my opinion, but are obviously inordinately tough opponents for the majority of the UFC roster (at least unranked guys). ‘The Iron Turtle’ is a grappler who doesn’t seem to be able to impose a grappling game but still chips away at dudes and does quite well at it, while KG is a tough-as-nails, high level fighter who has struggled not only with results, but weight issues. I think KG is a decent favourite here, but he BADLY needs some wins, god damn, he has tripped up time and time and time again at the top 15 level. Let him try to gain some momentum!
Brad Tavares vs Joe Pyfer – Yep, one of the big ones in terms of hype trains, ‘Be’ Joe Pyfer came up short against Jack Hermansson when the UFC tried to rush him a little, but he bounced back nicely with an R1KO of Marc-Andre Barriault. I like Brad Tavares next. Tavares can tough it out and would represent a big name scalp, but he is prone to being finished by heavy hitters – which is pretty much the perfect scenario for the UFC matchmakers. I don’t KNOW that he gets it done – but you can see Pyfer’s path to victory, which is more than I saw for him against Hermansson.
Chidi Njokuani vs Jingliang Li – Chidi moves on with a second successive win, but it wasn’t the barn burner that was hoped for against the durable Jared Gooden. He’s still a pretty good problem for many welterweights, but I’ll be honest: I’m sorta hoping ‘The Leech’ uses this opportunity to bounce back into the win column after back-to-back defeats to Daniel Rodriguez and Carlos Prates. I think ‘The Leech’ has plenty of good fights left in him, but at 36 he’s getting towards the fun fights circuit. Maybe it begins here? I think he draws something entertaining out of Chidi Njokuani who has just slowed down a little at 35 having gone the distance 3 times in his last 4 outings.
Jared Gooden vs Santiago Ponzinibbio – Loser leaves town fight? For sure! And if it’s Gooden, that will mean he has had two successive 1-3 runs in the UFC before being cut both times. He has to avoid that fate against the veteran Argentinian who has always been game but is struggling for form lately with just 1 win in his last 5. Perhaps Gooden can capitalize on that and claim a career-best win?
Grant Dawson vs Benoit St Denis – Two case studies in just how good you need to be to become a mainstay in the UFC rankings at 155 lbs, Grant Dawson was catapulted out of the rankings after a devastating TKO defeat to King Green in just 33 seconds, meanwhile Benoit has taken back-to-back hammerings against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. Benoit is still probably considered the higher level fighter, but on paper, in terms of records? I’m not sure it’s that clear cut. I also don’t know who would be the favourite here. I love this fight – how about you?
Rafa Garcia vs Ismael Bonfim – For whatever reason, Mexican Rafa Garcia isn’t part of the UFC Noche circuit, and maybe it’s because of the decisions? Perhaps not the most exciting fighter, the 4-4 Rafa Garcia is certainly game and a tough opponent for anyone looking to climb the ladder. Brazilian Ismael Bonfim is just such a beast, hungry for more after a 3-1 start to life in the UFC, but perhaps missing that marquee win. Benoit St Denis ran through Bonfim, Grant Dawson beat up Rafa Garcia… they’ve both tasted what it’s like to be in there with real top 15-type guys and come up short – who wins this range finder? For some reason, I think we’re getting blood here…
Daniel Rodriguez vs Jake Matthews – Two very experienced UFC welterweights, D-Rod and Jake Matthews feel like they’ve been around forever. Both are now coming off a win, both have had some rough results too, and both are just a little way away from getting a ranked opponent at this point. Congratulations to Rodriguez for getting back in the win column, he seems to have had some very odd situations like the Kevin Holland non-fight and the Gastelum 10 lbs ever fiasco to deal with. Let’s see if we can settle things down a bit and see if he can get on a roll again.
Alex Morono vs Philip Rowe – Morono is a reliable competitor who just had that one physical failure when his cardio let him down against Niko Price after a quick turnaround. Let’s not do that again. Give him a little bit of time off, he’s shown once again he can be very competitive against anyone not in the top 15, let’s see how he fares against Philip Rowe. Rowe has lost back-to-back decisions against Magny and Matthews, but before that was TKO’ing guys like Orion Cosce, Jason Witt and (yes) Niko Price. Rowe will have to find a way to avoid losing yet another defeat against a specialist in going the distance. Loser is on the verge of getting cut.
Ramazan Temirov vs Allan Nascimento – Temirov ripped through CJ Vergara and showed this big-record Kazakh native can CRACK! Awesome, so let’s put a jet pack on this kid and see if he can extend his 10-fight win streak against a dangerous Brazilian in Allan Nascimento. Winner gets a ranked opponent, that’s how fast we’re moving! Almabayev, you got company, kid!
CJ Vergara vs Edgar Chairez – I hate to say it, but it feels like a bit of a throwaway fight as two guys struggle to win at a relevant level at 125. I’d probably cut the loser, the winner really needs to start making statements though, as they’re just not inspiring better matchmaking at this point. Still. One more chance, eh?
Pat Sabatini vs Bryce Mitchell – Two big threats on the mat, Sabatini has a great overall record in the UFC of 8-2, Bryce sits at 7-2, both can be finished, but if you can’t get them out of there or impose your will on them, they just keep growing in threat. I wanna see this, honestly, this is a proper battle of two high quality grapplers, and I actually believe if it becomes the dreaded kickboxing bout between two grapplers, well… I actually don’t think that would suck this time either! I think they can do that, but I just don’t see them backing away from takedowns. Someone’s getting tapped with a ranking on the line, and I love it!
Jonathan Pearce vs Julian Erosa – JSP has slipped down the rankings after 3 straight defeats. His opponents have amounted to a bit of a murderer’s row, though, with Brito, Onama and now Sabatini – let’s not cut this kid, but he simply must show out against a veteran like Julian Erosa. Erosa is a devastating submission artist, but he’s equally prone to getting finished on the feet. Pearce needs to come in with a kill or be killed attitude, because Erosa always embraces the chaos!
Themba Gorimbo vs Carlston Harris – I’ve enjoyed Gorimbo’s build in the UFC, it’s been very well-executed from a matchmaking standpoint. He’s not my favourite type of fighter, but he has a cool story, so let’s keep backing him. Carlston Harris is a dangerous opponent for Themba with his grappling chops and finishing ability, but he’s also 37 and was a whisker away from losing to Jeremiah Wells before catching him in an R3 Anaconda. Carlston is a test, I don’t want any fodder, Themba either wins or learns as he continues his journey.
Niko Price vs Jeremiah Wells – Rebook it, I like it, it makes even more sense now Price is back in the losing column. Wells is on a two-fight skid of his own, they’re both best suited for veteran-level fights at this point IMO.
Junior Tafa vs Mario Pinto – I’m not a big fan of Junior Tafa after his previous performance (especially the after-fight attitude), but he earned a tough win tonight. Give him the promising-looking Mario Pinto, a guy who has patience in spades and can (as he proved on DWCS) still deliver clean KO’s. I think Pinto being the much better rounded fighter bodes badly for Tafa, but hey… these Tafa boys are just a few shots away from beating any inexperienced UFC heavyweight.
Sean Sharaf vs Danylo Voievodkin – Apologies to non-DWCS viewers, but Voievodkin is basically the unfancied heavyweight who put on a real show this year. He earned his place per the DWCS rules, so hey, let’s see how he does against Sean Sharaf who looked better than I think most expected tonight. Realistically, this is entry-level stuff, but hey – one of these guys could yet surprise us going forward.
Julia Polastri vs Diana Belbita – The Romanian “Warrior Princess” is struggling to stay afloat in the UFC and a second defeat to Molly McCann certainly didn’t help matters. Now just 2-5 in the UFC, Belbita would need to defy the odds and beat Brazilian Polastri in order to hang around – while Polastri looks to build on a good win tonight over Cory McKenna.
Cory McKenna vs Victoria Dudakova – A second defeat in a row for Cory McKenna, and against (IMO) quite a disappointing one. It’s just not coming together in the way I had expected from the Welsh fighter, but let’s show some patience here. She’s 25, she’s obviously working hard, let’s see how she does with a drop down in experience levels against Russian Dudakova. Dudakova just dropped her first loss to the always competitive Sam Hughes (her Elise Reed, I guess), who can get back in the win column here?
Cody Haddon vs Toshiomi Kazama – A pretty complete debut for Cody Haddon defeating and out-pacing a pretty difficult debut opponent. Haddon now has to enter deeper waters and build that resumé, and I like Toshiomi Kazama next. Kazama won for the first time in the UFC last time out, beating Charalampos Grigoriou by second round submission. Kazama needs to improve on his 1-2 mark in the UFC, however, and beating Haddon would be a pretty good feather in the cap at this level of the bantamweight division – but I think Haddon comes in a reasonable favourite and will be expected to keep rolling.
Dan Argueta – CUT! Dan Argueta’s UFC run has been an odd one with 2 NC’s across just 6 fights. Couple that with 3 defeats (albeit against good quality opposition) and we have a bit of a flop on our hands. I don’t dislike Argueta, but at 31 he’d need to be putting in a better run than this to be worth keeping around. In terms of making a regional run of 3-0 or something and getting back, getting cut at 31 isn’t the end of the world, though, so would like him to do just that. Get back in there.
Clayton Carpenter vs Matt Schnell – I thought Matt Schnell had retired, but he is currently ranked #14 which definitely seems to suggest otherwise. Schnell didn’t look too bad against Cody Durden but then made the most bizarre mistake when he shot a takedown that ended in disaster. Does he have another fight left in him? Can he avoid the same mistake against the lethal undefeated star on the rise? I think this is last chance saloon for Schnell if he wants another fight. I’ll credit him with taking at least one more.
Lucas Rocha vs Daniel Barez – Spaniard Barez beat Victor Altamirano last time to put to bed a disappointing debut performance where he gassed out. Lucas Rocha, a Brazilian with a big record came in and found out what the levels are here in the UFC by getting submitted for the first time. Gimme this fight in what should be a striking battle between a relative young gun in Rocha and a veteran of the regional scene in Barez.
Tatsuro Taira vs Steve Erceg – Taira on the mat is a wizard, on the feet he’s okay, but certainly not elite. His wrestling is good, but again, probably not elite, and that all showed against an imperfect (but still very, very good) Brandon Royval. I think Taira remains a top class prospect, and this fight might seem like a death knell for one of these guys, but really, I don’t see it that way. Taira and Erceg need seasoning. Forget perfect records, forget avoiding losing streaks, both fighters need high level experience, high level fights, and everything that comes with them, warts and all. Let’s start booking this damn division properly and stop trying to force an overnight hero: it’s not working, it won’t work, and it doesn’t deserve to work.
Jun Yong Park vs Kelvin Gastelum – Two guys who have had slightly strange runs in the UFC in my opinion, but are obviously inordinately tough opponents for the majority of the UFC roster (at least unranked guys). ‘The Iron Turtle’ is a grappler who doesn’t seem to be able to impose a grappling game but still chips away at dudes and does quite well at it, while KG is a tough-as-nails, high level fighter who has struggled not only with results, but weight issues. I think KG is a decent favourite here, but he BADLY needs some wins, god damn, he has tripped up time and time and time again at the top 15 level. Let him try to gain some momentum!
Brad Tavares vs Joe Pyfer – Yep, one of the big ones in terms of hype trains, ‘Be’ Joe Pyfer came up short against Jack Hermansson when the UFC tried to rush him a little, but he bounced back nicely with an R1KO of Marc-Andre Barriault. I like Brad Tavares next. Tavares can tough it out and would represent a big name scalp, but he is prone to being finished by heavy hitters – which is pretty much the perfect scenario for the UFC matchmakers. I don’t KNOW that he gets it done – but you can see Pyfer’s path to victory, which is more than I saw for him against Hermansson.
Chidi Njokuani vs Jingliang Li – Chidi moves on with a second successive win, but it wasn’t the barn burner that was hoped for against the durable Jared Gooden. He’s still a pretty good problem for many welterweights, but I’ll be honest: I’m sorta hoping ‘The Leech’ uses this opportunity to bounce back into the win column after back-to-back defeats to Daniel Rodriguez and Carlos Prates. I think ‘The Leech’ has plenty of good fights left in him, but at 36 he’s getting towards the fun fights circuit. Maybe it begins here? I think he draws something entertaining out of Chidi Njokuani who has just slowed down a little at 35 having gone the distance 3 times in his last 4 outings.
Jared Gooden vs Santiago Ponzinibbio – Loser leaves town fight? For sure! And if it’s Gooden, that will mean he has had two successive 1-3 runs in the UFC before being cut both times. He has to avoid that fate against the veteran Argentinian who has always been game but is struggling for form lately with just 1 win in his last 5. Perhaps Gooden can capitalize on that and claim a career-best win?
Grant Dawson vs Benoit St Denis – Two case studies in just how good you need to be to become a mainstay in the UFC rankings at 155 lbs, Grant Dawson was catapulted out of the rankings after a devastating TKO defeat to King Green in just 33 seconds, meanwhile Benoit has taken back-to-back hammerings against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. Benoit is still probably considered the higher level fighter, but on paper, in terms of records? I’m not sure it’s that clear cut. I also don’t know who would be the favourite here. I love this fight – how about you?
Rafa Garcia vs Ismael Bonfim – For whatever reason, Mexican Rafa Garcia isn’t part of the UFC Noche circuit, and maybe it’s because of the decisions? Perhaps not the most exciting fighter, the 4-4 Rafa Garcia is certainly game and a tough opponent for anyone looking to climb the ladder. Brazilian Ismael Bonfim is just such a beast, hungry for more after a 3-1 start to life in the UFC, but perhaps missing that marquee win. Benoit St Denis ran through Bonfim, Grant Dawson beat up Rafa Garcia… they’ve both tasted what it’s like to be in there with real top 15-type guys and come up short – who wins this range finder? For some reason, I think we’re getting blood here…
Daniel Rodriguez vs Jake Matthews – Two very experienced UFC welterweights, D-Rod and Jake Matthews feel like they’ve been around forever. Both are now coming off a win, both have had some rough results too, and both are just a little way away from getting a ranked opponent at this point. Congratulations to Rodriguez for getting back in the win column, he seems to have had some very odd situations like the Kevin Holland non-fight and the Gastelum 10 lbs ever fiasco to deal with. Let’s see if we can settle things down a bit and see if he can get on a roll again.
Alex Morono vs Philip Rowe – Morono is a reliable competitor who just had that one physical failure when his cardio let him down against Niko Price after a quick turnaround. Let’s not do that again. Give him a little bit of time off, he’s shown once again he can be very competitive against anyone not in the top 15, let’s see how he fares against Philip Rowe. Rowe has lost back-to-back decisions against Magny and Matthews, but before that was TKO’ing guys like Orion Cosce, Jason Witt and (yes) Niko Price. Rowe will have to find a way to avoid losing yet another defeat against a specialist in going the distance. Loser is on the verge of getting cut.
Ramazan Temirov vs Allan Nascimento – Temirov ripped through CJ Vergara and showed this big-record Kazakh native can CRACK! Awesome, so let’s put a jet pack on this kid and see if he can extend his 10-fight win streak against a dangerous Brazilian in Allan Nascimento. Winner gets a ranked opponent, that’s how fast we’re moving! Almabayev, you got company, kid!
CJ Vergara vs Edgar Chairez – I hate to say it, but it feels like a bit of a throwaway fight as two guys struggle to win at a relevant level at 125. I’d probably cut the loser, the winner really needs to start making statements though, as they’re just not inspiring better matchmaking at this point. Still. One more chance, eh?
Pat Sabatini vs Bryce Mitchell – Two big threats on the mat, Sabatini has a great overall record in the UFC of 8-2, Bryce sits at 7-2, both can be finished, but if you can’t get them out of there or impose your will on them, they just keep growing in threat. I wanna see this, honestly, this is a proper battle of two high quality grapplers, and I actually believe if it becomes the dreaded kickboxing bout between two grapplers, well… I actually don’t think that would suck this time either! I think they can do that, but I just don’t see them backing away from takedowns. Someone’s getting tapped with a ranking on the line, and I love it!
Jonathan Pearce vs Julian Erosa – JSP has slipped down the rankings after 3 straight defeats. His opponents have amounted to a bit of a murderer’s row, though, with Brito, Onama and now Sabatini – let’s not cut this kid, but he simply must show out against a veteran like Julian Erosa. Erosa is a devastating submission artist, but he’s equally prone to getting finished on the feet. Pearce needs to come in with a kill or be killed attitude, because Erosa always embraces the chaos!
Themba Gorimbo vs Carlston Harris – I’ve enjoyed Gorimbo’s build in the UFC, it’s been very well-executed from a matchmaking standpoint. He’s not my favourite type of fighter, but he has a cool story, so let’s keep backing him. Carlston Harris is a dangerous opponent for Themba with his grappling chops and finishing ability, but he’s also 37 and was a whisker away from losing to Jeremiah Wells before catching him in an R3 Anaconda. Carlston is a test, I don’t want any fodder, Themba either wins or learns as he continues his journey.
Niko Price vs Jeremiah Wells – Rebook it, I like it, it makes even more sense now Price is back in the losing column. Wells is on a two-fight skid of his own, they’re both best suited for veteran-level fights at this point IMO.
Junior Tafa vs Mario Pinto – I’m not a big fan of Junior Tafa after his previous performance (especially the after-fight attitude), but he earned a tough win tonight. Give him the promising-looking Mario Pinto, a guy who has patience in spades and can (as he proved on DWCS) still deliver clean KO’s. I think Pinto being the much better rounded fighter bodes badly for Tafa, but hey… these Tafa boys are just a few shots away from beating any inexperienced UFC heavyweight.
Sean Sharaf vs Danylo Voievodkin – Apologies to non-DWCS viewers, but Voievodkin is basically the unfancied heavyweight who put on a real show this year. He earned his place per the DWCS rules, so hey, let’s see how he does against Sean Sharaf who looked better than I think most expected tonight. Realistically, this is entry-level stuff, but hey – one of these guys could yet surprise us going forward.
Julia Polastri vs Diana Belbita – The Romanian “Warrior Princess” is struggling to stay afloat in the UFC and a second defeat to Molly McCann certainly didn’t help matters. Now just 2-5 in the UFC, Belbita would need to defy the odds and beat Brazilian Polastri in order to hang around – while Polastri looks to build on a good win tonight over Cory McKenna.
Cory McKenna vs Victoria Dudakova – A second defeat in a row for Cory McKenna, and against (IMO) quite a disappointing one. It’s just not coming together in the way I had expected from the Welsh fighter, but let’s show some patience here. She’s 25, she’s obviously working hard, let’s see how she does with a drop down in experience levels against Russian Dudakova. Dudakova just dropped her first loss to the always competitive Sam Hughes (her Elise Reed, I guess), who can get back in the win column here?
Cody Haddon vs Toshiomi Kazama – A pretty complete debut for Cody Haddon defeating and out-pacing a pretty difficult debut opponent. Haddon now has to enter deeper waters and build that resumé, and I like Toshiomi Kazama next. Kazama won for the first time in the UFC last time out, beating Charalampos Grigoriou by second round submission. Kazama needs to improve on his 1-2 mark in the UFC, however, and beating Haddon would be a pretty good feather in the cap at this level of the bantamweight division – but I think Haddon comes in a reasonable favourite and will be expected to keep rolling.
Dan Argueta – CUT! Dan Argueta’s UFC run has been an odd one with 2 NC’s across just 6 fights. Couple that with 3 defeats (albeit against good quality opposition) and we have a bit of a flop on our hands. I don’t dislike Argueta, but at 31 he’d need to be putting in a better run than this to be worth keeping around. In terms of making a regional run of 3-0 or something and getting back, getting cut at 31 isn’t the end of the world, though, so would like him to do just that. Get back in there.
Clayton Carpenter vs Matt Schnell – I thought Matt Schnell had retired, but he is currently ranked #14 which definitely seems to suggest otherwise. Schnell didn’t look too bad against Cody Durden but then made the most bizarre mistake when he shot a takedown that ended in disaster. Does he have another fight left in him? Can he avoid the same mistake against the lethal undefeated star on the rise? I think this is last chance saloon for Schnell if he wants another fight. I’ll credit him with taking at least one more.
Lucas Rocha vs Daniel Barez – Spaniard Barez beat Victor Altamirano last time to put to bed a disappointing debut performance where he gassed out. Lucas Rocha, a Brazilian with a big record came in and found out what the levels are here in the UFC by getting submitted for the first time. Gimme this fight in what should be a striking battle between a relative young gun in Rocha and a veteran of the regional scene in Barez.
