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- Jul 8, 2021
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Ilia Topuria – WAIT! And now, Holloway-Gaethje makes no sense at all. Yair-Ortega doesn’t make a contender. Evloev is maybe the next best contender? Volk to get a rematch? Whatever happens, it will be well after UFC 300 has been and gone.
Alexander Volkanovski – RECOVER! Take at least 9 months after back-to-back KO defeats. 12 months preferably.
Robert Whittaker vs Sean Strickland – What a huge fight this is, a non-title bout between two of the greatest 185ers in the sport. That was a hard fought win and I suspect Strickland might walk in here as favourite… but let’s just see what happens, styles make fights, and this is a beauty!
Paulo Costa vs Khamzat Chimaev – Run this bad boy in the UAE, a grudge match, and not the squash fight some thought a year or so ago. What a huge non-title main event this would be, or a co-main behind an Islam Makhachev title defence… we’re all gonna watch!
Ian Garry vs Colby Covington – Let’s go heel-heel and take this one to Dublin, Ireland! I think if you want a ‘star maker’ main event, this is the one that either establishes Garry as a top contender or ensures Colby maintains a level of relevancy at 170. Colby is a different stylistic challenge for Garry, but one that Leon Edwards passed, and given Garry still has under 15 fights worth of experience, it feels like a prerequisite to any talk of a title shot. *EDIT: Garry called out Colby after I wrote this, and only underlines all of the above*
Geoff Neal vs Randy Brown – Geoff Neal has now lost 4 of his last 6 fights, and as the UFC continue to match ranked welters against unranked welters, this one becomes more and more viable. Randy Brown’s KO of Muslim Salikhov got people talking, and while he’s lost to JDM and Luque in the past, Neal might just sink below both of those guys in the rankings – but only just.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley/Marlon Vera II Winner – Merab will run through them all until he gets his shot, and with Aljo moving up to 145, there’s no reason to deny this anymore. Merab is hittable and could be stopped, but that window is small. We’re probably looking at the next 135 champion.
Henry Cejudo – RETIRE! Henry is awesome, but he probably lost the desire four years ago. He retired once, came back, said he would retire if he lost here, and at 37 there is no reason for any other outcome. There are fights if he wants to make up the numbers, but I can’t see it. I think he becomes a very talented coach.
Anthony Hernandez vs Jack Hermansson – This is the bad boy for me, Fluffy broke Kopylov where Hermansson out-lasted Pyfer last time out. Both guys could theoretically fight upwards after defending their rankings, but in terms of the bigger picture this makes a ton of sense. Great stylistic match up between awesome grapplers with legit stand up chops, Hermansson the elder statesman, ‘Fluffy’ the upstart. Love this.
Roman Kopylov vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Both guys have been choked out by Hernandez, and both guys have come real close to the rankings. Kopylov is the cleaner striker, but Barriault (like Hernandez) will wear you down if you can’t get him out of there. This is the question Kopylov needs to answer and, in all honesty, he just might. He’s good.
Amanda Lemos vs Weili Zhang/Yan Xiaonan Loser – Controversial one, but Tatiana Suarez pulled out of this fight and potentially benefits with a title shot (in the interest of a fresh match up), while Lemos beats Tatiana’s replacement in Dern, and ends up fighting the loser. Most likely Lemos fights Yan, but it could be a rematch with Zhang if there’s a shock. Of course, Lemos vs Yan for the belt would make the most sense if Yan did in fact beat Zhang…
Mackenzie Dern vs Luana Pinheiro – Tough one for Dern, as she embarks upon the first multi-fight skid of her career. Dern has fought a who’s who at 115, and while Lemos proved a step too far, Mackenzie will have earned a lot more fans after her gutsy effort. Give her Luana Pinheiro next, who lost by spectacular TKO to Amanda Ribas last time, but is still ranked #9. Dern is a priority fighter in terms of wins and losses, and I do like her chances against Luana.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Justin Tafa – de Lima was way too experienced for Junior Tafa and beat him everywhere. Justin has been around way longer than Junior, though, despite Junior’s GLORY days. Can he avenge his brother who stepped in on late notice? I dunno, but it’s a fun storyline! There aren’t really many compelling fights for de Lima looking up the rankings, either, particularly with Nascimento also being at ATT. So yes, that leaves him defending his #15 ranking twice in a row.
Junior Tafa vs Thomas Peterson – Back to the drawing board for Tafa who is still worth trying to build up with some favourable matchmaking in my opinion. Reward him with an entry level fight and see if he can shine, he deserves it after saving this fight.
Rinya Nakamura vs Da’Mon Blackshear – Time to step it up a little, the babying of Nakamura isn’t really producing what the matchmakers were probably hoping for, as he failed to pour it on against an injured Carlos Vera. Da’Mon Blackshear is a powerful guy, but really shouldn’t be a problem for Rinya if Nakamura is all that – but he would be a significant feather in the cap in terms of climbing the ladder and fighting more experienced opponents. I think he can make the jump.
Carlos Vera vs Gaston Bolanos – Sometimes when you try and fish for low percentage subs (even if you’re good at them) you wind up looking really bad. That was Vera tonight, against a really defensively sound wrestler in Nakamura. No problem. Once Vera deals with his shoulder issue, put him in there with Gaston, a kickboxer who will have to answer both the TKD kicking game and leglock submission chops if he’s to prove he’s UFC level. Neither look like great prospects, but it could still be an interesting styles clash.
Mingyang Zhang vs Nicolae Negumereanu – Mingyang Zhang slipping behind a little until he landed and starched Ribeiro in brutal fashion! I’m not sure how far this guy can go, but with that finishing ability he’s going to be a ton of fun regardless! Give him Negu next, Nicolae is tough but beatable, and if Zhang can beat a guy who is 4-2 in the UFC who once had a 4-fight win streak, that will be BIG news for Zhang!
Brendson Ribeiro vs Jose Medina – For those that don’t remember, Medina was the Bolivian guy who lost on DWCS but still got a contract. Who knows if he ever makes it at UFC level, but given how top heavy 205 seems right now, Ribeiro might just be the lowest level guy he can draw, which is kind of bizarre. Ribeiro is a true glass cannon, let’s see what he does here.
Danny Barlow vs Charlie Radtke – Radtke has come into the UFC and beaten Blood Diamond and Gilbert Urbina back-to-back, two recognisable fighters in the welterweight division. The heavy hitter is 33, though, so I’d like to see him face a guy like Barlow who looks like he might be something a little bit special. Yes, it’s early days for Barlow, but if he could pick apart a tough, rugged dude like Radtke, we’d know he might have a high ceiling… let’s see if he can grab that momentum from loudmouth ‘Chuck Buffalo’ or if Charlie keeps on rolling.
Josh Quinlan vs Kiefer Crosbie – Two guys who outside of the ‘prospect’ bracket given they haven’t really got going at a high level and are 31 and 33 years old respectively. There’s a decent chance of a finish, too, as generally most of their fights end inside the distance. Just give Quinlan a little time to recover, first…
Oban Elliott vs Themba Gorimbo – I feel Gorimbo is the one that the UFC will be most interested in building, but he still has to prove he’s UFC calibre as he’s been getting some lay ups in my opinion. Oban Elliott is better than Rodriguez and Takashi Sato who was on a Sam Alvey-style skid, but he still looked workmanlike at best tonight. Gorimbo should be able to roll here, if not, Oban snatches a little bit of the limelight from The Rock’s boy.
Val Woodburn vs Pete Rodriguez – An Apex opener if there ever was one, these two are both low level, low record fighters. Loser leaves town (if they don’t leave beforehand that is…)
Miranda Maverick vs Casey O’Neill – Pretty cool chance for the UFC to match two 26 year old ranked flyweights and emphasise that there are some good young fighters in the 125 division. O’Neill is ranked #13 but has lost 2 straight, Maverick likely arrives as the #15 after deposing Andrea Lee and winning 2 straight. Does momentum take Maverick past O’Neill, or does Casey bounce back?
Andrea Lee – CUT! No longer ranked and having lost 4 straight, there’s a small chance Lee is given an easier fight and allowed to build back (it’s happened before with fighters like Kowalkiewicz), but it’s just as likely she gets cut. At 35 and without putting out much in terms of exciting action, I think ‘cut’ is the right call.
Alexander Volkanovski – RECOVER! Take at least 9 months after back-to-back KO defeats. 12 months preferably.
Robert Whittaker vs Sean Strickland – What a huge fight this is, a non-title bout between two of the greatest 185ers in the sport. That was a hard fought win and I suspect Strickland might walk in here as favourite… but let’s just see what happens, styles make fights, and this is a beauty!
Paulo Costa vs Khamzat Chimaev – Run this bad boy in the UAE, a grudge match, and not the squash fight some thought a year or so ago. What a huge non-title main event this would be, or a co-main behind an Islam Makhachev title defence… we’re all gonna watch!
Ian Garry vs Colby Covington – Let’s go heel-heel and take this one to Dublin, Ireland! I think if you want a ‘star maker’ main event, this is the one that either establishes Garry as a top contender or ensures Colby maintains a level of relevancy at 170. Colby is a different stylistic challenge for Garry, but one that Leon Edwards passed, and given Garry still has under 15 fights worth of experience, it feels like a prerequisite to any talk of a title shot. *EDIT: Garry called out Colby after I wrote this, and only underlines all of the above*
Geoff Neal vs Randy Brown – Geoff Neal has now lost 4 of his last 6 fights, and as the UFC continue to match ranked welters against unranked welters, this one becomes more and more viable. Randy Brown’s KO of Muslim Salikhov got people talking, and while he’s lost to JDM and Luque in the past, Neal might just sink below both of those guys in the rankings – but only just.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley/Marlon Vera II Winner – Merab will run through them all until he gets his shot, and with Aljo moving up to 145, there’s no reason to deny this anymore. Merab is hittable and could be stopped, but that window is small. We’re probably looking at the next 135 champion.
Henry Cejudo – RETIRE! Henry is awesome, but he probably lost the desire four years ago. He retired once, came back, said he would retire if he lost here, and at 37 there is no reason for any other outcome. There are fights if he wants to make up the numbers, but I can’t see it. I think he becomes a very talented coach.
Anthony Hernandez vs Jack Hermansson – This is the bad boy for me, Fluffy broke Kopylov where Hermansson out-lasted Pyfer last time out. Both guys could theoretically fight upwards after defending their rankings, but in terms of the bigger picture this makes a ton of sense. Great stylistic match up between awesome grapplers with legit stand up chops, Hermansson the elder statesman, ‘Fluffy’ the upstart. Love this.
Roman Kopylov vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Both guys have been choked out by Hernandez, and both guys have come real close to the rankings. Kopylov is the cleaner striker, but Barriault (like Hernandez) will wear you down if you can’t get him out of there. This is the question Kopylov needs to answer and, in all honesty, he just might. He’s good.
Amanda Lemos vs Weili Zhang/Yan Xiaonan Loser – Controversial one, but Tatiana Suarez pulled out of this fight and potentially benefits with a title shot (in the interest of a fresh match up), while Lemos beats Tatiana’s replacement in Dern, and ends up fighting the loser. Most likely Lemos fights Yan, but it could be a rematch with Zhang if there’s a shock. Of course, Lemos vs Yan for the belt would make the most sense if Yan did in fact beat Zhang…
Mackenzie Dern vs Luana Pinheiro – Tough one for Dern, as she embarks upon the first multi-fight skid of her career. Dern has fought a who’s who at 115, and while Lemos proved a step too far, Mackenzie will have earned a lot more fans after her gutsy effort. Give her Luana Pinheiro next, who lost by spectacular TKO to Amanda Ribas last time, but is still ranked #9. Dern is a priority fighter in terms of wins and losses, and I do like her chances against Luana.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Justin Tafa – de Lima was way too experienced for Junior Tafa and beat him everywhere. Justin has been around way longer than Junior, though, despite Junior’s GLORY days. Can he avenge his brother who stepped in on late notice? I dunno, but it’s a fun storyline! There aren’t really many compelling fights for de Lima looking up the rankings, either, particularly with Nascimento also being at ATT. So yes, that leaves him defending his #15 ranking twice in a row.
Junior Tafa vs Thomas Peterson – Back to the drawing board for Tafa who is still worth trying to build up with some favourable matchmaking in my opinion. Reward him with an entry level fight and see if he can shine, he deserves it after saving this fight.
Rinya Nakamura vs Da’Mon Blackshear – Time to step it up a little, the babying of Nakamura isn’t really producing what the matchmakers were probably hoping for, as he failed to pour it on against an injured Carlos Vera. Da’Mon Blackshear is a powerful guy, but really shouldn’t be a problem for Rinya if Nakamura is all that – but he would be a significant feather in the cap in terms of climbing the ladder and fighting more experienced opponents. I think he can make the jump.
Carlos Vera vs Gaston Bolanos – Sometimes when you try and fish for low percentage subs (even if you’re good at them) you wind up looking really bad. That was Vera tonight, against a really defensively sound wrestler in Nakamura. No problem. Once Vera deals with his shoulder issue, put him in there with Gaston, a kickboxer who will have to answer both the TKD kicking game and leglock submission chops if he’s to prove he’s UFC level. Neither look like great prospects, but it could still be an interesting styles clash.
Mingyang Zhang vs Nicolae Negumereanu – Mingyang Zhang slipping behind a little until he landed and starched Ribeiro in brutal fashion! I’m not sure how far this guy can go, but with that finishing ability he’s going to be a ton of fun regardless! Give him Negu next, Nicolae is tough but beatable, and if Zhang can beat a guy who is 4-2 in the UFC who once had a 4-fight win streak, that will be BIG news for Zhang!
Brendson Ribeiro vs Jose Medina – For those that don’t remember, Medina was the Bolivian guy who lost on DWCS but still got a contract. Who knows if he ever makes it at UFC level, but given how top heavy 205 seems right now, Ribeiro might just be the lowest level guy he can draw, which is kind of bizarre. Ribeiro is a true glass cannon, let’s see what he does here.
Danny Barlow vs Charlie Radtke – Radtke has come into the UFC and beaten Blood Diamond and Gilbert Urbina back-to-back, two recognisable fighters in the welterweight division. The heavy hitter is 33, though, so I’d like to see him face a guy like Barlow who looks like he might be something a little bit special. Yes, it’s early days for Barlow, but if he could pick apart a tough, rugged dude like Radtke, we’d know he might have a high ceiling… let’s see if he can grab that momentum from loudmouth ‘Chuck Buffalo’ or if Charlie keeps on rolling.
Josh Quinlan vs Kiefer Crosbie – Two guys who outside of the ‘prospect’ bracket given they haven’t really got going at a high level and are 31 and 33 years old respectively. There’s a decent chance of a finish, too, as generally most of their fights end inside the distance. Just give Quinlan a little time to recover, first…
Oban Elliott vs Themba Gorimbo – I feel Gorimbo is the one that the UFC will be most interested in building, but he still has to prove he’s UFC calibre as he’s been getting some lay ups in my opinion. Oban Elliott is better than Rodriguez and Takashi Sato who was on a Sam Alvey-style skid, but he still looked workmanlike at best tonight. Gorimbo should be able to roll here, if not, Oban snatches a little bit of the limelight from The Rock’s boy.
Val Woodburn vs Pete Rodriguez – An Apex opener if there ever was one, these two are both low level, low record fighters. Loser leaves town (if they don’t leave beforehand that is…)
Miranda Maverick vs Casey O’Neill – Pretty cool chance for the UFC to match two 26 year old ranked flyweights and emphasise that there are some good young fighters in the 125 division. O’Neill is ranked #13 but has lost 2 straight, Maverick likely arrives as the #15 after deposing Andrea Lee and winning 2 straight. Does momentum take Maverick past O’Neill, or does Casey bounce back?
Andrea Lee – CUT! No longer ranked and having lost 4 straight, there’s a small chance Lee is given an easier fight and allowed to build back (it’s happened before with fighters like Kowalkiewicz), but it’s just as likely she gets cut. At 35 and without putting out much in terms of exciting action, I think ‘cut’ is the right call.
