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Physical prime is typically starting at 27-28, bro. Of course, you'll get conflicting information from different sources, but early 30's is not when most people start to decline. Mid to late 30's is. The top endurance athletes are actually mostly in their 40's, and I would absolutely consider MMA an endurance sport. Not strictly, of course, and muscle strength + reflexes are definitely needed. Let's take a look at current UFC champions, though, just for shits and giggles:
- Heavyweight Champion: Stipe Miocic (19-3) - 38 years old
- Light-heavyweight Champion: Jan Blachowicz (27-8-0) - 37 years old - Jon Jones - 33 years old
- Middleweight Champion: Israel Adesanya (20-0) - 31 years old
- Welterweight Champion: Kamaru Usman (16-1) - 33 years old
- Lightweight Champion: Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0) - 32 years old
- Featherweight Champion: Alexander Volkanovski (21-1) - 32 years old
- Bantamweight Champion: Petr Yan (15-1-0) - 27 years old Henry Cejudo - 32 years old
- Flyweight Champion: Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1-0) - 32 years old
- Women’s Featherweight/Bantamweight Champion: Amanda Nunes (19-4) - 32 years old
- Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko (20-3) - 32 years old
- Women’s Strawweight Champion: Zhang Weili (21-1) - 31 years old
I mean, that pretty much says it all, brother. There's literally ONE champion under 31 years of age, and he is essentially champion by default since Cejudo (early 30's) gave up his belts.
31-33 is PRIME fighting age. This is not coincidental.
None of those fighters have been top five for ten years -- as I said, the ten year rule seems to be the overriding principle involved. Anderson, Fedor, Penn, Hughes, Aldo, GSP (well, actually he retired before ten years at the top, then came back, but was already looking worse in his last fights against Condit and Hendricks before, and was losing against Bisping until he landed that hook) all started losing regularly after ten years.
In the case of MMA, I'd argue most are physically declining after 28, but because they started MMA later on (in their 20's in most cases and some in their mid-20's) they're still gaining skills at age 31-33 which can compensate for decreasing physical ability. Compare that to say basketball, where everyone starts much younger (early teens if not sooner), and so already have top level skills by the time they hit prime age -- which is why its been a long time since someone over the age of 30 won the NBA MVP -- even Lebron was able to win 4 MVP's in his 20's, but none since turning 30 (he's 35 now).
Fighters who started MMA younger (Fedor, GSP, Aldo) drop out of their peak earlier (ie after ten years in the top three). I'm trying to think of a single fighter who was rated top three for over ten years -- Shogun comes the closest of the ones I can think of, but even he doesn't make it (GSP's retirement ranking doesn't really count -- though he was rated as a top WW for the four years he was retired, I think that was silly).
Fedor lasted about ten years as a top three HW. That fits into the ten year rule very well. It also fits into the same best before age 30 rule that applies to 90% of Olympic medalists, 90% of NBA MVP's, to HW boxers like Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier and Mike Tyson (each of which was a better natural athlete than Fedor but still had fallen off alot by their early 30's).
Beyond that, even one of the articles you linked said that athletic longevity was tied to genetics -- unless every fighter has the same genetics, it'd be very strange if they all had the same longevity. The average life expectancy for a man is about 80 years (varying a bit between countries), and most are still healthy at age 50. Does that mean that every man is going to be healthy at age 50? Obviously not, because some clearly age more quickly than that (even dying of natural causes before 50). Expecting every athlete to have aged the same way to age 30 is making the same error as expecting each of them to age the same way to age 50, or 80, or 100.
You could argue that not aging well is a mark against an athlete (I've seen it used as an argument against Bobby Orr in hockey and Sandy Koufax in baseball -- ie a shortened career due to injury reduced their greatness), though in Fedor's case ten years as a top 3 HW is as long a time in the top e as anyone else.
You do raise an interesting point about age for different sports. I noticed that the average age of equestrian riders and golfer's is considerably older than the 26 for most high level athletes, and of course, for women's gymnastics the average age is about 15. However, my guess is that the ten year rules (ie max of ten years as a top three in the world competitor) holds pretty well in those as well.
I suspect there are exceptions to the ten years as top 3 in world rule. I think there was a discuss thrower (Al Oerter) who won gold in 4 Olympics (ie top 3 for at least 16 years), and Karelin in wrestling won 3 gold and silver (ie top 3 for at least 16 years), but I don't know of any in MMA.
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