Elections European parliamentary elections: What a right-wing surge could mean for the EU

[LeonardoBjj]

Polls show that Europe is facing a potential shift to the right in elections set for June 6-9, when millions of EU citizens will vote to elect new members of the European Parliament, a body crucial for shaping the bloc’s policies. With far-right parties likely to win greater influence, the vote could significantly affect political dynamics within the EU and its policies abroad.

By:Lara BULLENS

As the world’s second-largest democratic vote after India, the European elections have the power to reshape the political landscape across the continent and beyond. From June 6-9, approximately 400 million EU citizens will head to the polls to elect new members of the European Parliament (MEPs).

The 720 legislators in the new parliament will have the power to shape policies on climate, migration, industry, defence and security. But they will also vote on what should be prioritised in the EU budget, which can be essential to policies like providing aid for Ukraine.

Once elected, MEPs will join supranational parliamentary “groups” according to ideology (greens, socialists, centre-right, far-right, etc.). The two largest parliamentary groups are usually the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D). But right-wing parties have been making significant inroads and are expected to do well in 2024, with the far-right Identity and Democracy party possibly becoming the third-largest group in the European Parliament.

A coalition of centre-right Christian democrats, conservatives and right-wing MEPs could thus be on track to hold a majority for the first time.

• Foreign policy​

The influence that the European Parliament has on foreign policy is overshadowed by the European Council, which is made up of leaders from the 27 members states and has the final say on foreign policy. It is up to member states to decide jointly on sending munitions to Ukraine or to agree on imposing EU sanctions against Russia, for example.

“MEPs can vote on resolutions and political groups can put out calls to try and push something in a certain direction, but as such they do not have much competence on foreign policy,” says Sebastien Maillard, associate fellow of the Europe programme at international affairs think-tank Chatham House.

That does not mean the European Parliament is powerless on foreign policy, however. And as one arm of the EU’s budgetary authority, it has a say on EU spending priorities.

If the assembly sees a large shift to the right after the elections in June, calls for the EU to supply military assistance to Ukraine or humanitarian aid to Gaza could dwindle.

Political groups setting the agenda in the next European Parliament are likely to maintain their current stance on Ukraine. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Western states have backed military, financial and strategic aid for Kyiv.

But with a growing number of right-wing MEPs likely to join the assembly this year, Europe's staunchly pro-Ukrainian stance may begin to falter, given that many on the right are sympathetic to Russia.

National parties may also weaken their backing for Ukraine as a response to the shift in voter attitudes in the European elections; if voters opt for more pro-Russian MEPs, European leaders may be less staunch on the decision to back Ukraine.

How far could the far right go? European elections could shift balance of power in Brussels

Broader shifts to the right across Europe could have even greater impact. “There will be national elections in Belgium on June 9th. There are upcoming elections in Austria. And there is a new government in the Netherlands," Maillard notes.

"In those three examples, the far-right is expected to be either at the head of, or involved with, the governments.”

• Environmental policy​

The direction of internal EU policy is largely shaped by the most powerful political groups, who generally make their demands known immediately following European elections. In 2019, for example, a Green Deal policy package was launched to tackle climate change and achieve EU-wide carbon neutrality by 2050. But with polls suggesting the new centre of gravity in the assembly will move away from the greens and towards more hard-right views, policy on issues like the environment are at risk of changing.

In line with the ambitious goal of reaching carbon neutrality, EU lawmakers last year agreed to phase out sales of fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2035. Drivers would still be able to buy petrol and diesel cars second-hand, but carmakers could not introduce new polluting models into the market after the cut-off date in just over 10 years.

MEPs are going to reconfirm the 2035 ban in a vote the year after next, says Maillard. “If the greens lose out and the European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) make gains, as is predicted, conservatives will probably try to delay or postpone that cut-off date.”

The same goes for a shift to organic agriculture, Maillard says. After a recent EU-wide wave of farmers' protests put agriculture high on the political agenda, the new assembly will have the gargantuan task of finding a balance between policy reforms that work for farmers and minimising the damage agriculture could have on the environment.

Many of the EU votes on protecting the environment and combating climate change have been won by small margins. A landmark bill aimed at restoring damaged ecosystems across the continent was finally approved in February this year after being put in jeopardy by the conservative European People’s Party. The text was passed thanks to approval by 329 MEPs to the 275 voted who against; it will come into force once EU states formally adopt the measure.

“[If conservatives win], the whole de-carbonisation ... of our economies would be slowed down,” Maillard warns. “That is where MEPs have lots of power.”

 

[LeonardoBjj]

• Migration and asylum policies​

Maillard predicts that other issues – like the respect of the rule of law, migration and EU integration – are also likely to be contentious topics with a shift to the right in parliament.

If the current centre-left majorities are overtaken by a new populist-right coalition, EU migration and asylum policies are likely to see an overhaul. This includes a near-definite reform of the asylum bill approved on May 14 that lays out rules for the 27 member states on how to handle unauthorised arrivals.

The new bill will enter force in 2026 and is already more restrictive than previous regulations, which have not been updated for about two decades. Its aim is to combat illegal migration and speed up the deportation process by issuing an automatic order to leave the territory once an asylum request is refused.

But almost as soon as the bill was adopted, a group of 15 member states led by Denmark sent a letter to the European Commission calling for even tighter regulations, including outsourcing migration and asylum screenings.

“For many member states, Europe has not gone far enough on the security front. Migration will remain a key challenge for the next Parliament, with a clear divide between the left and right,” Ségolène Barbou des Places, director of the EU research network Euro-Lab, told FRANCE 24 in late May.

“There is one obsession: to do everything possible to prevent migrants from arriving on European soil,” she said.

The ECR, the far-right Identity and Democracy party, and some members of the EPP are also decidedly Eurosceptic and are likely to seek more economic freedom and less regulation. Such groups are not likely to back proposals from the European Commission for more common rules and integration. National governments like Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Sweden are already calling for less interference from the EU in their national policies.

- Migrants send a kiss to Europeans
“Some believe in cooperation between European states, but do not favour integration,” Maillard says.

• Choosing a new European Commission president​

The outcome of the European elections will affect who becomes the next president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm in charge of proposing new legislation, considered the most powerful position at the EU level.

While it is the European Council that proposes a candidate for commission president, it is obliged to take “into account” parliamentary election results. And the candidate must then be approved by a majority vote at the European Parliament.

Dani Elle Speegle
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking a second term, comes from the largest group in the European Parliament, the European People's Party.

“For now, the EPP are leading in the polls and Ursula von der Leyen is part of that group. She is still the main contender,” says Maillard.

“Even if the two most right-wing groups (the ECR and Identity and Democracy) score well – and even if they end up merging, which looks almost impossible – they would still not have more seats than the EPP,” he explains.

- Natural bodybuilder Michael: - I expect some hot migrants ladies. But they come? No! We get some guys whose ballsacks are hairy than a poodle head!
However, in order for her to win a third term she will have to seek support beyond this – and her victory is not assured. A European diplomat told French daily Le Monde last week that she is missing “around fifty votes” – so right-wing groups winning a majority could still choose a Eurosceptic, anti-immigration or pro-Russian candidate to be the next European Commission president.

That is why von der Leyen has been courting right-wing EU leaders. While she has ruled out a pact with the most extreme-right Identity and Democracy group, she was more equivocal when it came to working with the far-right ECR. In April, she told a debate audience that a collaboration with ECR depends very much on what the composition of the new Parliament is, “and who is in what group”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned von der Leyen last week not to seek support from far-right parties, a warning echoed by socialists, greens and liberals in the European Parliament.

Mexican cousins that migrated to Europe in the hopes to repopulate the continent!

“When the next European Commission is formed, it must not rest on the support of a parliamentary majority that also needs the support of right-wing extremists,” Scholz said after talks with his Portuguese counterpart Luis Montenegro in Berlin on May 24.

“I am very saddened by the ambiguity of some of the political statements that we have heard recently. But I am clear about this, and it will only be possible to establish a presidency of the European Commission that rests on the support of the traditional parties,” Scholz said.

“Anything else would be a mistake for the future of Europe,” he added.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...what-a-right-wing-surge-could-mean-for-the-eu

 

[Oddmonster]

• Migration and asylum policies​

Maillard predicts that other issues – like the respect of the rule of law, migration and EU integration – are also likely to be contentious topics with a shift to the right in parliament.

If the current centre-left majorities are overtaken by a new populist-right coalition, EU migration and asylum policies are likely to see an overhaul. This includes a near-definite reform of the asylum bill approved on May 14 that lays out rules for the 27 member states on how to handle unauthorised arrivals.

The new bill will enter force in 2026 and is already more restrictive than previous regulations, which have not been updated for about two decades. Its aim is to combat illegal migration and speed up the deportation process by issuing an automatic order to leave the territory once an asylum request is refused.

But almost as soon as the bill was adopted, a group of 15 member states led by Denmark sent a letter to the European Commission calling for even tighter regulations, including outsourcing migration and asylum screenings.

“For many member states, Europe has not gone far enough on the security front. Migration will remain a key challenge for the next Parliament, with a clear divide between the left and right,” Ségolène Barbou des Places, director of the EU research network Euro-Lab, told FRANCE 24 in late May.

“There is one obsession: to do everything possible to prevent migrants from arriving on European soil,” she said.

The ECR, the far-right Identity and Democracy party, and some members of the EPP are also decidedly Eurosceptic and are likely to seek more economic freedom and less regulation. Such groups are not likely to back proposals from the European Commission for more common rules and integration. National governments like Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Sweden are already calling for less interference from the EU in their national policies.

- Migrants send a kiss to Europeans
“Some believe in cooperation between European states, but do not favour integration,” Maillard says.

• Choosing a new European Commission president​

The outcome of the European elections will affect who becomes the next president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm in charge of proposing new legislation, considered the most powerful position at the EU level.

While it is the European Council that proposes a candidate for commission president, it is obliged to take “into account” parliamentary election results. And the candidate must then be approved by a majority vote at the European Parliament.

Dani Elle Speegle
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking a second term, comes from the largest group in the European Parliament, the European People's Party.

“For now, the EPP are leading in the polls and Ursula von der Leyen is part of that group. She is still the main contender,” says Maillard.

“Even if the two most right-wing groups (the ECR and Identity and Democracy) score well – and even if they end up merging, which looks almost impossible – they would still not have more seats than the EPP,” he explains.

- Natural bodybuilder Michael: - I expect some hot migrants ladies. But they come? No! We get some guys whose ballsacks are hairy than a poodle head!
However, in order for her to win a third term she will have to seek support beyond this – and her victory is not assured. A European diplomat told French daily Le Monde last week that she is missing “around fifty votes” – so right-wing groups winning a majority could still choose a Eurosceptic, anti-immigration or pro-Russian candidate to be the next European Commission president.

That is why von der Leyen has been courting right-wing EU leaders. While she has ruled out a pact with the most extreme-right Identity and Democracy group, she was more equivocal when it came to working with the far-right ECR. In April, she told a debate audience that a collaboration with ECR depends very much on what the composition of the new Parliament is, “and who is in what group”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned von der Leyen last week not to seek support from far-right parties, a warning echoed by socialists, greens and liberals in the European Parliament.

Mexican cousins that migrated to Europe in the hopes to repopulate the continent!

“When the next European Commission is formed, it must not rest on the support of a parliamentary majority that also needs the support of right-wing extremists,” Scholz said after talks with his Portuguese counterpart Luis Montenegro in Berlin on May 24.

“I am very saddened by the ambiguity of some of the political statements that we have heard recently. But I am clear about this, and it will only be possible to establish a presidency of the European Commission that rests on the support of the traditional parties,” Scholz said.

“Anything else would be a mistake for the future of Europe,” he added.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...what-a-right-wing-surge-could-mean-for-the-eu

If more countries in the EU go the rightwing way, EU will stop existing. It will be like Brexit, where everything just turns to shit, and the people responsible will be pointing fingers at each other, and especially immigrants, and blame them for everything even though people told them exaxtly what would happen.

The only thing that keeps conservative looking like they are worth anything, is that they can blame everything on everyone else. They have no ideas, or plans for the future. And they all have this idea of closed borders and how that will save their country.

And conservatives, based on data, are just less educated which explains why they are so goddamn stupid.

"Highly educated adults – particularly those who have attended graduate school – are far more likely than those with less education to take predominantly liberal positions across a range of political values. And these differences have increased over the past two decades."

A Wider Ideological Gap Between More and Less Educated Adults

Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines than at any point in the previous two decades. But there are also growing ideological divisions along educational and generational lines.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[SandisLL]

If more countries in the EU go the rightwing way, EU will stop existing. It will be like Brexit, where everything just turns to shit, and the people responsible will be pointing fingers at each other, and especially immigrants, and blame them for everything even though people told them exaxtly what would happen.

The only thing that keeps conservative looking like they are worth anything, is that they can blame everything on everyone else. They have no ideas, or plans for the future. And they all have this idea of closed borders and how that will save their country.

And conservatives, based on data, are just less educated which explains why they are so goddamn stupid.

"Highly educated adults – particularly those who have attended graduate school – are far more likely than those with less education to take predominantly liberal positions across a range of political values. And these differences have increased over the past two decades."

A Wider Ideological Gap Between More and Less Educated Adults

Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines than at any point in the previous two decades. But there are also growing ideological divisions along educational and generational lines.

www.pewresearch.org

Well, there are other obstacles rather than who is elected in EP.
EP might impact collective decisions . .while countries are able to do decisions also on individual basis and there. . ..

I might tell that Ukr does have 0 chances to be EU full member during next 4 -5 years.

If far right or far left will win...Ukr will not get further funding from collective funds, while decisions to fund might be done on individual basis and this EP can't prevent....

 

[Scheme]

If more countries in the EU go the rightwing way, EU will stop existing. It will be like Brexit, where everything just turns to shit, and the people responsible will be pointing fingers at each other, and especially immigrants, and blame them for everything even though people told them exaxtly what would happen.

The only thing that keeps conservative looking like they are worth anything, is that they can blame everything on everyone else. They have no ideas, or plans for the future. And they all have this idea of closed borders and how that will save their country.

And conservatives, based on data, are just less educated which explains why they are so goddamn stupid.

"Highly educated adults – particularly those who have attended graduate school – are far more likely than those with less education to take predominantly liberal positions across a range of political values. And these differences have increased over the past two decades."

A Wider Ideological Gap Between More and Less Educated Adults

Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines than at any point in the previous two decades. But there are also growing ideological divisions along educational and generational lines.

www.pewresearch.org

I agree that left-wing institutions tend to indoctrinate students into left-wing ways of thinking. Departments that are like 99% left-leaning do tend to output people who are... left-leaning!

Right-wing parties have plenty of things they want to do. It's not their fault you are too lazy to look up their platforms.

Most EU citizens liked the idea of the EU until about a decade ago. They want the benefits of free-trade and movement within Europe. They do not want to be dictated upon to take on millions of random people into their countries at the behest of some random country's official sitting in Brussels. Or to literally be forced to stop producing food and energy for their country to adhere to satisfy some ridiculous climate change metric. Who needs food and electricity to live these days?

 

[Oddmonster]

I agree that left-wing institutions tend to indoctrinate students into left-wing ways of thinking. Departments that are like 99% left-leaning do tend to output people who are... left-leaning!

Right-wing parties have plenty of things they want to do. It's not their fault you are too lazy to look up their platforms.

Most EU citizens liked the idea of the EU until about a decade ago. They want the benefits of free-trade and movement within Europe. They do not want to be dictated upon to take on millions of random people into their countries at the behest of some random country's official sitting in Brussels. Or to literally be forced to stop producing food and energy for their country to adhere to satisfy some ridiculous climate change metric. Who needs food and electricity to live these days?

Bla bla bla

The U.K got their brexit, and have conservative government, and they are still whining while their country turns to shit around them.
You guys lack of understanding of how things works is both entertaining and sad. But hey, as long as you can shit in your own hands and blame the evil immigrants for it, all is good.

 

[Oddmonster]

Well, there are other obstacles rather than who is elected in EP.
EP might impact collective decisions . .while countries are able to do decisions also on individual basis and there. . ..

I might tell that Ukr does have 0 chances to be EU full member during next 4 -5 years.

If far right or far left will win...Ukr will not get further funding from collective funds, while decisions to fund might be done on individual basis and this EP can't prevent....

Yeah, becomming EU member takes a lot of time. That a lot of EU countries has signed long term ukraine support "contracts" makes me happy.

All these fucking morons that do not understand what will happen if Russia wins make me angry, luckily they are still outnumbered.

Slava Ukraina

 

[SandisLL]

---

I agree that left-wing institutions tend to indoctrinate students into left-wing ways of thinking. Departments that are like 99% left-leaning do tend to output people who are... left-leaning!

Right-wing parties have plenty of things they want to do. It's not their fault you are too lazy to look up their platforms.

Most EU citizens liked the idea of the EU until about a decade ago. They want the benefits of free-trade and movement within Europe. They do not want to be dictated upon to take on millions of random people into their countries at the behest of some random country's official sitting in Brussels. Or to literally be forced to stop producing food and energy for their country to adhere to satisfy some ridiculous climate change metric. Who needs food and electricity to live these days?

Eurozone is 3 rd largest financial empire in world and will be kept as this....for a reason.

With idiots attempting to limit food production they most likely will do normal job.
While if about electricity : EU doesn't wants to be dependent on supplies from idiots ....therefore renewables bubble etc.
While they are stupid by limiting local coal mining etc idiotism, this too relatively soon might get corrected. Especially cos idiots in Gaza, housithes and nice Russia hugging with Belarus, Iran and North Korea...

If Iran didn't had helped cretines in North Korea and Russia .....then most likely EU already had eased sanctions on Iran...despite U.S opinions...
Now ofc they will be more and more sharp vs Iran.

 

[D4C]

They want the benefits of free-trade and movement within Europe. They do not want to be dictated upon to take on millions of random people into their countries at the behest of some random country's official sitting in Brussels.

This is true. European countries are fundamentally different from the USA, some of our nations are NOT built upon immigration. The mass immigration from the Middle East and Africa was a horrendous failure and actually a net loss for a lot of European countries... years ago some Finnish politicians were talking about how immigrants will save the job market but in actuality there are many groups that are leading the unemployment statistics by a wide margin. The harsh truth seems to be that some immigrants were after the welfare checks after all. Currently, our politicians are interested in the SEA region's workforce as they seem to actually work if they migrate.

 

[SandisLL]

Yeah, becomming EU member takes a lot of time. That a lot of EU countries has signed long term ukraine support "contracts" makes me happy.

All these fucking morons that do not understand what will happen if Russia wins make me angry, luckily they are still outnumbered.

Slava Ukraina

There are nice countries called Hungary and Slovakia. They now does have governments with opinion against to help Ukr..

They doesn't think about reality that they might get land border with Russia and might be filled with refugees till nightmare level .... if Russia will win .... also ofc most likely they soon will get nice package with refugees and immigrants from Moldova...
I can imagine how happy they might be in such case.

 

[Oddmonster]

There are nice countries called Hungary and Slovakia. They now does have governments with opinion against to help Ukr..

They doesn't think about reality that they might get land border with Russia and might be filled with refugees till nightmare level .... if Russia will win .... also ofc most likely they soon will get nice package with refugees and immigrants from Moldova...
I can imagine how happy they might be in such case.

yeah, as all conservative countries, they are shortsighted. They have "piss in pants to keep warm" politics. It feels good now, but will suck in the future.

Like the U.K, where educated people told all the people EXACTLY what would happen if they went through with Brexit, and all the conservatives thought it was bullshit - and look how fucked they are now. And who are the conservatives and right-wingers blaming? Everyone but themselves. It would be hillarious if it wasn't so sad.

 

[SandisLL]

yeah, as all conservative countries, they are shortsighted. They have "piss in pants to keep warm" politics. It feels good now, but will suck in the future.

Like the U.K, where educated people told all the people EXACTLY what would happen if they went through with Brexit, and all the conservatives thought it was bullshit - and look how fucked they are now. And who are the conservatives and right-wingers blaming? Everyone but themselves. It would be hillarious if it wasn't so sad.

Exception was Poland with " bad " conservative PiS ruling. They immediately get what might happen ....IF...

 

[Fox by the Sea]

Hopefully, the EU will be super right wing in about 10-15 years.
i've voted left wing all my life but i will never vote socialist parties ever again until i see some form of commitment to the preservation of the culture. We don't need immigration, we've been getting only trash. this has to stop.

 

[KnightTemplar]

Bla bla bla

The U.K got their brexit, and have conservative government, and they are still whining while their country turns to shit around them.
You guys lack of understanding of how things works is both entertaining and sad. But hey, as long as you can shit in your own hands and blame the evil immigrants for it, all is good.

Because we're still taking in garbage people from garbage countries. On the plus side, it enables the rise of the Far Right.

Every cloud...

 

[Deorum]

Hopefully, the EU will be super right wing in about 10-15 years.
i've voted left wing all my life but i will never vote socialist parties ever again until i see some form of commitment to the preservation of the culture. We don't need immigration, we've been getting only trash. this has to stop.

The Fox Has Gone Fash.

 

[Fox by the Sea]

The Fox Has Gone Fash.

When the feast is over, welcome to another one.

 

[A Very Serious Cat]

Hopefully, the EU will be super right wing in about 10-15 years.
i've voted left wing all my life but i will never vote socialist parties ever again until i see some form of commitment to the preservation of the culture. We don't need immigration, we've been getting only trash. this has to stop.

Can't say I have any faith in supposed "right wing" politicians. Remember the media stoking fear that Italys new leader being literally mussolini only to do nothing about the flow of migrants

 

[Fox by the Sea]

Can't say I have any faith in supposed "right wing" politicians. Remember the media stoking fear that Italys new leader being literally mussolini only to do nothing about the flow of migrants

well yeah, the media did. euro media calls you right wing if you're one inch to the right of Lenin.

 

[Cole train]

Can't say I have any faith in supposed "right wing" politicians. Remember the media stoking fear that Italys new leader being literally mussolini only to do nothing about the flow of migrants

Fun fact mussolinis grandaughters are both in politics

One was in EU parlament

Alessandra Mussolini - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

One in Romes politics

Rachele Mussolini (politician) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[A Very Serious Cat]

well yeah, the media did. euro media calls you right wing if you're one inch to the right of Lenin.

It's just such a shame no one has the will/courage to do anything about it. I've done a lot of traveling around Europe the past few months, the locations and locals have been great buy wherever you go there is always the same groups of migrants trying to scam/pickpocket or even rob you of you end up in the wrong place. A real stain on otherwise great places