Ethnicity and Muslims in Europe - The numbers

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

350+ deaths from Islamic terrorism
rotherham and friends

still claims nothing to complain about.

I didn't say there was nothing to complain about.
I just don't see that hitting the panic button, here, over and over, cowering and fearful, is a good look or a useful endeavor.

 

[uppercutbus]

I didn't say there was nothing to complain about.
I just don't see that hitting the panic button, here, over and over, cowering and fearful, is a good look or a useful endeavor.

Looks like you're treating complaints and panicking as one and the same. Thanks for your concern though, how thoughtful of you.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

Looks like you're treating complaints and panicking as one and the same. Thanks for your concern though, how thoughtful of you.

Like I said, when it happens over and over, it's just preaching to a choir. Is it intended to win over people to the cause?
What's the end game? Because from where I'm sitting it just looks triggered and in search of a safe space, melting snowflake whirlwind.
It's been run into the fucking ground.

 

[Sano]

Like I said, when it happens over and over, it's just preaching to a choir. Is it intended to win over people to the cause?
What's the end game? Because from where I'm sitting it just looks triggered and in search of a safe space, melting snowflake whirlwind.
It's been run into the fucking ground.

I know what you're getting at, and why you're saying this, but I think the numbers speak for themselves.

 

[Lord_Impaler]

I didn't say there was nothing to complain about.
I just don't see that hitting the panic button, here, over and over, cowering and fearful, is a good look or a useful endeavor.

You’re purposefully conflating simply addressing a problem with being “cowering and fearful” for ideological purposes. That’s a hack move.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

I know what you're getting at, and why you're saying this, but I think the numbers speak for themselves.

There's a football game this Sunday.
There's a football game this Sunday.
There's a football game this Sunday.
Here's a list of NFL teams by city.

...

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

You’re purposefully conflating simply addressing a problem with being “cowering and fearful” for ideological purposes. That’s a hack move.

The repetition tells me it's fear based. Not so much "be aware of facts" as "time to panic".

 

[Sano]

You’re purposefully conflating simply addressing a problem with being “cowering and fearful” for ideological purposes. That’s a hack move.

Saying there's a problem we have to discuss is very different from claiming a white genocide, or that muslims will overtake Europe in a few years.

 

[Sano]

Well this is great news. This gives Europe enough time to halt African and Islamic immigration and start incentive programs for Europeans to have more children.

The damage done by even a small amount of Africans and Muslims is shocking. Imagine how much worse it would be if the numbers were double than what they are now.

It's really important to have these kinds of discussions.

While muslims and Africans are certainly overrepresented in the crime statistics, the numbers often cited are not factual. There are definitely problems and it's not an excuse.

Off the top of your head, how often do you think someone with muslim or African background commit crimes compared to ethnic Europeans?

In regards to the halting of immigration, it's happening already. Which is good in many ways.

 

[Lord_Impaler]

Saying there's a problem we have to discuss is very different from claiming a white genocide, or that muslims will overtake Europe in a few years.

Ya being worried about rape gangs like Rotterham or mass sex assaults like Cologne is a real bitch move, pussies.

 

[Factory]

Look at the big cities. This is where the music plays. Look at London, Paris, Berlin etc.
The demographics will change. It's just a question of time. Europe will become more islamic, because the Islam is the most dominant culture in the world and because the European voters want more "diversity". They want globalization. At least in my country, which is Germany. Otherwise they wouldn't vote Merkel.

A Muslim knows who he is. Western people in contrary don't even know their gender.

 

[Ripskater]

Oh I know very well there are religious fanatics you just can't reach Rip.... very well....

If you had to pick one to let into your country, would you pick me or an Islamic known terrorist?

 

[Ripskater]

Look at the big cities. This is where the music plays. Look at London, Paris, Berlin etc.
The demographics will change drastically. It's just a question of time. Europe will become more islamic, because the Islam is the most dominant culture in the world and because the European voters want more "diversity". They want globalization. At least in my country, which is Germany. Otherwise they wouldn't vote Merkel.

A Muslim knows who he is. Western people in contrary doesn't even know their gender.

Islam is a religion, but it is also political. People don't realize that.

 

[Factory]

TS, you should also add some fast growing cities like:
(% Muslims)

Leicester

UK 18.6%[13]
Manchester

UK 15.8%[13]
Birmingham

UK 14.3%,[7] 15%,[4][5][12] 21.8%[13]
Bradford

UK 15%,[12] 24.7%[13]
Cologne

Germany 12%[15][16][17]
Frankfurt

Germany 12.6%[21]
Malmö

Sweden 20%[4][12]
Marseille

France 25%,[4][5][23][24]
Medgidia

Romania 16.7% [25]
Paris

France 15%[5][12] (10-15% in metro area)[7][23]
Roubaix

France 20%[28]
Shumen

Bulgaria 14.5% [30] (around 33.8%-35.5% in Shumen Province).
The Hague

Netherlands 14.1%[8]

 

[Factory]

Islam is a religion, but it is also political. People don't realize that.

I think they know rip, but liberalism is an illness. They hate their own country and culture.

 

[uppercutbus]

While muslims and Africans are certainly overrepresented in the crime statistics, the numbers often cited again are not factual. They are overstated.

Muslims are over represented in prison in France and UK
Immigrants are over represented in rape in Sweden/Germany.
"It's not as bad as they say". - whatever, like I'm supposed to be impressed they're a little less rapey than the stats suggest. #LetThemIn

 

[Falconkick]

With all the muslim threads going on constantly and frankly bizarre numbers being thrown around, I thought I would finally take the time to look into the statistics. This thread is not about whether the muslim ideology is good or bad. Personally, I dislike fundamentalism in all shapes and forms and it's no secret the muslim faith has substantial amount of that. However, the figures often mentioned does not always comport with reality. This is purely to put some of the misinformation to rest.

THE CURRENT STATE OF MUSLIMS IN EUROPE

Demographics of Northern and Central European Countries

Ireland
Ethnicity: 82,2% White Irish, 9,5% white other
Religion: 92.0% christian, 6.2% unaffiliated, 1.4% muslim
(1, 2)

United Kingdom
Ethnicity: 87% White British
Religion: 59% christian, 25% unaffiliated and 4-6% muslim
(1, 3).

Sweden
Ethnicity: 81% Swedish
Religion: 67% christian, 27% unaffiliated, 4,6-8% muslim

About 80% are ethnically Swedish in Sweden, and immigration is on a sharp decline, with Syrian refugees being down 34% from last year. Add to that 2% of the population are foreign born from Africa and 4,2% from the middle east which here include: Iran, Irak, Afghanistan and Syria (1, 4, 5, 6).

Denmark
Ethnicity: 87% Danish
Religion: 84,5% christian, 11,8% unaffiliated, 4-5,3% muslim

Non-western ethnicity including second generation accounts for about 7% of the population.
(7, 8).

Norway
Ethnicity: 84% Norweigan
Religion: 84,7% christian, 10,1% unaffiliated, 4% muslim
(9, 10).

Germany
Ethnicity: 80% German, 90% European
Religon: 68.7% christian, 24.7% unaffiliated, 5.8-6,1% muslim
(1, 11)

France
Ethnicity: 89% French
Religion: 63.0% christian, 28% unaffiliated, 7.5% muslim
(1,12)

Belgium
Ethnicity: 75-85% Belgian
Religion: 64.2% christian, 29% unaffiliated, 5.9% muslim.
(1, 13, 14)

European Union Total
Ethnicity: 92,5% European
Religion: 74,5% Christian, 18.8% Unaffiliated and 4,9% Muslim

On average 74~% are christian, 18.8% unaffiliated and 5.9% muslim. This includes countries like Albania and Kosovo which are almost exclusively muslim (80-90%). They are however not migrants or refugees. The European Union (EU), which is a better representation, has a population of 4,9% muslims. EU citizens are 92,5% ethnically European (1, 9-2).

The percentage of muslims in Europe is vastly overstimated. In fact, surveys show that Europeans themselves overestimate the muslim population several times over (15).

A side note here to consider is the difference between being culturally religious and practicing your religion. In a Danish study by "Islamic Thought" at the University Of Copenhagen, they estimated that about 40-50% of muslims living in Denmark was cultural muslims, meaning not practicing (16). Part of this can be explained by children of muslim parents being calculated as muslims in the statistics, when they might not always identify as muslims. Denmark is a very secular country, so that's another thing to consider. World Vision Research Group of Germany estimated that about 20% of German muslims where living as secular muslims (17). In Belgium, a 2005 survey found that only 10% of muslims were practicing (18), although what that means exactly in this context is not stated. Another Belgian 2010 survey found that the majority of muslims wanted religious freedom and the freedom to decide to leave islam if a person wanted to (19).


THE FUTURE OF MUSLIMS IN EUROPE:

Pew Research did a 2015 analysis at the height of the Syrian refugee crisis, the largest refugee crisis of our time (20), attempting to make projections about the muslim population in Europe from 2016-2050 (21). It included three different scenarios: 1) No migration, 2) Medium migration and 3) Highest migration:

Zero migration would assume no migration or refugees, which is not realistic, so let's put that aside. High migration would assume the same number of refugee influx as in 2014-2016, at the height of Syria crisis as mentioned, each year for the next 35 years straight which also is not realistic (and we already know now not the case). We will remove that as well. That leaves us the medium immigration scenario.

In this scenario, from 2016-2050, Europe would go from a population of muslim at 4,9% to 11,2%. So roughly ten percent of the population in Europe would be muslim in 2050. However, there are two important issues to be raised with the projection, and why it might be overstated.

1. Fertility rates.
The article states that: "Europe are assumed to have fertility rates that match those of Muslims in their destination countries"

If you look at fertility rates of major muslims countries, they have been dropping sharply in the last few decades. Going back 35 years (same as the projection ahead), from 1980 to 2015, the following countries fell as shown in the graph below:

Afghanistan: 7,45 to 4,80
Irak: 6,57 to 4,43
Pakistan: 6,53 to 3,35
Syria: 7,09 to 2,97
Indonesia: 4,43 to 2,39
India: 4,84 to 2,35
Libya: 7,22 to 2,30
Turkey: 4,40 to 2,09
Iran: 6,48 to 1,69

Average: 6,10 to 2,93
(22).

With this drop, it is dubious to assume that the fertility rate would not drop further and would stay the same untill year 2050. So the basis for initial comparison is shaky at best.

In regards to European muslims, they use the following projections:

Which again assumes that fertility rates stays the same. This seems unfeasable as immigrant fertility rate has been dropping in most European countries during the last decade (23). Further, numbers from Austria and Germany shows that the fertility rate of muslim women is falling in both countries and is now simular to the ethnic population in some demographics (24).

2. Immigrant influx
The projected immigrant data used from 2014-2015, even if taking the medium immigrant influx scenario, is hardly reliable considering the steep drop Europe has seen in asylum seekers and refugees since the height of the crisis in 2015. In this year, Germany took the biggest number of asylum seekers out of any country in Europe. This was a staggering 890.000 people. Last year, that numbers was down to 186.644:

As the German Interior Minister, de Maizière, said in January: ""The crisis of the extremely high figure of 2015 and 2016 has been overcome" (25).

Sweden went from 156.110 in 2015, to 22.190 in 2017. Denmark went from 20.825 in 2015, to 3.125 in 2017. Norway went from 30.470 in 2015, to 3.350 in 2017 (26). Bear in mind, these are people seeking asylum, not necessarily being granted it.

In fact, Europe as a whole has seen a substantial drop in asylum seekers and refugees, about 50% since 2015, and this number is likely to keep decreasing (27):

This could not have been predicted in 2015, therefor it is fair to assume that Pew Research might have overstated the projected immigrant data and influx.

In summary:
Euope is over 90% ethnic Europeans. Europe is about 4,9% muslim. Europe has been projected by some estimates to become 11,2% muslim in 2050, however this data is likely overstated and going with current trends the number will probably be lower. Ultimately, no one can predict all these variables, but declining fertility rates amongst muslims nearing the ethnic populations, a sharp decline in asylum seekers and tighter immigration policy will probably keep the number in the low-end estimations.

Spoiler: Reference list

1: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projection-table/2010/percent/all/
2: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp8iter/p8iter/p8e/
3: http://www.irr.org.uk/research/statistics/ethnicity-and-religion/
4: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/ethnicity-in-the-uk
5: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...knyhet/befolkningsstatistik-1a-halvaret-2018/
6: https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/...kningens-sammansattning/befolkningsstatistik/
7: https://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/Publikationer/VisPub?cid=20705
8: https://www.religion.dk/religionsanalysen/hvor-mange-indvandrer-lever-i-danmark
9: https://www.rights.no/2017/03/nye-ssb-tall-om-norges-befolkning/
9-2: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...p/Migration_and_migrant_population_statistics
10: https://www.rights.no/2017/11/ssb-med-anslag-pa-antallet-muslimer-i-norge/
11: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikat...grund2010220177004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
12: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/series/103088458
13: https://www.indexmundi.com/belgium/demographics_profile.html
14: https://www.britannica.com/place/Belgium/Ethnic-groups-and-languages
15: https://www.thelocal.se/20161214/swedes-wildly-overestimate-muslim-population-survey
16: https://www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/statistik#2-religion-i-danmark
17: https://fowid.de/meldung/religionszugehoerigkeiten-deutschland-2017
18: https://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/irf/2006/71371.htm
19: https://books.google.dk/books?id=NW7DBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA233&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
20: https://www.worldvision.org/refugees-news-stories/syrian-refugee-crisis-facts
21: http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
22: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate
23: https://www.researchgate.net/public...y_datasheet_2015_httpwwwfertilitydatasheetorg
24: https://fowid.de/meldung/mythos-hoher-muslimischer-geburtenraten
25: https://www.dw.com/en/refugee-numbers-in-germany-dropped-dramatically-in-2017/a-42162223
26: https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/63732
27: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...ics#Number_of_asylum_applicants:_drop_in_2017

Considering how little it takes to make a big riff since apparently Western Europe lost its balls. Those numbers are actually very scary. Numbers like that from Islamic countries, wayyyyyy too much. .Should be a no brainer

 

[Factory]

I agree. There has definitely been a problem with too lenient immigration politics. Mostly in Sweden as far as Scandinavian countries go. This has changed to the other side in the last few years. The problem arises when people cannot look at the real facts and numbers, because if we can't do that, we can never solve these issues.

I am a staunch supporter of human rights and believe we should share the load when it comes to refugees. However, we should also reform our integration initiatives in a humane, but pragmatic way. Don't centralize all immigrants and make ghettos with lower socioeconomic status, spread people out, have more social initiatives which are preventative (all data shows that preventive initatives work much better than trying to reform), tighten immigration and border laws (we've already done that) and soften the rhetoric to be more inclusive. We need to work together.

I honestly don't know what you are talking about.

It almost sounds like integration is the duty of the target country. Since when? In my opinion the obligation regarding integration relies 99% on the Immigrants. If you come to a foreign country, you have to adapt to the country and not the country to you. Muslims are already the most supported group in Europe, by far. Unfortunately they are still the worst integrated group.

And no, we don't need to work together. I am tired of it.

I have a simple question for you? Do you want to see a more islamic Europe?

 

[NoDak]

Look at the big cities. This is where the music plays. Look at London, Paris, Berlin etc.
The demographics will change. It's just a question of time. Europe will become more islamic, because the Islam is the most dominant culture in the world and because the European voters want more "diversity". They want globalization. At least in my country, which is Germany. Otherwise they wouldn't vote Merkel.

A Muslim knows who he is. Western people in contrary don't even know their gender.

The dumb thing is that she is not a "leftist" politician at all in a traditional sense and the CDU is supposed to be the centre-right party of Germany. Maybe that's still true in an economic sense and income inequality has increased alongside the growth over the last decade, but socially? Not anymore, and they have only themselves to blame for the rise of a party like the AfD becoming the third largest in the country. It didn't even exist five years ago.

Do you want to see a more islamic Europe?

No.

 

[Gervais]

The problem isnt the numbers. But how european governments place these people. They like to put them in same areas which give impression they are more than they actually are