DWCS, Tuesday, Dana White Contender Series betting thread, MMA

[svmr_db]

Luciano still looks like she is potential fade material once she gets into the UFC.

 

[PuertoRican]

Luciano still looks like she is potential fade material once she gets into the UFC.

Yep. I can't wait.

 

[rev0lver]

What are the leans this week? I've been unable to do much tape the past few events so seeing what I can get out of wikicapping.

Raheam Forest seems like he should be fine, but it kind of sticks out that only 3 years ago he was a 4-6 amateur. Danny Barlow record is a little sus though... is a clearly improved fighter a better sign than a can crusher? Makes me think back to someone like Chad Anheliger, whose 2-5 start only looked like it built character rather than being an issue.

Piazzon's record gives me big red flags too. Borders on can crushing and tapology lists his last win as record-ineligible. Kind of a good sign for HW too that none of Soldatkin's losses were knockouts.

Not getting a ton out of who should be better in Oliveira-Madrigal, but Madrigal's tapology pic being what seems to be a flying armbar attempt has me into that. Interesting though that Madrigal has a win over Christian Quinonez who beat Oliveira. Are those odds deserved?

 

[Broe.]

What are the leans this week? I've been unable to do much tape the past few events so seeing what I can get out of wikicapping.

Raheam Forest seems like he should be fine, but it kind of sticks out that only 3 years ago he was a 4-6 amateur. Danny Barlow record is a little sus though... is a clearly improved fighter a better sign than a can crusher? Makes me think back to someone like Chad Anheliger, whose 2-5 start only looked like it built character rather than being an issue.

Piazzon's record gives me big red flags too. Borders on can crushing and tapology lists his last win as record-ineligible. Kind of a good sign for HW too that none of Soldatkin's losses were knockouts.

Not getting a ton out of who should be better in Oliveira-Madrigal, but Madrigal's tapology pic being what seems to be a flying armbar attempt has me into that. Interesting though that Madrigal has a win over Christian Quinonez who beat Oliveira. Are those odds deserved?

Barlow has great physical gifts. He is fast and accurate with power. But yeah a lot of questionmarks about his groundgame and his cardio. I personally would not bet against him though.

I only have a bet on Silva at 1.63. He is the bigger guy with a more proven record. He has good cardio and volume and keeps good pressure on his opponents, he also seems very durable.

I think Pacheco is a little green, not a lot of experience and he got dropped last fight by a 135'er. He looks kind of ok'ish in all areas but nothing really that stands out. I think ultimately Silva will edge this fight out.

 

[rev0lver]

Barlow has great physical gifts. He is fast and accurate with power. But yeah a lot of questionmarks about his groundgame and his cardio. I personally would not bet against him though.

Yeah I'll have to look for some footage on them at least. I normally have a rule to fade can crushers but some are genuinely skilled and just taking that matchmaking as it comes. Wouldn't be the first to prove they're more than that here.

 

[B.Goetz]

Danny Silva (-200) $40.00 to win $20.00
Crispy Carli (-160) $40.00 to win $25.00
Crispy Carli by dec (+190) $40.00 to win $76.00

Carli's striking is indeed crispy. Her opponent was brought in to lose to Rakmonov's little sister, who pulled out of the fight. She's big, but not very skilled. She struggled mightily against a 40 year old French Sambo practitioner. I don't think the UFC is seriously looking at signing her. The decision line looks good to me, too. Due to the size difference I don't think Carli will be able to tee off on her like she has done to previous opponents.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I took shoot at Raheam Forest to win over Danny Barlow @+102. Not my most confident pick at all, but wanted to gamble a bit.
I think Forest has all the tools needed to win round 1 at a high clip. I also think that if the fight goes to round 3 that Barlow should be the fresher fighter and win that round, so it will come down to round 2 in my opinion.
I think that if Forest can get the fight to the ground in round 1 and not blow his gas tank I think he takes round 2 as well... if not then he probably lose.

Feels like both fighters has the power to finish the other one, although Forest is more live for an early finish while Barlow should be more live for a late finish.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Danny Silva (-200) $40.00 to win $20.00
Crispy Carli (-160) $40.00 to win $25.00
Crispy Carli by dec (+190) $40.00 to win $76.00

Carli's striking is indeed crispy. Her opponent was brought in to lose to Rakmonov's little sister, who pulled out of the fight. She's big, but not very skilled. She struggled mightily against a 40 year old French Sambo practitioner. I don't think the UFC is seriously looking at signing her. The decision line looks good to me, too. Due to the size difference I don't think Carli will be able to tee off on her like she has done to previous opponents.

Carli's striking is for sure more aesthetically pleasing, naturally, since she appears to be an amazing athlete with great hand eye coordination, naturally fast hands, and razor sharp reflexes. Ernesta to my eye though definitely looks like the better striker.

Carli dished out a lot of punishment to her opponents in her last two amateur fights but she also took nearly as much back. Laying juice on a fighter who in their last amateur fight, three fights ago, had the fight (on one scorecard) scored against them 50-45 seems unwise.

Ernesta has professional kickboxing and boxing experience in addition to her MMA bouts. All together she appears to have over ten times as much professional experience. She also has fought significantly tougher opponents.

Rakhmonov's sister is very similar to Carli, slightly less athletic, but not much better nor much worse. I don't think Ernesta was being brought in to lose because that would have been a close fight just like this one likely will be.

 

[xhaydenx]

Carli's striking is for sure more aesthetically pleasing, naturally, since she appears to be an amazing athlete with great hand eye coordination, naturally fast hands, and razor sharp reflexes. Ernesta to my eye though definitely looks like the better striker.

Carli dished out a lot of punishment to her opponents in her last two amateur fights but she also took nearly as much back. Laying juice on a fighter who in their last amateur fight, three fights ago, had the fight (on one scorecard) scored against them 50-45 seems unwise.

Ernesta has professional kickboxing and boxing experience in addition to her MMA bouts. All together she appears to have over ten times as much professional experience. She also has fought significantly tougher opponents.

Rakhmonov's sister is very similar to Carli, slightly less athletic, but not much better nor much worse. I don't think Ernesta was being brought in to lose because that would have been a close fight just like this one likely will be.

Same sorta thoughts of watching a bit more of Ernesta.

In one fight her striking looked shit and afraid to engage against a way smaller girl. Then in the next she was letting her strikes go and looking a bit more skilled of a striker than Carli.

Feels like this fight is just gonna come down to who can be the bully. I fee like that's going to be Carli, even if she isn't better technically.

 

[Don Sharpe]

DWCS 2023 Week 8 Prediction

Raheam Forest (7-1) Vs Danny Barlow (6-0)

This DWCS season has been a personal favorite, and tonight we have another stellar main event.

In the welterweight division, two top prospects are set to clash, and it's most certain to deliver exceptional entertainment.

Barlow has only lost once in MMA in his amateur career and it was a submission loss to a heel hook.

Forest's amateur record is more checkered, with 5 wins and 6 losses, with 4 of those losses ending in finishes.

Forest boasts experience against tougher competition and was a former champion in the CFFC promotion.

Both fighters are primarily strikers, but they exhibit different styles. Forest leans towards aggression, while Barlow is the more technical fighter with better defensive skills.

I believe Barlow will be able to effectively handle Forest's unorthodox style and find the perfect opportunity to secure a KO victory.

Pick: Danny Barlow ML (-109)

 

[Don Sharpe]

 

[Stat_Collector]

took
madrical- cleaner form, beat Quininez and olly didn’t
Pecheco-experience+fluidity

Alexander- too much milage mismatch.

 

[PuertoRican]

Brazil vs. Mexico in the first fight. Should be a slobberknocker.

 

[rev0lver]

I think I'm on Pacheco last minute. Quality of competition gets me not going super hard, but I like his hunger and finishing instinct. Seems solid all around. Danny Silva just looks a bit middling to me... decent volume boxer and can't say much more, and it's not like his fights are all one-way traffic. Value is on Pacheco imo.

After taping a little I think Oliveira SHOULD win, but I don't think his technical skill is at the same level as his confidence. Throws a lot of wild bombs. Shooting the dog odds for a Madrigal flying sub might not be a bad option.

 

[mkess101]

Some PP and UD plays tonight.

Judice over 77.5 fantasy score+Oliveira/Madrigal under 9.75 minutes fight time
Soldatkin/Piazzon under 3.5 minutes fight time+Kevin Gausman (MLB) over 6.5 strikeouts (discounted "taco" play from PP)
Soldatkin under 118.5 fantasy score+A'ja Wilson (WNBA) over 21.5 points (discounted "taco" play from PP)
Oliveira/Madrigal under 9.75 minutes+Amon Ra St Brown over 53.5 receiving yards (NFL--discounted "taco" play from PP)

UD:
Forest over 42.5 sig strikes+Soldatkin under 19.5 sig strikes+Oliveira under 43.5 sig strikes+Silva/Pacheco over 10.5 minutes fight time+Judice over 67.5 sig strikes
Forest over 42.5 sig strikes+Soldatkin under 19.5 sig strikes+Judice over 67.5 sig strikes

 

[JC615]

Nasty KO!

 

[PuertoRican]

It's time for Crispy to cook this other chick.

 

[B.Goetz]

Carli has been training for less than 4 years.

 

[mkess101]

First fight very nice result. Now hoping Crispy lands a ton of sig strikes, maybe hit a couple TD's...find a late finish and cash the over on fantasy score too.

 

[mkess101]

Crazy pace here.