DWCS, Tuesday, Dana White Contender Series betting thread, MMA

[rev0lver]

Jhaoata SIlva + Daniel Adams

Not a big lean, but J.Silva has wins on more season fighters who had amateur experience.

J. Silva has a hidden amateur record himself; I also don't see big major gap in skill vs Igor Da Silva

They have the same strengths and style; I'm siding with a more slightly better resume.

--
Daniel Adams is a good wrestler with college credentials and an aka trained fighter, not a major lean, but he's had dominating performances. Jacobi has one loss against a grappler. He's got the better resume on record but not like he's a world beater.

Jacobi has been controlled in the past. He can be grounded.

Igor and Jhonata are both solid, but think it's worth pointing out that Igor's only 20 years old, and has so far managed to finish every opponent against some decent & experienced competition. Pretty impressive for a young flyweight, and you have to imagine that he's only going to improve. Jhonata's also only had 1 fight in 4 years. Don't think he's an awful choice as a moderate underdog, but I think Igor's rightfully the favorite.

Daniel Allen might have a decent background, but his quality of competition is a big red flag to me. Only fought 4 cans when he should already be mid-career. I'd be hesitant to call Jones a world beater himself, but he's been the more active guy beating better competition. Also has a college wrestling background + decent grappling despite the submission loss to an armbar specialist.

 

[Thesnake101]

Igor and Jhonata are both solid, but think it's worth pointing out that Igor's only 20 years old, and has so far managed to finish every opponent against some decent & experienced competition. Pretty impressive for a young flyweight, and you have to imagine that he's only going to improve. Jhonata's also only had 1 fight in 4 years. Don't think he's an awful choice as a moderate underdog, but I think Igor's rightfully the favorite.

Daniel Allen might have a decent background, but his quality of competition is a big red flag to me. Only fought 4 cans when he should already be mid-career. I'd be hesitant to call Jones a world beater himself, but he's been the more active guy beating better competition. Also has a college wrestling background + decent grappling despite the submission loss to an armbar specialist.

Biggest red flag in regards to Allen is his age, 31 and only fought cans? His line is juicy though, so I can't fault anyone picking him. Having said that, I've seen enough credentialed wrestlers over the years wash out and not amount to anything, so the level of competition matters most to me.

Igor/Jhonata is closer, only reason I'm siding with Igor aside from his activity and finishing upside is the fact that Jhonata spent a lot of his career in the strawweight range, so he might be significantly smaller than Igor and not deal with the power as well.

A dog I'm considering is Mantello. Not the best record but he's a finisher, survived Colgan and Kruschewsky's best win is a decision over a very much washed Martins. Also has a KO loss to Mantykivi so he can get caught. at +180 Dylan is not a bad play imo.

 

[Thesnake101]

Jhaoata SIlva + Daniel Adams

Not a big lean, but J.Silva has wins on more season fighters who had amateur experience.

J. Silva has a hidden amateur record himself; I also don't see big major gap in skill vs Igor Da Silva

They have the same strengths and style; I'm siding with a more slightly better resume.

--
Daniel Adams is a good wrestler with college credentials and an aka trained fighter, not a major lean, but he's had dominating performances. Jacobi has one loss against a grappler. He's got the better resume on record but not like he's a world beater.

Jacobi has been controlled in the past. He can be grounded.

Is Daniel James Allen actually a decorated wrestler? I looked him up but couldn't find much, it was way easier to find Jacobi's All-American accolades from back in highschool and such.

Obviously credentials are not the end all be all, but for how much hype I've heard in regards to Allen, I was expecting more provable stuff rather than just talk.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Igor and Jhonata are both solid, but think it's worth pointing out that Igor's only 20 years old, and has so far managed to finish every opponent against some decent & experienced competition. Pretty impressive for a young flyweight, and you have to imagine that he's only going to improve. Jhonata's also only had 1 fight in 4 years. Don't think he's an awful choice as a moderate underdog, but I think Igor's rightfully the favorite.

Daniel Allen might have a decent background, but his quality of competition is a big red flag to me. Only fought 4 cans when he should already be mid-career. I'd be hesitant to call Jones a world beater himself, but he's been the more active guy beating better competition. Also has a college wrestling background + decent grappling despite the submission loss to an armbar specialist.

I dont agree with your second statement. The guys Igor's beaten were local Brazilian fighters within his region who also have only fought in local brazilian cards.

Jhonata's last two wins both fought internationally and have decent wins in their record. Altas was 12-3 as an amateur. And Stipe Brcic competed in cage warriors and other european circuits. Both of these guys have more experience internationally.

And as i pointed out Jhonta has a hidden amateur record that is not listed on tapology. He's more experienced that we know of.

I also see holes on tape with Igor, being put on his back taken down by local cans is a red flag as a favorite. He's beating these guys between rnds 2 and 1 in rnd 3. Yes its impressive he has a high finish rate. But some of his wins seem manufactured. Like the guys have nice records but then you dive further and you realize they are can beaters.

Biggest red flag in regards to Allen is his age, 31 and only fought cans? His line is juicy though, so I can't fault anyone picking him. Having said that, I've seen enough credentialed wrestlers over the years wash out and not amount to anything, so the level of competition matters most to me.

Igor/Jhonata is closer, only reason I'm siding with Igor aside from his activity and finishing upside is the fact that Jhonata spent a lot of his career in the strawweight range, so he might be significantly smaller than Igor and not deal with the power as well.

A dog I'm considering is Mantello. Not the best record but he's a finisher, survived Colgan and Kruschewsky's best win is a decision over a very much washed Martins. Also has a KO loss to Mantykivi so he can get caught. at +180 Dylan is not a bad play imo.

yeah he's 31 but he's bigger in size 6'1 vs 5'9

walks around 175lb Jacobi got grounded by Paxton and Christian Rod , he's been on his back a few times in his career. Despite being a wrestler his scrambles suck. At least i know Allen has trained and grappled with Dagastani grapplers for his training. I'll take the chance. Jacobi always wins with very shotty dirty performances.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Is Daniel James Allen actually a decorated wrestler? I looked him up but couldn't find much, it was way easier to find Jacobi's All-American accolades from back in highschool and such.

Obviously credentials are not the end all be all, but for how much hype I've heard in regards to Allen, I was expecting more provable stuff rather than just talk.

i didn't mean to say he's decorated, just that he has college experience. Junior college wrestling cred. Njcaa to be exact.

 

[rev0lver]

I dont agree with your second statement. The guys Igor's beaten were local Brazilian fighters within his region who also have only fought in local brazilian cards.

Yeah but it's Brazil, and for the most part they weren't cans. I'd agree for a handful of places, but local experience in places like Brazil/Russia/Australia counts just as much as long as it's decent competition. Jhonata fighting two Europeans doesn't make a world of difference in my eyes. He also got really easily taken down multiple times by that Croatian guy, just found the late knockout in a close fight.

Again, don't think Jhonata's bad or that he doesn't have a chance here. He has some good striking fundamentals. I just think Igor's the more promising prospect who's probably going to get even better.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah but it's Brazil, and for the most part they weren't cans. I'd agree for a handful of places, but local experience in places like Brazil/Russia/Australia counts just as much as long as it's decent competition. Jhonata fighting two Europeans doesn't make a world of difference in my eyes. He also got really easily taken down multiple times by that Croatian guy, just found the late knockout in a close fight.

Again, don't think Jhonata's bad or that he doesn't have a chance here. He has some good striking fundamentals. I just think Igor's the more promising prospect who's probably going to get even better.

It does because they are more seasoned. One had near 20 fights and the other raked up decent wins.

A high finish rate also means shorter cage time. Jhonata has beaten more proven fighters. There are good brazilian fighters , Igor didn't fight any of them, his opponents have looked stiff on tape.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Lol at people equating higher finish rate to being a better fighter roflmao some people just have no idea. The 9 fights last event not including the no contest or the draw only 2 fighters out of the 9 fights had a higher finish percentage then there opponents so if anything the fighter who has more wins by dec i would say is the better overall fighter

 

[rev0lver]

Lol at people equating higher finish rate to being a better fighter roflmao some people just have no idea. The 9 fights last event not including the no contest or the draw only 2 fighters out of the 9 fights had a higher finish percentage then there opponents so if anything the fighter who has more wins by dec i would say is the better overall fighter

It's a factor, not a sole determination. For example - last week's DWCS in Matsumoto vs Tanner, Tanner had the better finish rate, but had mostly fought cans while Matsumoto had beaten legit opponents, decision or otherwise. Matsumoto predictably won. Same with Llontop vs Lewis, where I posted I was on Llontop. Lewis had a 100% finish rate, vs a handful of Llontop decisions. Still thought Llontop would win, and he did.

In this fight, I feel both have fought a similar quality of competition. But with that in mind, I think it's important to see how well those wins were won. I think Igor has blown through people while Jhonata has either toughed out or coasted some wins that I feel should've come easier for someone seeking a UFC level. They're also fighting at Flyweight, where finishes come less easily due to a tendency for lower power & higher cardio, and it makes that finish rate more impressive. With those factors combined, I give the edge to Igor here.

 

[guesswhoseback]

It's a factor, not a sole determination. For example - last week's DWCS in Matsumoto vs Tanner, Tanner had the better finish rate, but had mostly fought cans while Matsumoto had beaten legit opponents, decision or otherwise. Matsumoto predictably won. Same with Llontop vs Lewis, where I posted I was on Llontop. Lewis had a 100% finish rate, vs a handful of Llontop decisions. Still thought Llontop would win, and he did.

In this fight, I feel both have fought a similar quality of competition. But with that in mind, I think it's important to see how well those wins were won. I think Igor has blown through people while Jhonata has either toughed out or coasted some wins that I feel should've come easier for someone seeking a UFC level. They're also fighting at Flyweight, where finishes come less easily due to a tendency for lower power & higher cardio, and it makes that finish rate more impressive. With those factors combined, I give the edge to Igor here.

Hmm i beg to differ i dont think a finishing rate has any indictation on which fighter is better in my opinion prob even the complete oppoosite but everyone is entitled to there own opinion i only did last weeks event but when i hvae time i will do a couple of other recent events to see if the fighter who has a higher finishing rate wins more often then not. last week 7-2 in favor of the fighter with a lower finishing rate percentage

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Hmm i beg to differ i dont think a finishing rate has any indictation on which fighter is better in my opinion prob even the complete oppoosite but everyone is entitled to there own opinion i only did last weeks event but when i hvae time i will do a couple of other recent events to see if the fighter who has a higher finishing rate wins more often then not. last week 7-2 in favor of the fighter with a lower finishing rate percentage

Depends who the finishes are against. I would value cage time against a high level opponent but not so much with someone struggling to put away a can.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I took 1.5U on Talita Alencar to beat Stephanie Luciano @-220
I also took a 0.5U shot on U2.5 @+132

Neither fighter has any real MMA experience, however Alencar has a wealth of experience as a 5 time world JJ champion. I think this matter quite a lot here, especially when her opponent not only is quite green in MMA, but also very young (23).

Looking at the few fights they have which are available online.
Alencar is tough, she took some bombs on the feet from Kelsey Arnesen in her last fight and Kelsey Arnesen is fking huge and jacked. Alencar is super dangerous on the ground and has finished 3/4 fights outside of the decision win against Arnesen, but that fight was closed to being finished a couple of times.
The takedowns of Alencar is mostly trips and not clean wrestling takedowns.

Stephanie Luciano is a striker, but i wasn't overly impressed by her striking. The fights that I watched, she was fighting real cans with no technique on the feet. She doesn't really have much power on the feet, despite having 2 KOs on her record. Her most recent KO against Aline Oliveira holds little to no value imo. Oliveira was awful and Luciano basically kept front kicking her until Oliveira gassed and got knocked out. If she throws that lazy front kick vs Alencar she is getting taken down.

If Luciano can keep it standing for 15 min she should win, although I'm not even sure about that. Alencar's striking is pretty bad, but she does throw with power. If Alencar gets this fight to the ground I think she finishes the fight shortly after, she is very active in top control and does both throw hard hands and goes for the sub.

Even though the odds are pretty bad and this is low level WMMA, there is actually one fighter that is really good in one area I think this should be enough. What convinced me to bet the fight was that Alencar took some real power shots from Arnesen and didn't seem faced.

 

[Thesnake101]

Have two parlays for tonight:

Igor ML/Alencar ML/Jacobi ML/Gaziev ML - $20 to win $43 profit
U2.5 Kruschewsky/U2.5 Alencar/U2.5 Jacobi - $5 to win $40 profit

 

[NewLockGuy]

Nice close quarters use of elbows to set up the finish. Always pulling guard and jumping guillotine is a bit worrying but it's worked for him so far.

 

[NewLockGuy]

Watching tape for this card has been... funny.

 

[rev0lver]

Watching tape for this card has been... funny.

Lol damn that was round 2? To be fair looks like me 5 minutes into my first time rolling at BJJ class

 

[NewLockGuy]

Lol damn that was round 2? To be fair looks like me 5 minutes into my first time rolling at BJJ class

I guess that guy is known for throwing up after a few rounds at his gym... or so I heard.

 

[mkess101]

I took 1.5U on Talita Alencar to beat Stephanie Luciano @-220
I also took a 0.5U shot on U2.5 @+132

Neither fighter has any real MMA experience, however Alencar has a wealth of experience as a 5 time world JJ champion. I think this matter quite a lot here, especially when her opponent not only is quite green in MMA, but also very young (23).

Looking at the few fights they have which are available online.
Alencar is tough, she took some bombs on the feet from Kelsey Arnesen in her last fight and Kelsey Arnesen is fking huge and jacked. Alencar is super dangerous on the ground and has finished 3/4 fights outside of the decision win against Arnesen, but that fight was closed to being finished a couple of times.
The takedowns of Alencar is mostly trips and not clean wrestling takedowns.

Stephanie Luciano is a striker, but i wasn't overly impressed by her striking. The fights that I watched, she was fighting real cans with no technique on the feet. She doesn't really have much power on the feet, despite having 2 KOs on her record. Her most recent KO against Aline Oliveira holds little to no value imo. Oliveira was awful and Luciano basically kept front kicking her until Oliveira gassed and got knocked out. If she throws that lazy front kick vs Alencar she is getting taken down.

If Luciano can keep it standing for 15 min she should win, although I'm not even sure about that. Alencar's striking is pretty bad, but she does throw with power. If Alencar gets this fight to the ground I think she finishes the fight shortly after, she is very active in top control and does both throw hard hands and goes for the sub.

Even though the odds are pretty bad and this is low level WMMA, there is actually one fighter that is really good in one area I think this should be enough. What convinced me to bet the fight was that Alencar took some real power shots from Arnesen and didn't seem faced.

I'm all over Alencar props on PP. Over 87.5 fantasy score mostly, but also over 2 takedowns and over 30.5 sig strikes. Her bjj is LEGIT. I figure if she gets it to the mat early, good chance she finishes and the fantasy score cashes easy. Maybe, maybe Luciano can get up once or twice or survive a round giving a chance for the TD prop to cash. If somehow she can't get Luciano down or decides to stand, the sig strikes prop should cash.

Mostly it's the fantasy score prop I need. A finish or a dominant, drawn out win with plenty of TD's, strikes, and sub attempts.

 

[Hughesjm1230]

10-9 Silva?

 

[Hughesjm1230]

Size difference was too much there