Dustin Poirier vs Tony Ferguson

[SeattleFightFan]

It should have been.

 

[FreddieRoachsVoice]

Dustin has a nice start to his LW career at 4-0 with 1 NC (he was on his way to losing the first Eddie fight but I don't think it matters since he finished Eddie in the rematch). I'm not here to shit on Dustin, he's improved a lot and is a really good young fighter.

Tony has won 11 in a row with 8 finishes at LW.

Reality: MJ is the last loss for each guy. But Dustin has had 5 fights since then, and Tony has had 11. MJ fought Tony FOUR AND A HALF YEARS before MJ fought Dustin. Tony lost a decision after a freak arm break from a blocked kick. Dustin got KO'd.

Dustin vs Max is a great fight, but no way in hell should there be any title on the line, fake interim belt or not. Tony is MILES ahead of either of them in the pecking order of the division (or should be) and should be fighting Khabib in the fall for the actual belt. But the UFC has decided results don't matter and the belts are all meaningless. So here we are.

This is a giant slice of MMAMath here. I would actually disagree that Tony is MILES ahead of either Dustin or Max.

While the number of Tony's wins in a row is impressive, 5 of those guys are sub-standard fighters (Vannata, Abel, Castillo, Kikuno, and Rio). Out of the remaining 6, Thompson is retired, Gleison is basically retired, Kevin Lee is completely unproven, Barboza is a gatekeeper to the stars, Pettis is 3-6 in his last 9, and even his best win, RDA, is now 3-4 in his last 7.

Tony has had a great tear and I'm not discrediting his wins AT THE TIME THEY HAPPENED but I think it is very fair to say that because of Tony's inactivity, his win streak is starting to lose A BIT of its relevancy IMHO. Poirier may have a more recent loss but his best wins have been against equal to or greater competition than Ferguson's best and they have come much more recently.

With that being said, I don't believe that Tony is "miles ahead" of him and now that Tony has turned down a huge fight, he is at huge risk of getting even further away from a title shot IMO.

 

[mkess101]

Good post. Dustin said on Helwanis show that the winner is not guaranteed a shot at Khabib, so maybe the UFC have no intention of the winner fighting Khabib and only want to use this to sell a one off PPV.

It would be utterly baffling if they bypass the winner of the interim title fight and do Khabib/Tony in the fall. Most hardcore fans would be over the moon but it would make the interim belt even more of a joke than it already is. I could see them doing it for Conor though if he were to beat Cowboy handily. Pure money grab to strike one last monster ppv with Conor coming off an impressive win. In fact, (tinfoil hat time!), would you put it past the UFC to slide some $ to the winner of Max/Dustin to "have an injury" in the fall if Conor is coming off a big KO win? "Hey Dustin, nice interim belt. Do you think you could...trip over this 6 figure check and umm...pull your hamstring and be unavailable to unify that with the actual belt? Looks like Conor could step in..."

 

[Francis_Ngannou]

It would be utterly baffling if they bypass the winner of the interim title fight and do Khabib/Tony in the fall. Most hardcore fans would be over the moon but it would make the interim belt even more of a joke than it already is. I could see them doing it for Conor though if he were to beat Cowboy handily. Pure money grab to strike one last monster ppv with Conor coming off an impressive win. In fact, (tinfoil hat time!), would you put it past the UFC to slide some $ to the winner of Max/Dustin to "have an injury" in the fall if Conor is coming off a big KO win? "Hey Dustin, nice interim belt. Do you think you could...trip over this 6 figure check and umm...pull your hamstring and be unavailable to unify that with the actual belt? Looks like Conor could step in..."

Yeah we know these weasels have some Conor angle to this plan.

 

[Thenewguysnm1]

It would be utterly baffling if they bypass the winner of the interim title fight and do Khabib/Tony in the fall. Most hardcore fans would be over the moon but it would make the interim belt even more of a joke than it already is. I could see them doing it for Conor though if he were to beat Cowboy handily. Pure money grab to strike one last monster ppv with Conor coming off an impressive win. In fact, (tinfoil hat time!), would you put it past the UFC to slide some $ to the winner of Max/Dustin to "have an injury" in the fall if Conor is coming off a big KO win? "Hey Dustin, nice interim belt. Do you think you could...trip over this 6 figure check and umm...pull your hamstring and be unavailable to unify that with the actual belt? Looks like Conor could step in..."

I don’t think the ufc would do something that crazy, they know it takes one guy to open his mouth to fold the company, it’s too risky
I think they either make the winner fight McGregor if he beats Cowboy(the winner of that faces khabib) or just strip them outright and do McGregor khabib 2
The UFC don’t mind losing credibility if it means a big money fight can happen

 

[Francis_Ngannou]

I don’t think the ufc would do something that crazy, they know it takes one guy to open his mouth to fold the company, it’s too risky
I think they either make the winner fight McGregor if he beats Cowboy(the winner of that faces khabib) or just strip them outright and do McGregor khabib 2
The UFC don’t mind losing credibility if it means a big money fight can happen

lolll the UFC don't care about credibility

This is the ConorFightingChampionship son

 

[GiSP]

It would have been a great scrap probably. I just hope Tony hasn’t hooped himself here. But I have a feeling he’s going to get screwed now. And it’ll be hard to blame anyone but him. He lost his interim belt the second he tripped on that cord. And I don’t trust Dana to make Khabib vs Tony in Nov.

 

[mkess101]

This is a giant slice of MMAMath here. I would actually disagree that Tony is MILES ahead of either Dustin or Max.

While the number of Tony's wins in a row is impressive, 5 of those guys are sub-standard fighters (Vannata, Abel, Castillo, Kikuno, and Rio). Out of the remaining 6, Thompson is retired, Gleison is basically retired, Kevin Lee is completely unproven, Barboza is a gatekeeper to the stars, Pettis is 3-6 in his last 9, and even his best win, RDA, is now 3-4 in his last 7.

Tony has had a great tear and I'm not discrediting his wins AT THE TIME THEY HAPPENED but I think it is very fair to say that because of Tony's inactivity, his win streak is starting to lose A BIT of it's relevancy IMHO. Poirier may have a more recent loss but his best wins have been against equal to or greater competition than Ferguson's best and they have come much more recently.

With that being said, I don't believe that Tony is "miles ahead" of him and now that Tony has turned down a huge fight, he is at huge risk of getting even further away from a title shot IMO.

Your points are valid. He's still MILES ahead. Maybe just not as many miles as me and some others might think.

Like you said, you can't look at where guys are now, you have to look at who they were when he fought them.

And...if we want to play that game...Dustin has 4 total wins at LW and would likely have a loss if not for the weird ending of his first fight with Alvarez.

Jim Miller is 1-4 since facing Poirier.
Anthony Pettis (as you said) is 3-6 in his last 9.
Gaehtje is a nice win, but his win over Vick now looks less impressive as Vick just lost again to Felder. Gaethje also was finished by his (Dustin's) next opponent...
Eddie Alvarez, who the UFC didn't even think was worth paying enough to keep, who went 4-3 with 1 NC in the UFC, and 2 of those 4 wins were over Pettis (we talked about him) by decision and Melendez by dec. Melendez, who lost his next 2 fights and maybe retired?

So we can kind of do what you did to Tony's record...but worse with Dustin. Hell we can probably do it to anyone.

 

[Espresso]

Ferguson always looks like he's a mm away from being starched but somehow he always pulls some crazy moves. He's durable as fuck.

Ferguson vs Poirier would definitely be an entertaining just bleed fight

I might have to see that fight for the 6th time because of that GIF

Thanks

 

[Maaj19]

If Tony gets hurt vs Dustin I think Dustin will be patient and put him away :/

 

[FreddieRoachsVoice]

Your points are valid. He's still MILES ahead. Maybe just not as many miles as me and some others might think.

Like you said, you can't look at where guys are now, you have to look at who they were when he fought them.

And...if we want to play that game...Dustin has 4 total wins at LW and would likely have a loss if not for the weird ending of his first fight with Alvarez.

Jim Miller is 1-4 since facing Poirier.
Anthony Pettis (as you said) is 3-6 in his last 9.
Gaehtje is a nice win, but his win over Vick now looks less impressive as Vick just lost again to Felder. Gaethje also was finished by his next opponent...
Eddie Alvarez, who the UFC didn't even think was worth paying enough to keep, who went 4-3 with 1 NC in the UFC, and 2 of those 4 wins were over Pettis (we talked about him) by decision and Melendez by dec. Melendez, who lost his next 2 fights and maybe retired?

So we can kind of do what you did to Tony's record...but worse with Dustin. Hell we can probably do it to anyone.

And that’s fair... but I will take the recency of Poirier’s wins over Tony’s. Tony has only beaten Pettis and Kevin Lee since 2016... that is honestly not that impressive. He’s turning 36 and has been in trouble in 3 of his last 4 fights so IMO... his time as a top guy is winding down. Now that he is choosing to sit out, he is wasting money-making time IMHO. Both are obviously elite fighters so it’s splitting hairs but for me, I’ll take an active fighter whose best days are now over an inactive fighter whose best days are likely 3 years ago

 

[mkess101]

And that’s fair... but I will take the recency of Poirier’s wins over Tony’s. Tony has only beaten Pettis and Kevin Lee since 2016... that is honestly not that impressive. He’s turning 36 and has been in trouble in 3 of his last 4 fights so IMO... his time as a top guy is winding down. Now that he is choosing to sit out, he is wasting money-making time IMHO. Both are obviously elite fighters so it’s splitting hairs but for me, I’ll take an active fighter whose best days are now over an inactive fighter whose best days are likely 3 years ago

Let's not age Tony too much, he literally JUST turned 35. Yeah, I know you mean by November so he'll be halfway to 36, but still.

2 of his last 4 fights he got stung, yeah. He was never in trouble vs Lee, despite Lee having mount. He landed nothing other than to Tony's arms and shoulders, and Tony regained guard a few second before the round ended. That scenario gets so wildly misrepresented here. Lando did hurt him the head kick yeah, but again extremely quick recovery just like vs Pettis. Dustin was getting battered by Gaethje and was in a dogfight with Pettis on the mat for awhile too before finally getting the better of it.

I will grant that Dustin has been a bit more active recently, although only some of that is Tony's fault.

Now we see that Dustin has said that he was specifically told that the winner of him and Max is NOT guaranteed the fight with Khabib in the fall. Makes Tony's decision maybe a bit easier to understand on numerous levels I would say.

 

[FreddieRoachsVoice]

Let's not age Tony too much, he literally JUST turned 35. Yeah, I know you mean by November so he'll be halfway to 36, but still.

2 of his last 4 fights he got stung, yeah. He was never in trouble vs Lee, despite Lee having mount. He landed nothing other than to Tony's arms and shoulders, and Tony regained guard a few second before the round ended. That scenario gets so wildly misrepresented here. Lando did hurt him the head kick yeah, but again extremely quick recovery just like vs Pettis. Dustin was getting battered by Gaethje and was in a dogfight with Pettis on the mat for awhile too before finally getting the better of it.

I will grant that Dustin has been a bit more active recently, although only some of that is Tony's fault.

Now we see that Dustin has said that he was specifically told that the winner of him and Max is NOT guaranteed the fight with Khabib in the fall. Makes Tony's decision maybe a bit easier to understand on numerous levels I would say.

He was still not looking great against weaker competition than he would have a few years ago. Lee is a very, very overrated fighter and had staph so not a fine showing by Tony. We all know he’s tough but relying on that and looking for a sub is not going to work against Khabib. That fight would be the Beatdown of the Year IMHO.

That being said, I don’t think either will get the shot. Poirier has a glass chin IMO and I believe Max will KO him but I also believe that Conor will get a gift title shot if he beats Cowboy so really, neither might ever get a shot. I still think it was incredibly foolish for Tony to turn down a fight with Max as at least he would be giving himself the best possible chance, but now he is looking like the odd man out and a great deal of that falls on him IMO

 

[mkess101]

He was still not looking great against weaker competition than he would have a few years ago. Lee is a very, very overrated fighter and had staph so not a fine showing by Tony. We all know he’s tough but relying on that and looking for a sub is not going to work against Khabib. That fight would be the Beatdown of the Year IMHO.

That being said, I don’t think either will get the shot. Poirier has a glass chin IMO and I believe Max will KO him but I also believe that Conor will get a gift title shot if he beats Cowboy so really, neither might ever get a shot. I still think it was incredibly foolish for Tony to turn down a fight with Max as at least he would be giving himself the best possible chance, but now he is looking like the odd man out and a great deal of that falls on him IMO

I so hope we do get Tony vs Khabib as I think you and so many others will be stunned at what a dogfight it ends up as. Assuming they don't wait until Tony is 40 years old to do it...

 

[FreddieRoachsVoice]

I so hope we do get Tony vs Khabib as I think you and so many others will be stunned at what a dogfight it ends up as. Assuming they don't wait until Tony is 40 years old to do it...

Tony is far too willing to take damage in order to try and gas his opponent out/look for a sub... neither of which will happen against Khabib. Offensive submissions are extremely overrated at the highest level of mma and someone like Tony who is confident in his guard is going to get taken down and not try to scramble enough (not that it would matter) and end up taking an incredible beating.

Factors like "active guard or active off of his back with strikes" seem like neutralizers on paper but then in reality, you'll see just how suffocating Khabib is on top and how big of a difference there is between getting controlled by someone like Kevin Lee and getting completely dominated by Khabib. IMO, that is a terrible match-up for Tony and he would get absolutely annihilated if he ever does get his shot. I dislike Khabib tremendously and find him incredibly boring but just because Tony is a "warrior" and an exciting fan favorite doesn't mean he'd have a chance.

 

[mkess101]

Tony is far too willing to take damage in order to try and gas his opponent out/look for a sub... neither of which will happen against Khabib. Offensive submissions are extremely overrated at the highest level of mma and someone like Tony who is confident in his guard is going to get taken down and not try to scramble enough (not that it would matter) and end up taking an incredible beating.

Factors like "active guard or active off of his back with strikes" seem like neutralizers on paper but then in reality, you'll see just how suffocating Khabib is on top and how big of a difference there is between getting controlled by someone like Kevin Lee and getting completely dominated by Khabib. IMO, that is a terrible match-up for Tony and he would get absolutely annihilated if he ever does get his shot. I dislike Khabib tremendously and find him incredibly boring but just because Tony is a "warrior" and an exciting fan favorite doesn't mean he'd have a chance.

I just disagree. Khabib is smothering and great with his top control, but he's also never faced anyone like Tony who is so active off his back and who simply doesn't tire. I think Tony in fact will attempt to scramble more, but I also think he will make Khabib work much harder than he's previously had to.

You are seriously underrating Kevin Lee's grappling WHEN he's fresh. Who has he not dominated on the mat before he tires? Subbed Chiesa easily, completely dominated Iaquinta grappling-wise for 2 rounds. He's a BEAST, until he gasses and then he sucks.

In addition, Khabib has slowed in fights, even when completely being the hammer and not the nail. Has he "gassed"? No. But he's noticeably slowed vs Iaquinta and to a lesser degree Barboza. He needed to basically take round 3 off vs Conor after going hard for the finish in round 2. The thing is, he's always taken enough steam out of his opponents that him tiring hasn't mattered. But what if he faces someone who has beyond elite cardio, someone who's capable off their back AND who simply doesn't get tired? Round 4 rolls around and...?

 

[FreddieRoachsVoice]

I just disagree. Khabib is smothering and great with his top control, but he's also never faced anyone like Tony who is so active off his back and who simply doesn't tire. I think Tony in fact will attempt to scramble more, but I also think he will make Khabib work much harder than he's previously had to.

You are seriously underrating Kevin Lee's grappling WHEN he's fresh. Who has he not dominated on the mat before he tires? Subbed Chiesa easily, completely dominated Iaquinta grappling-wise for 2 rounds. He's a BEAST, until he gasses and then he sucks.

In addition, Khabib has slowed in fights, even when completely being the hammer and not the nail. Has he "gassed"? No. But he's noticeably slowed vs Iaquinta and to a lesser degree Barboza. He needed to basically take round 3 off vs Conor after going hard for the finish in round 2. The thing is, he's always taken enough steam out of his opponents that him tiring hasn't mattered. But what if he faces someone who has beyond elite cardio, someone who's capable off their back AND who simply doesn't get tired? Round 4 rolls around and...?

I will account bet you right now that Khabib easily beats Tony if they ever fight

 

[I am your real dad]

Imagine if this fight got booked, what a fight... This should be the interim title fight and if I'd love to watch it if Max pulls out for some reason. It wasn't going to happen as an original plan considering drawing power but cmon, thats a just bleed fight. Who do you got winning if it ends up happening down the road?

I feel dustin would trouble ferguson but eventually crumble with fergusons pace and get ko-ed eventually. Its actually hard to pick though, Poirier has fast hands, grappling skills, and a lot of heart. On the other hand, he did get knocked out cold by Michael Johnson a while back

Ferguson also got beat by Johnson.

Would be a close fight and a fun one to watch.

 

[mkess101]

I will account bet you right now that Khabib easily beats Tony if they ever fight

Account bet? You mean like loser leaves Sherdog? My 12 year old account vs your almost 1 year old account? Umm...why would I do that?

In addition, who decides what counts as "easily"? And another point...Tony is now 35 years old. My assessment of their fight is IF it is Tony's next fight. He's taken a career's worth of damage and he's 5 years older than Khabib. If they fight in 18 months and Tony has gone through 2 more tough opponents to get there, I may well view it differently.

In addition, I've been wrong about fights before. I'm right more than I'm wrong, but it's not like I have some crystal ball.

 

[FreddieRoachsVoice]

Account bet? You mean like loser leaves Sherdog? My 12 year old account vs your almost 1 year old account? Umm...why would I do that?

In addition, who decides what counts as "easily"? And another point...Tony is now 35 years old. My assessment of their fight is IF it is Tony's next fight. He's taken a career's worth of damage and he's 5 years older than Khabib. If they fight in 18 months and Tony has gone through 2 more tough opponents to get there, I may well view it differently.

In addition, I've been wrong about fights before. I'm right more than I'm wrong, but it's not like I have some crystal ball.

And here come the excuses <Lmaoo>. Okay, if you're not "confident" enough to bet your account, how about $1000 USD straight up? I take Khabib, you take Tony and the fight has to take place within one year from today for the bet to be valid. Completely even playing field so if you're that confident in the overrated Tony, show it now