idt Dustin is the type to take a dive. Plus there is much more incentive in defeating Mcgregor (would lead to a triology) then a dive.
If Dustin loses to Mcgregor, it simply means Conor is the better fighter that night, and that he has Dustin's number. Mentally wise, Dustin thinks he can beat Conor, and it's true he can. But Conor Knows that he can beat Dustin, which he has.
Stylistic wise, Conor should be able to beat him. Conor advantage in striking is larger than Dustin's advantage in grappling, which he doesn't really use. Plus Dustin will likely want to stand and bang with Conor. Not to say Dustin can't win. As the fight gets closer and closer, I'm starting to lean more towards Dustin then I initally did. Still favor Conor 55/45 though.
I agree that Dustin would likely do better against Chandler and Oliveria compared to Conor.