Do you give Grasso the advantage anywhere?

I think she throws better combinations with her hands. Better pure boxing. But when you factor in Valentina's kicks and general variety I think Shevchenko has the slight striking edge. And Valentina is way better on the ground so she should be able to take the fight there if Grasso's straight punches give her any difficulties.
 
Grasso is better at basic boxing. She probably won't win but I'll be rooting for her the whole fight none the less.
 
fortheo said:
It seems like everyone is on the same page then. I am hoping that she can surprise us though.
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I wouldn't mind it even if it means I'm wrong. It would certainly make things interesting. Not many people gave Pena a chance to upset Amanda after all (for as long as that lasted).

For me, I feel like I've received sufficient evidence to come to the conclusion that if/when Val is dethroned that it'll be at the hands of a girl who's large & strong for the weight class and is a dominant primary offensive grappler with good wrestling, who's heavy on top, can land GnP, and will threaten submissions at a high level for several rounds straight without gassing. They also need just enough basic awareness on the feet to not eat a head kick and get KTFO'd.

Grasso just doesn't fit the bill for me. She's done a good job of rounding out her game and I think she's a valuable addition to the weight class, but she's still a primary boxer at heart who's not exactly a big Flyweight. She doesn't wrestle. She doesn't throw many kicks. She can scramble around on the ground and seize opportunistic submissions here or there, but not in a way that will likely be threatening to Shevchenko IMO. She has sharper hands than Valentina, but not much pop in her shots. So whereas the boxer in Amanda was able to get Shevchenko's respect with her power and the threat of the takedown, Grasso doesn't have either one of those things backing up her own boxing.

Grasso would have to fight a perfect fight where she's constantly pressuring Val for five rounds, crowding her kicks, putting out volume with her punches and maybe seeking the opportunity for a reactive takedown of some kind to threaten a sub. It's a big ask, especially because I think Val will be dancing around and picking her apart with kicks at all three levels from range rather than getting into a pocket brawl. I also think Shevchenko is the one who's more likely to begin threatening takedowns of her own and ending up on top just as you said earlier.

In other words, Val has effectively one thing to worry about for the vast majority of the fight and that's Alexa's pressure-boxing. Grasso has to worry about an entire arsenal of kicks along with Valentina's fairly dangerous offensive grappling game... and frankly I'd go so far as to argue that the gap in their respective boxing games is narrower than the gap in their kicking & wrestling. Not sure about the BJJ, though gun to my head I'd probably favor Val in the department, too.

It doesn't really help that Alexa's win over Vivi, while a solid enough performance, wasn't as resounding or as dominant as I would have liked.
 
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The only way I see Grasso winning is if Val has complelely wrote her off.
 
Val’s been doing combat sports forever

Did the santos fight go down the way it did because val is finally on the decline?

that would be Alexa’s only advantage
 
I'd say only with her hands, and that's just a slight edge. I can't see any possible way for her to beat Val though, as she definitely doesn't have the pop to put her down with them.
 
She's hotter
Uh
She can box better
That's about it
Maybe gas tank?
I dunno LOL expecting us to analyze wmma
<JonesDXSuckIt>
 
fortheo said:
The closer we are to this fight, the more I've been thinking about it.

Grasso does have decent kicks -- I like her high kick from her lead leg that has very little tell and she will throw a decent amount of leg kicks, but I think we can all agree that val is better at kicking range.

At boxing range I do give grasso a slight advantage mainly because she's busier and will string together nice combos.

Clinch range you need to favor val, both with the muy thai and the takedowns.

I think on the mat they're at a similar level, but because of val's superior wrestling and takedown game, I expect her to be on top and thus win most of the ground exchanges. Alexa has become very good at scrambling lately and isn't afraid to go for subs. It could be interesting on the mat, but I do think the one on top will be winning the grappling for the most part, and I expect that to be val.
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Great analysis sir.
The thing I see as the biggest problem for Grasso is if she starts feeling good and stringing together combos, thats gonna leave her open for the counter.

Valentina has a great check right hook, and she's still fast enough to make it happen.
 
Safton said:
I wouldn't mind it even if it means I'm wrong. It would certainly make things interesting. Not many people gave Pena a chance to upset Amanda, for as long as that lasted.

For me, I feel like I've received sufficient evidence to come to the conclusion that if/when Val is dethroned that it'll be at the hands of a girl who's large & strong for the weight class and is a dominant primary offensive grappler with good wrestling, who's heavy on top, can land GnP, and threaten submissions at a high level for several rounds straight without gassing. They also need just enough basic awareness on the feet to not eat a head kick and get KTFO'd.

Grasso just doesn't fit the bill for me. She's done a good job of rounding out her game and I think she's a valuable addition to the weight class, but she's still a primary boxer who's not exactly a big Flyweight. She doesn't wrestle. She doesn't throw many kicks. She can scramble around and seize opportunistic submissions here or there, but not in a way that will likely be threatening to Shevchenko IMO. She has sharper hands than Valentina, but not much pop in her shots. So whereas the boxer in Amanda was able to get Shevchenko's respect with her power and the threat of the takedown, Grasso doesn't have either one of those things backing up her hands. She would have to fight a perfect fight where she's constantly pressuring Val for five rounds, crowding her kicks, putting out volume with her punches and maybe seeking the opportunity for a reactive takedown of some kind to latch up a sub. It's a big ask, especially because I think Val will be dancing around and lighting her up with kicks at all three levels rather than getting into a pocket brawl. I also think Shevchenko is the one who's more likely to begin threatening takedowns and ending up on top just as you said earlier.

In other words, Val has effectively one thing to worry about for the vast majority of the fight and that's Alexa's pressure-boxing. Grasso has to worry about an entire arsenal of kicks along with Valentina's fairly dangerous offensive grappling game... and frankly I'd go so far as to argue that the gap in their respective boxing games is narrower than the gap in their kicking & wrestling games. Not sure about the BJJ, though gun to my head I'd probably favor Val in the department.
Click to expand...

You write MMA poetry sir lol.
 
She has the advantage that Val is due for a loss and narrowly escaped that outcome against Santos
 
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This fight is gonna be a one sided beatdown.
Grasso is not a real challenge for Valentina.

Tatiana Suarez is the one that's gonna give her trouble.
 
Val will win with kicks to the body, and her body lock takedowns.
 
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