Elections Democratic Road to 2016 Primary Thread

Am I going blind or is Bernie not a fucking option on this poll?
 
Jack V Savage said:
It's interesting to see how Democrats are reacting to this. I feel certain that if Bush or Walker had a similar type of problem, Republicans would be rushing to their defense. I wonder what accounts for the difference. Maybe just that liberals are naturally more suspicious of authority.
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More like something you've noted before: liberals don't really like the Clintons that much. Bill was respected because he won, but the sliminess is off-putting. IMO they want someone new and fresh.
 
Quipling said:
The poll predates Bernie's entry into the race.
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It's been five days, and I've not seen any new polls about how the debate effected Hillary's or Bernie's numbers nationally, or the early primary states.
 
Just wanted to stop in here and say..... i think Hillary is screwed. She is done. Turns out there are no emails from her trip to Libya and no backups because of the private emails deal.

I think this stops her campaign in the tracks.
 
El Chapo said:
Am I going blind or is Bernie not a fucking option on this poll?
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I made this thread on 2-21. Even though I updated the opt picture, there wasn't much talk about Bernie as a potential candidate at the time. People were still mentioning Cuomo if you want reference.

If people would just get this thread to v2, we would have an updated poll. I mean, Elizabeth Warren and a bunch of others not running are listed on it, ha. The GOP thread is at v4.
 

Martin O'Malley Readies His Run as the Un-Hillary
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Martin O’Malley had just delivered a 10-minute talk to a few dozen Merrimack County Democrats, then spent 15 minutes walking from handshake to handshake, compliment to compliment. Voters born in Maryland, which O’Malley governed as a Democrat for eight years, wanted to tell him what a nice job he’d done. Educators wanted to bend his ear about the state’s soaring test scores. A man with a camera mounted on a pole introduced himself as the host of a public access show and asked if the Democrats would at least have some presidential debates. O’Malley pledged that they would.

Then came Charles Pewitt. Heavily bearded, a battered New England Patriots cap hooding his eyes, Pewitt had a way of finding candidates in unprotected habitats. He walked over to O’Malley and announced the topic of his question.

“Immigration,” said Pewitt.
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GearSolidMetal said:
It's been five days, and I've not seen any new polls about how the debate effected Hillary's or Bernie's numbers nationally, or the early primary states.
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I think he is talking about the thread poll.

Also, I find the pollster take forever after a debate. Usually a week minimum to get even one.
 
Lead Salad said:
I think he is talking about the thread poll.

Also, I find the pollster take forever after a debate. Usually a week minimum to get even one.
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Ummmm.... not quite.

We saw reliable poll results within days of the first Republican debate. I'm not talking about the 'who won the debate' polls. There were noticable differences in the before and after numbers.
 
GearSolidMetal said:
Ummmm.... not quite.

We saw reliable poll results within days of the first Republican debate. I'm not talking about the 'who won the debate' polls. There were noticable differences in the before and after numbers.
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ed.
 
Emails May Be a Key to Addressing 'Pay-to-Play' Whispers at Clinton Foundation

"Follow the money." That apocryphal phrase, attributed to Watergate whistle-blower "Deep Throat," explains why the biggest threat to Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential dreams is not her emails. It's her family foundation. That's where the money is: corporate money, foreign money, gobs of money sloshing around a vanity charity that could be renamed "Clinton Conflicts of Interest Foundation."

What about the emails? Hillary Clinton's secret communications cache is a bombshell deserving of full disclosure because of her assault on government transparency and electronic security. But its greatest relevancy is what the emails might reveal about any nexus between Clinton's work at State and donations to the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation from U.S. corporations and foreign nations.
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GearSolidMetal said:
Ummmm.... not quite.

We saw reliable poll results within days of the first Republican debate. I'm not talking about the 'who won the debate' polls. There were noticable differences in the before and after numbers.
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I just checked the records on RCP. The first 5 polls that occurred after the debate were published on the 11th, 13th, 16th, 25th, and 30th. Outside of the rasmussen poll, which merely overlapped with the debate and therefore had 'tainted' data, these were all a week or more later.

I don't know why you insist on making falsifiable claims without performing a basic check.
 
DirkDiggles said:
Just wanted to stop in here and say..... i think Hillary is screwed. She is done. Turns out there are no emails from her trip to Libya and no backups because of the private emails deal.

I think this stops her campaign in the tracks.
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I don't think the email thing itself is a deal breaker. Chris Christie's scandal was way worse imo and it seems he will still likely run.

That said, I am glad the email thing is making her look bad among liberals. I'm not really a fan of her and would like to see the dems produce a better candidate.
 
Quipling said:
I just checked the records on RCP. The first 5 polls that occurred after the debate were published on the 11th, 13th, 16th, 25th, and 30th. Outside of the rasmussen poll, which merely overlapped with the debate and therefore had 'tainted' data, these were all a week or more later.

I don't know why you insist on making falsifiable claims without performing a basic check.
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The closest thing I could think of he may be mentioning is the survey monkey poll that came out farily quick after but it wasn't scientific.

You almost have to give it a week because most polls cover a range of 4-5 days and then they take a little to put everything together on the data.
 
as an european, the hillary run feels wrong, more like a royal succession than an actual struggle. the first us woman president should be someone you could root for. hillary seems unlikable.

what about someone like Elisabeth warren?
 
We don't have national polls out yet but there is a NH poll taken the two days after the debate that put Clinton back in the lead. I've seen polls like that from time to time but a national poll usually takes much more effort and time to complete,
 
indrid said:
as an european, the hillary run feels wrong, more like a royal succession than an actual struggle. the first us woman president should be someone you could root for. hillary seems unlikable.

what about someone like Elisabeth warren?
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Everyone loves Warren but she insists she's not running.
 
Quipling said:
I just checked the records on RCP. The first 5 polls that occurred after the debate were published on the 11th, 13th, 16th, 25th, and 30th. Outside of the rasmussen poll, which merely overlapped with the debate and therefore had 'tainted' data, these were all a week or more later.

I don't know why you insist on making falsifiable claims without performing a basic check.
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They're not falsified. It's quite common for the undecided to change their candidate after a positive debate performance, but change it again within days. This is how it's been on both parties as far back as there's been televised candidate debates.
 
GearSolidMetal said:
They're not falsified. It's quite common for the undecided to change their candidate after a positive debate performance, but change it again within days. This is how it's been on both parties as far back as there's been televised candidate debates.
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I said your claim was falsifiable, not that the data was falsified. Jeezy-petes, learn to read, and if you don't understand what something means, look it up. Falsifiable means that your claim was one that was possible to prove to be false.
 
indrid said:
as an european, the hillary run feels wrong, more like a royal succession than an actual struggle. the first us woman president should be someone you could root for. hillary seems unlikable.

what about someone like Elisabeth warren?
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Warren is plausible, hilary is horrible. Hilary is a scam, warren probably the only democrat I could vote for.
 
Quipling said:
I said your claim was falsifiable, not that the data was falsified. Jeezy-petes, learn to read, and if you don't understand what something means, look it up. Falsifiable means that your claim was one that was possible to prove to be false.
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The debate was on September 7th.

As you said, the newest polls after that was on the 11th. Which was 4 days later.

It's been 5 days now since the Democrat debate.

My claim was...

We saw reliable poll results within days of the first Republican debate
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and wasn't falsified. Thank you.
 
Hillary may as well be a fucking Republican. This country is doomed.
 
Lead Salad said:
I made this thread on 2-21. Even though I updated the opt picture, there wasn't much talk about Bernie as a potential candidate at the time. People were still mentioning Cuomo if you want reference.

If people would just get this thread to v2, we would have an updated poll. I mean, Elizabeth Warren and a bunch of others not running are listed on it, ha. The GOP thread is at v4.
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Well that's because the repub race is a shit show reality tv style Twitter fuelled pile of crap.

The democratic race only has clintons emails to side track us, otherwise they are staying on topic which isn't as post worthy...


#feeltheburn
 
GearSolidMetal said:
The debate was on September 7th.

As you said, the newest polls after that was on the 11th. Which was 4 days later.

It's been 5 days now since the Democrat debate.

My claim was...



and wasn't falsified. Thank you.
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And as I pointed out, that was the only poll in under a week, and it overlapped with the debate.
 
Lead Salad said:
I heard about this and thought it was people joking about it. I guess he might be considering it.
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I would not have expected that since he didn't bother in 2008.

Personally I think Gore would actually be more liked among both libs and conservatives than Hilary.
 
BVG said:
Well that's because the repub race is a shit show reality tv style Twitter fuelled pile of crap.

The democratic race only has clintons emails to side track us, otherwise they are staying on topic which isn't as post worthy...


#feeltheburn
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I think it's more that one race is fairly lopsided compared to the other. There is far more to post when there are 16 candidates in on and pretty much 2 at this point in the other.
 
MeatheadMike said:
I would not have expected that since he didn't bother in 2008.

Personally I think Gore would actually be more liked among both libs and conservatives than Hilary.
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I don't think climate change is the central issue people want to be talking about. If he could transition it to a sensible energy policy message than maybe he would have something. I really think 2016 will be about immigration and wage stagnation.
 
Quipling said:
And as I pointed out, that was the only poll in under a week, and it overlapped with the debate.
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But that's my point. We haven't seen ANY national polls yet, 'reliable' or not. As I said, people change their mind all the time.
 
speakhandsforme said:
Don't sleep on Chafee.
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All he needs to do is actually build up enough credibility with the party so when he attacks another candidate, they will actually respond instead of saying no.
 
Elizabeth Warren doesn't want to run because she doesn't want to be President. It's a helluva job and she was in academia until she was 60 yrs old and very likely legitimately doesn't want the job. She has her niche carved out in the Senate, is a one issue Pol it seems.

It's too bad Obama owes Bubba a big favor for all the work he did for him in 2012, because Dems are stuck with Hillary as a result of Obama surely backing her. It would have been epic if Obama supported another candidate and threw his grass roots supporter list behind them.
 
According to CNBC, Biden will give decision in the next 48 hours.
 
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