Elections Democratic Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[ShoelessRye]

^People feel they know Hillary Clinton, for better or worse. How can she be anything other than a Washington insider given she lived in the WH for 8 yrs, was in the US Senate, Ran for President once already, was Secretary of State etc. Her life since Bill was in the WH is virtually an open book at this point (again for better or worse). It's not like she's going to run as an outsider or reformer.

If anything, running these stories now to create a narrative will push the GOP away from Jeb Bush because the GOP would want to have a nominee they could frame as an outsider, a renegade to shake things up versus the professional politician, ultimate insider Clinton. How can they attack Clinton for being a dynastic, nepotistic Washington insider and then run Jeb when there has already been two President Bushes in the last 25 years?

 

[wisdom blows]

 

[Lead]

^People feel they know Hillary Clinton, for better or worse. How can she be anything other than a Washington insider given she lived in the WH for 8 yrs, was in the US Senate, Ran for President once already, was Secretary of State etc. Her life since Bill was in the WH is virtually an open book at this point (again for better or worse). It's not like she's going to run as an outsider or reformer.

If anything, running these stories now to create a narrative will push the GOP away from Jeb Bush because the GOP would want to have a nominee they could frame as an outsider, a renegade to shake things up versus the professional politician, ultimate insider Clinton. How can they attack Clinton for being a dynastic, nepotistic Washington insider and then run Jeb when there has already been two President Bushes in the last 25 years?

Exactly. The funny thing is a party can shoot themselves in the foot by doing this. They attacked Obamacare hard before the primaries even occurred and nominated a guy who essentially made the same program in his own state. Huge disaster.

If you listen to Rubio and Walker, they are doing this same narrative with not just Clinton but also Bush. Obama did this in 08 with Clinton and then McCain. Ambition is often taken as a negative context even though thats a perfectly fine characteristic for one to possess, especially if they want to be President. People turn that ambition on elites as "power hungry". That's why many establishment candidates try to appear they don't even want to run until they finally do. Looking eager hurts while it likely would benefit a new younger candidate.

Your blessing is also your curse in elections. You could see Hillary as a long-served experienced and ready to serve President or a power hungry corrupt Washington insider. TBH, it likely is somewhere in the middle just as it is with any lifer in Washington. It's all what the campaigns project and what the general population perceives the person as.

 

[Diamond Jim]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...rt-julian-castro-to-endorse-hillary-next-week

"Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro is endorsing Democrat Hillary Clinton for president, a new report says.

Castro plans on backing Clinton during an event in San Antonio next week, according to BuzzFeed.

The HUD secretary was born in San Antonio with his twin, Rep. Joaquín Castro (D-Texas) and once served as the city’s mayor.

Julián Castro is frequently mentioned as a potential running mate for Clinton during the 2016 presidential election.

Joaquín Castro, meanwhile, has repeatedly campaigned with the former first lady this summer in critical voting states like Iowa.

Latinos for Hillary is also organizing a number of Hispanic house parties heading into next week’s first televised Democratic presidential debate on Oct. 13."

 

[Lead]

Hillary's emails are on a homebrew server registered to a pseudonym

Clinton's private email account surfaced publicly in March 2013 after a convicted Romanian hacker known as Guccifer published emails stolen from former White House adviser Sidney Blumenthal. The internet domain was registered around the time of her secretary of state nomination.

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-South Carolina), chairman of the special House committee investigating the Benghazi attacks, said the committee learned last summer

 

[Lead]

A Biden Run Would Expose Foreign Policy Differences With Hillary Clinton

She showed up with color-coded maps. He wrote long private memos. She argued for sending more troops to fight the enemy and help rebuild a country. He argued for a more targeted mission, a smaller deployment and a limit on how long they would stay.

In the end, neither Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Joseph R. Biden Jr. succeeded entirely during that momentous debate over Afghanistan in 2009 in the Situation Room. President Obama opted to send 30,000 more troops, much as Mrs. Clinton recommended, while setting a deadline for withdrawing them, much as Mr. Biden suggested.

This is going to be Hillary's biggest problem with her base. Because she is running as a woman, she takes a far more hawk stance on FP. This, imo, was the difference between her and Obama in 08 (if any portion of Obama winning was due to a difference in stances, I'm sure a lot of it was charisma)

 

[Lead]

I guess it isn't very secure in comparison to other email domains.

Clinton

 

[Anung Un Rama]

A Biden Run Would Expose Foreign Policy Differences With Hillary Clinton


This is going to be Hillary's biggest problem with her base. Because she is running as a woman, she takes a far more hawk stance on FP. This, imo, was the difference between her and Obama in 08 (if any portion of Obama winning was due to a difference in stances, I'm sure a lot of it was charisma)

I disagree with that entire article. Their policy, ideology, and voting differences are practically nonexistent. The only differences between the two are their genders (I'm not sure if that gives either one the advantage, tbh), their charisma (+100 for Uncle Joe), their "trusworthiness" (+100 for Uncle Joe), and the types of gaffs their prone to commit (another toss up).

As a Bernie supporter, I fear the Joe.

 

[ShoelessRye]

I'd love it if those assumed to be deleted for ever emails ended up leaked by some foreign entity to wikileaks or something. Be interested if she shit talked Obama to other foreign leaders - or made "When I'm President" promises...

 

[Lead]

I disagree with that entire article. Their policy, ideology, and voting differences are practically nonexistent. The only differences between the two are their genders (I'm not sure if that gives either one the advantage, tbh), their charisma (+100 for Uncle Joe), their "trusworthiness" (+100 for Uncle Joe), and the types of gaffs their prone to commit (another toss up).

As a Bernie supporter, I fear the Joe.

If there are questions in the debate on FP, Hillary is going to lean more hawk. Doesn't matter if the end result and past positions are virtually identical. It's an election. It's all about positioning, even if the spots you pick don't reflect reality.

 

[Gandhi]

The story standing alone likely won't mean much but if you look at the narrative that's developing, people are trying to frame Hillary as an corrupt lifetime Washington insider. Little stories like this help build on that picture. Parties do this all the time to opposing candidates. If your campaign can successful stereotype the other side negatively, you have a good chance at winning. The most surprising thing I'm seeing from these stories is they are coming from the New York Times. I'm unsure if they are hoping for a different candidate than Hillary or they want to publish the dirt on her before the election is in full swing.

Romney easily got characterized early in 2012 as rich and out of touch. The media even took things out of context to further that perception. At one of his rallies, he was trying to explain how the private sector drives innovation that affects American's daily lives. He used an example of touch screen ordering at gas stations to get fast food. The media took the portion of the clip about him being excited about the touch screen and then presented the narrative he just found out about them and is so rich he didn't know they existed.

Prime example where a candidate was actually trying to portray the exact opposite image (talking about everyday innovations American's enjoy) and the media fitting it into the narrative they've decided (rich out of touch guy running for president)

Here is an opposing article from the Daily Beast as well:
You Better Believe Hillary Clinton

 

[Anung Un Rama]

If there are questions in the debate on FP, Hillary is going to lean more hawk. Doesn't matter if the end result and past positions are virtually identical. It's an election. It's all about positioning, even if the spots you pick don't reflect reality.

True enough, but it's not going to be the difference maker the article is making it out to be.

 

[Lead]

Battenfeld: Clinton email scandal may elevate former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley

If you want to know what life without Hillary looks like, drive up to a tiny coffee shop in 
Concord, N.H., tonight and look for the bland guy speaking awkwardly to a handful of curious customers.

That would be Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland. Chances are you wouldn’t know him if you tripped over him, yet he could become the accidental front-runner if Hillary Clinton’s campaign continues to implode.

The disclosure of Clinton’s 
secret email account as secretary of state has not only severely damaged her presidential prospects, but exposed the Democrats’ complete lack of a bench — assuming U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren stays out of it. A race without Hillary would be like the Wizard of Oz without Dorothy. Sure, the Tin Man’s a nice guy, but not exactly great box office.

Weighing 2016 bid, Democrat O'Malley returns to New Hampshire

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley is returning to the early voting state of New Hampshire as he continues to weigh a 2016 presidential bid.

O'Malley will attend a fundraiser with Merrimack County Democrats at Gibson's Bookstore in Concord Friday evening and an event at Executive Councilor Chris Pappas's home Saturday.

 

[RetiredWisFighter]

I disagree with that entire article. Their policy, ideology, and voting differences are practically nonexistent. The only differences between the two are their genders (I'm not sure if that gives either one the advantage, tbh), their charisma (+100 for Uncle Joe), their "trusworthiness" (+100 for Uncle Joe), and the types of gaffs their prone to commit (another toss up).

As a Bernie supporter, I fear the Joe.

Truth. Though I recall Biden sounding kind of dumb during the VP debate

 

[SpidermanISGOAT]

People are getting sick of Hillary were I am and I am talking about Democrats.

 

[Lead]

True enough, but it's not going to be the difference maker the article is making it out to be.

I think Bernie focuses on Domestic issues to the point where it would have to be Joe to drive that distinction. Not really sure where Webb and O'Malley stand on FP. Was just going to wait until the debates to hear their views aside from some headlines I've seen.

 

[Lead]

People are getting sick of Hillary were I am and I am talking about Democrats.

That's cause she has been called the next president since Obama won office in 2008. Think how obnoxious it must sound to indepedents/republicans.

 

[wisdom blows]

Fear Joe? What does he bring that would take votes from Bernie? He is just another corporate centrist. Voted for the Iraq War, for the Patriot Act, for strengthening War on Drugs and tough crime bills, sided with the credit card companies in making it tougher for low income people to file for bankruptcy, supports disastrous free trade agreements, etc etc

 

[Lead]

2016′s grotesque beginning: How Jeb & Hillary are quietly competing to win Wall Street

 

[speakhandsforme]

Fear Joe? What does he bring that would take votes from Bernie? He is just another corporate centrist. Voted for the Iraq War, for the Patriot Act, for strengthening War on Drugs and tough crime bills, sided with the credit card companies in making it tougher for low income people to file for bankruptcy, supports disastrous free trade agreements, etc etc

I was surprised to hear it, but apparently it's projected that a Biden entry would hurt Bernie more than Hillary. Biden has lots of support and not near the hate that Hilldog has.

Truth. Though I recall Biden sounding kind of dumb during the VP debate

I recall him eviscerating Paul Ryan to the point of toying with him and laughing at his points explicitly. Biden's thrashing of Ryan was more decisive than any of the debates between the actual candidates.

 

[ShoelessRye]

People are getting sick of Hillary were I am and I am talking about Democrats.

And how is this her fault? She hasn't declared her candidacy yet and is laying pretty low. It's the media filling it's 24 hour news cycle.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

I think Bernie focuses on Domestic issues to the point where it would have to be Joe to drive that distinction. Not really sure where Webb and O'Malley stand on FP. Was just going to wait until the debates to hear their views aside from some headlines I've seen.

I think the fact that Bernie voted against the Iraq war is still relevant and he has that advantage over Hillary and Joe. Meanwhile, Joe and Hill can only argue about the minor differences in how they would have executed the war on terror.

Even then, per the article, it was Hillary, not Joe, who pushed Obama to get OBL. That will play heavier than the no-fly zone in Libya. So again, I think their differences on FP are a wash. The biggest difference between the two is public perception, not policy.

 

[Lead]

The POLITICO Caucus: Dems fret over toll of Clinton email stories

Hillary Clinton’s email troubles won’t be so easy to delete.
Forty percent of Democratic insiders in Iowa and New Hampshire said the recent disclosures about her secret email accounts, combined with stories of foreign donations to the Clinton Foundation, are breaking through beyond the Beltway bubble.
Story Continued Below
This week’s survey of The POLITICO Caucus — a bipartisan group of key activists, operatives and thought leaders in the early states — finds a widespread feeling that the recent flurry of critical stories feeds a broader, negative storyline.

Politico does a weekly survey for both Dem and GOP primary issues to gauge where candidates are at.

 

[Lead]

I think the fact that Bernie voted against the Iraq war is still relevant and he has that advantage over Hillary and Joe. Meanwhile, Joe and Hill can only argue about the minor differences in how they would have executed the war on terror.

Even then, per the article, it was Hillary, not Joe, who pushed Obama to get OBL. That will play heavier than the no-fly zone in Libya. So again, I think their differences on FP are a wash. The biggest difference between the two is public perception, not policy.

I agree with that. I just think Joe will play to a far less aggressive strategy on the debate stage. The sad thing about these debates (even across party lines) is we usually see little to no difference in what they actually do compared to what they say for FP.

 

[Lead]

And how is this her fault? She hasn't declared her candidacy yet and is laying pretty low. It's the media filling it's 24 hour news cycle.

It's funny because the media is also trying to hang her at this point. I was surprised the Clinton Foundation story didn't make much news but this email story is everywhere now.

What's also weird is the NY Times has been heading all of this bad publicity. It just doesn't make sense to me right now. Just like when Romney pretended he was going to run again.

The Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy Sits Out the First Round of Clinton's Troubles

Here’s an experiment: Approach a member of the Democratic Party and mention Hillary Clinton’s private e-mails. Odds are excellent that the next words you hear will include the phrase “Republican attack machine,” or just “Republican attacks,” for short.

When, you may ask, did mainstream outlets qualify for inclusion in those ranks? The New York Times broke the story about her exclusive use of a private e-mail address as secretary of state. The Associated Press is considering legal action over never fulfilled Freedom of Information Act requests during Clinton's time as secretary of state. Bloomberg News has been all over the national security implications.

And how do you think that makes the real right-wing writers feel?

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Truth. Though I recall Biden sounding kind of dumb during the VP debate

But could you have a beer with him? That's what it's going to come down to. America voted for W. Twice. As soon as Joe enters, Hillary loses all the people who supported her as "their best shot". Then when his campaign starts and he is in his first debate she loses all non-feminists, so that only Clinton diehards remain, to Joe's "trustworthiness", "affability", and "genuineness".


Those same qualities, combined with being VP for 8 years, will be very difficult for Bernie to overcome by discussing the issues.





Funny how age doesn't come up when folks talk about Joe, but that is a big mark against Bernie.

 

[Lead]

The Hillary Camp's Rationale for Staying Quiet

Hillary Clinton won

 

[Anung Un Rama]

I agree with that. I just think Joe will play to a far less aggressive strategy on the debate stage. The sad thing about these debates (even across party lines) is we usually see little to no difference in what they actually do compared to what they say for FP.

Yup. This is a classic styles make debates matchup. Joe's cheeky debate style, which works much better as VPOTUS than Sen of RI, is a perfect style to confound Clinton's generic loud cadence sound byte style.

 

[SpidermanISGOAT]

And how is this her fault? She hasn't declared her candidacy yet and is laying pretty low. It's the media filling it's 24 hour news cycle.

She just isnt as likable to democrats and youth I talk to. She is seen as annoying for being in the media too much and many see her as too friendly to wall street. Then there are rumors of her mistreating people from an alleged story written by former secret service. She had her time and yes I realize she hasent declared a run yet but she i quickly becoming overplayed.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Fear Joe? What does he bring that would take votes from Bernie? He is just another corporate centrist. Voted for the Iraq War, for the Patriot Act, for strengthening War on Drugs and tough crime bills, sided with the credit card companies in making it tougher for low income people to file for bankruptcy, supports disastrous free trade agreements, etc etc

Joe won't steal Bernie support, but he will steal Clintons and take a big chunk out of the undecided that could have gone to Bermie. He will also eat up Hillary's financial backers, leaving her campaign a husk, while Bernie's should still be as strong or stronger.

Public perception of Joe vs Clinton is stark. The same way Obama neutralized the anti-war left, Joe entering the race will neutralize a lot of the public dissatisfaction in this race. It will be more difficult for Bernie to prove he's the better candidate vs Joe than Hillary.

 

[Lead]

A Bernie Sanders Presidential Bid Would Take On the Billionaires

Bernie Sanders has no patience.

No time for small talk, glad-handing, saying how great it is to be back in Iowa. The middle class is circling the drain, oligarchs are taking over the government, and people

 

[Lead]

Is Hillary Clinton Likable Enough?

Follow link to more data/charts. Pretty interesting stuff

 

[Lead]

Hillary in Nixon's shadow

It is a twist of history not likely to be lost on Hillary Rodham Clinton that only one person in modern times has managed to win the presidency after roughly two decades as a famous and polarizing figure in the first rank of political life. His name: Richard M. Nixon.
The Nixon example comes to mind not only because Clinton is in the midst of re-tooling herself and her staff for a 2016 campaign that will presumably introduce at least some version of a

 

[RetiredWisFighter]

What actually would be good, Biden announces and Clinton throws all her Super PAC money at bashing him because he'll come out with a big surge and the bashing hopefully draws people to Bernie

 

[Jack V Savage]

The POLITICO Caucus: Dems fret over toll of Clinton email stories

Politico does a weekly survey for both Dem and GOP primary issues to gauge where candidates are at.

It's interesting to see how Democrats are reacting to this. I feel certain that if Bush or Walker had a similar type of problem, Republicans would be rushing to their defense. I wonder what accounts for the difference. Maybe just that liberals are naturally more suspicious of authority.

 

[Lead]

What actually would be good, Biden announces and Clinton throws all her Super PAC money at bashing him because he'll come out with a big surge and the bashing hopefully draws people to Bernie

Hillary is in a weird enough position that I think attack ads would seriously damage her campaign, especially if Joe goes the same route as Bernie and says he isn't going to attack his opponents. Also, I think she will have to be somewhat restrained with how she attacks Joe, most of the distinctions (like the TPP) she is going to have with Joe are also going to contrast with the current administration. Obama has been very silent on who he would endorse and I think she appreciates that over him completely siding with Biden if her policies conflicted enough

 

[second sight]

Documents Obtained by Judicial Watch Reveal Top Hillary Clinton Advisers Knew Immediately that Assault on Benghazi was Armed Attack

First “[email protected]” email at 4:07 PM on September 11, 2012, reports, “… diplomatic mission is under attack … 20 armed people fired shots; explosions have been heard as well … Stevens in the compound safe haven”

http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-...ew-immediately-assault-benghazi-armed-attack/

Email at 6:06 PM September 11, 2012, states terrorist group, “Ansar al Sharia Claims Responsibility.”

 

[Lead]

Biden keeps Democrats waiting

Joe Biden entered another weekend surrounded by rumors of potential political plans and possible decision dates on Friday evening, but the Democratic field refused to remain in a holding pattern while the vice president dithered over 2016.
Bernie Sanders basked in the glow of raising $3.2 million in the two days since the debate and prepared to head to Iowa on Sunday while Hillary Clinton charged ahead with her own buoyant post-Las Vegas tour with a day of events in New Hampshire before a Democratic Party speech in Alabama on Saturday.

Sanders dismisses Trump's 'absurd' attacks

Sen. Bernie Sanders declined on Sunday to directly punch back at Donald Trump for saying the independent senator from Vermont would “dramatically raise taxes on Americans.”
"If I had to respond to every absurd thing Donald Trump said, I'd spend my whole life doing it," Sanders said on ABC's "This Week," in response to attacks by Trump for being a "communist" who wants to dramatically raise Americans' taxes.
Story Continued Below
Sanders, who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, acknowledged, however, that his proposal to make public college tuition free would involve raising taxes on some of the wealthiest Americans like Trump, a billionaire real estate developer and entertainer who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination.

 

[Lead]

It's interesting to see how Democrats are reacting to this. I feel certain that if Bush or Walker had a similar type of problem, Republicans would be rushing to their defense. I wonder what accounts for the difference. Maybe just that liberals are naturally more suspicious of authority.

I'd say that. Conservatism ties closer to nationalism than Liberalism. Rank and file.

To be fair, I think many conservatives wouldn't care if Jeb fell into a scandal. There is much more division with him as the establishment candidate than Hillary.

 

[Lead]

Hillary Clinton Bets on Future With Spending Spree to Build Campaign Infrastructure

Hillary Rodham Clinton has spent more than twice as much as any other presidential candidate on campaign staff, more than three times as much on office space and millions of dollars more on advertising, according to reports filed this week with the Federal Election Commission.

Three months before the first nominating contest, Mrs. Clinton has built a cash-hungry campaign juggernaut that is more far-flung and more expensive than anything else on the horizon.

Something like this can be pretty interesting. Some campaigns go completely big and if their cash flow dries up, they drop out fast. I think there is some concern with Jeb's burn rate compared to Hillary just for the fact he isn't even staying consistent in the polls.