Deconstructing MMA Myths... [Part 10] - B4 & After USADA...

Rum said:
Oh dang son, you ain't one of those poor suckers who goofed off in science and math class, labouring under the youthful delusion that those skills would be no used to you in the "real world" are you?

"Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary a qualification for efficient citizenship as the ability
to read and write." - HG WELLS

"Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all." - Charles Babbage

"Data is the sword of the 21st century, those who wield it well, the Samurai." - Jonathan Rosenberg

"Show me someone who goofed off in science and math classes and I'll show you a beta cuck snowflake." - Rum
Click to expand...
There´s only ONE Samurai...

minowa samu.png

A Brave Man, A Legend. RIP.
 
Rum said:
Oh dang son, you ain't one of those poor suckers who goofed off in science and math class, labouring under the youthful delusion that those skills would be no used to you in the "real world" are you?

"Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary a qualification for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write." - HG WELLS

"Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all." - Charles Babbage

"Data is the sword of the 21st century, those who wield it well, the Samurai." - Jonathan Rosenberg

"Show me someone who goofed off in science and math classes and I'll show you a beta cuck snowflake." - Rum
Click to expand...

Um ... my uncle is a maths teacher in germany and even he says that most people dont need 99,99% of this shit.

It depends on your job: In the past, if you wanted to program, you had to be good at maths. But now (most of the time) you only need the basics or barely math. For a computer science degree, you need to be good at maths.

Since the internet makes your life handicapped friendly, people probably need even less today.

"get laid u fucken n3rd" - Brock-B-Level-Athlete
 
Brock-B-level-Athlete said:
Um ... my uncle is a maths teacher in germany and even he says that most people dont need 99,99% of this shit.

It depends on your job: In the past, if you wanted to program, you had to be good at maths. But now (most of the time) you only need the basics or barely math. For a computer science degree, you need to be good at maths.

Since the internet makes your life handicapped friendly, people probably need even less today.

"get laid u fucken n3rd" - Brock-B-Level-Athlete
Click to expand...

Your uncle is clearly lying to you to keep you dumb so he can manipulate you.

Your beloved handicapped-friendly internet is riddled with lies son, and science - while not perfect - is BY FAR the best bullshit detector.
 
Kumason said:
That's so weird considering the majority of UFC fighters are from the US and easiest to test lol.Maybe you're talking % wise.Not that I wouldn't guess that,just saying.I am pretty indifferent to the worthless ped conversation,I do like seeing statistics on things though.
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Im indifferent too pal. PEDs are part of every sport and is not a moral thing. I just dont like USA nationalist bullshit pointing on brazilian fighters like all EEUU fighters are clean.
 
MastiffMike said:
Sure, his spreadsheet (.ods file) can be found here (it's updated weekly):
https://cloud.allsync.com/s/76dyXNjo27iotK3

The link to that page can also be found in his signature here on Sherdog.

One warning though - it's so full of info and data don't open it until you're ready to lose a few hours.

[BTW, I wasn't familiar with ".ods" files but it opens in Excel just fine. I think Dave/Dim must use some non-MS program - the heathen! Then again, he's not 'Merican so he's sorts shitty to begin with!]
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Thanks Mike, you're a goddamn champion. I guess I would've seen the link in his signature aeons ago but I always disable signatures on forums (they clutter up the joint visually for me) so I had no idea about that one.
 
gono btw said:
Today:

B4 & After USADA... Evolution of 18 MMA Teams´ Results.

Myth: Brazilian Teams are the ones which got worse in the USADA Era.

Source:

http://sportv.globo.com/site/combat...penho-das-equipes-no-ufc-pre-e-pos-usada.html

This survey tried to study the evolution of 18 MMA Teams´ results b4 & after the USADA Era (July 2015), analysing the 36 UFC events b4 & after July 2015. (= 72 events)

Criterias:

> Quantity of fights

> Significant Athletes in each team

> Relevance (national or international) of these fights


Results: [v= W / d=L]

3 Categories:

1/ Teams which got better:

View attachment 436469


2/ Teams which had similar results:

View attachment 436471


3/ Teams which got worse:

View attachment 436473
Click to expand...

I would argue they have chosen the wrong start point/

The program began in July 2015, but, they didnt start testing people properly till October 2015

The first whereabouts data deadline for athletes was September 30th.

The first three months was just education.
 
-Dim- said:
I would argue they have chosen the wrong start point/

The program began in July 2015, but, they didnt start testing people properly till October 2015

The first whereabouts data deadline for athletes was September 30th.

The first three months was just education.
Click to expand...
Still relevant imo since teams were adjustin´and not really sure about the efficiency of this new program...
 
Rum said:
Thanks Mike, you're a goddamn champion. I guess I would've seen the link in his signature aeons ago but I always disable signatures on forums (they clutter up the joint visually for me) so I had no idea about that one.
Click to expand...

up to date link https://7161.srvcloud.de/index.php/s/qrbXTLFr2YNn7Ha

the current sheet is the one in the main folder. Basically its the same sheet running since 2015, but at the end of each quarter i make a backup which goes in teh archive folder


some notes on the tables.

"Pre usada" data only includes fighters that were on the roster at the start of the USADA program. So it doesnt include data from fighters who left the ufc years before (it would be an impossible task putting that data together)

There may be a degree of innacuracy in the gym data because of how fighters move around from gym to gym. I try to keep track of it, but sometimes its bloody impossible to know where the hell they fighting and its not a priority piece of data for me

I use a start point of October 1st 2015 for all "pre usada" v "post usada" records because that is when the unanounced, whereabouts based out of competition testing started.
 
gono btw said:
Still relevant imo since teams were adjustin´and not really sure about the efficiency of this new program...
Click to expand...

well bugger all people were being tested. I would say that anyone that was doping up until midnight on June 30th would have still being seeing those benefits way into September

October 1st is the first time any of them were tested by surprise out of comp.
 
Jon Jones is definitley guilty based on this data.
 
-Dim- said:
well bugger all people were being tested. I would say that anyone that was doping up until midnight on June 30th would have still being seeing those benefits way into September

October 1st is the first time any of them were tested by surprise out of comp.
Click to expand...
Teams speculating about its efficiency and reactin´to it in the short-term is what interested me here, bugger.
 
Gyms come and go. BTT, Chute Boxe, MFS, Team Punishment, Team Tompkins, RTT, Hammerhouse, Lion's Den...these were all pre-USADA, and their decline was natural.

Nova Uniao looks pretty guilty to me, not because of the numbers, but because they had a tester arrested and deported for trying to take a urine sample from Aldo. But Aldo and Sandro got older and Barao got figured out... this could easily be the reason for the decline of Nova Uniao also. And Dede retired as head coach of Nova Uniao also...

I remember there was a journalist that went undercover at an MMA gym to see about steroid usage. He didn't name names, but people connected the dots and realized it was AKA, and the article said most of them were doping... so I find it interesting that their numbers are so bad, after USADA testing came into effect.

Team Alpha Male isn't churning out prospects like they used to, now that Faber,and Benavidez are older, and Dillashaw left. Yes, Cody, but that's about it. They used to be full of young talented prospects.

Look at Serra-Longo's gym for example. After Weidman lost, and Iaquinta got injured, Alajamain started performing worse... you need healthy confident talented training partners to succeed in MMA. As fighters age, new gyms emerge.

Tristar I expected a decline from too. GSP is retired and dealing with injuries over the past few years. Rory has lost motivation, not sure if Wonderboy visits them much anymore. Not saying they're all clean, but I personally wouldn't read into these stats much. ​
 
BeardotheWeirdo said:
Gyms come and go. BTT, Chute Boxe, MFS, Team Punishment, Team Tompkins, RTT, Hammerhouse, Lion's Den...these were all pre-USADA, and their decline was natural.

Nova Uniao looks pretty guilty to me, not because of the numbers, but because they had a tester arrested and deported for trying to take a urine sample from Aldo. But Aldo and Sandro got older and Barao got figured out... this could easily be the reason for the decline of Nova Uniao also.

I remember there was a journalist that went undercover at an MMA gym to see about steroid usage. He didn't name names, but people connected the dots and realized it was AKA, and the article said most of them were doping... so I find it interesting that their numbers are so bad, after USADA testing came into effect.

Team Alpha Male isn't churning out prospects like they used to, now that Faber,and Benavidez are older, and Dillashaw left. Yes, Cody, but that's about it. They used to be full of young talented prospects.

Look at Serra-Longo's gym for example. After Weidman lost, and Iaquinta got injured, Alajamain started performing worse... you need healthy confident talented training partners to succeed in MMA. As fighters age, new gyms emerge.

Tristar I expected a decline from too. GSP is retired and dealing with injuries over the past few years. Rory has lost motivation, not sure if Wonderboy visits them much anymore. Not saying they're all clean, but I personally wouldn't read into these stats much. ​
Click to expand...
Rory went up to challenge Mousasi, so there still must be some motivation there, realistically...
Barao became somehow the main target, TJ admitted that he spent some 18 months studyin´his game...Too many fights too...40+
Some teams had to adapt to new fight configurations too..
 
Is American Top Team American?

They have a lot of Brazilians.
Reem also passed through there.
 
Speaking as a high level quant guy, you can get into a lot of mischief when you attempt to move from individual-level analysis to more aggregated forms of analysis (see Simpson's paradox for an interesting example).

Moreover, there are quite a few potential confounding variables to think about, primarily related to quality of competition. For example, if your trend line is moving upward for quality of competition during the pre-post period, you would need to control for that (so as to understand the degree to which people are losing because of the pre/post issue rather than just facing tougher guys). Ditto with understanding where fighters are on a career arc...if the pre/post period covers a meaningful period of time, the pre-period might be associated with pre-(natural) decline, and the post-(natural) decline, even ignoring PED use/abandonment.

I haven't dug into any of this, so perhaps someone has already done this.
 
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