Contender Series - Week 9

[Thesnake101]

Guess all the favorites rolling last week means that now almost all of them are unplayable straight this time. Going to wait for the itd lines to drop, looking for Pinto, Dulatov and Vakhitov's. Also like Steele since Chasen's already been subbed before by a lesser grappler, but there's a chance they duke it out on the feet instead which could go either way since both can crack.

No clue about the aussie fight.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Tempted by Blair, I think he showed some big improvements on the feet in his last fight and I think Steele might have a hard time taking him down.

 

[Thesnake101]

Tempted by Blair, I think he showed some big improvements on the feet in his last fight and I think Steele might have a hard time taking him down.

If Steele couldn't crack like a motherfucker I'd be right there with you. Also the short-notice on Blair, and difference in competition level. Apart from Hassanzada, who he was admittedly dominating before getting caught, Chasen's been fighting poor competition imo.

Kody's at least taken on solid vets in his last two, and he's shown his power carries late.

 

[Thesnake101]

Some money came in on Masraf. Good news for anybody wanting to play Artem (me).

 

[rev0lver]

I taped this last week so hopefully my notes are holding up with my memory.

Steele and Vakhitov just seem like obvious choices. Legit as hell in their respective backgrounds. I don't think Blair is bad, but different levels here. Steele's standup actually looks pretty good despite the grappling background.

Pinto-Camacho looks like a shitshow. Pinto fights timidly without very good striking, Camacho fights sloppy as hell. Most I'd touch there is a couple bucks on Camacho KO or something like that.

I like Dulatov but he can get a little too wild and overexcited. Not sure if he's worth the line unless his ITD is good. Antunes is otherwise a live dog.

I think Gauci and Drilich both look pretty good actually. Could be a pretty even striking exchange, but I might give Gauci a slight grappling edge and I'd lean toward him overall.

 

[Thesnake101]

u2.5 for Dulatov fight
u1.5 for Vakhitov
o1.5 for Pinto
Steele ML

Those are my plays for tomorrow. Think they should hit barring something crazy. Always a sweat taking any sort of over with HWs, but Pinto just got done with going 5 rounds, has gone deep into fights with the stronger opposition he's faced and Camacho is undefeated from a solid camp.

Rest don't have the best odds but do seem like they should hit no sweat. Both Islam and his opponent are finishers, Vakhitov has yet to get close to the second round and Islem is looking to strike with him, and Steele should just be better than Blair.

 

[rev0lver]

Those are my plays for tomorrow. Think they should hit barring something crazy. Always a sweat taking any sort of over with HWs, but Pinto just got done with going 5 rounds, has gone deep into fights with the stronger opposition he's faced and Camacho is undefeated from a solid camp.

I think Pinto can definitely do long fights, but Camacho will kinda go in and KO or get KO'd. Pinto's relative timidity could make it go over regardless though, so I don't think it's a bad play.

 

[NewLockGuy]

Dulatov now sitting at -850.

 

[Thesnake101]

I think Pinto can definitely do long fights, but Camacho will kinda go in and KO or get KO'd. Pinto's relative timidity could make it go over regardless though, so I don't think it's a bad play.

Yeah, was looking at that but Camacho has also gone over a bunch as well. It's weird since like you said, he's a KO or be KO'd guy, but his fights last longer than you expect.

 

[Thesnake101]

Gonna make a small play on Vanilto. Yeah he's been finished in all of his losses but Dulatov's record is super padded and does not justify the line.

 

[rev0lver]

Absolutely don't understand how Dulatov is the biggest favorite on this card by the margin it's at. I like him and think he's entertaining, but as I said above, he can get too wild and overexcited. I'd actually consider Antunes the most likely dog to win on this card after Drilich. He's skilled and experienced.

Side note - Tapology lists Dulatov as 6'6 lmao. He's tall, but he's 6'3 or somewhat shorter.

 

[Thesnake101]

Absolutely don't understand how Dulatov is the biggest favorite on this card by the margin it's at. I like him and think he's entertaining, but as I said above, he can get too wild and overexcited. I'd actually consider Antunes the most likely dog to win on this card after Drilich. He's skilled and experienced.

Side note - Tapology lists Dulatov as 6'6 lmao. He's tall, but he's 6'3 or somewhat shorter.

It's gotta be the name + size combo vs a guy with a spotty record who has been finished in all of his losses. Even then, you'd expect like a -300 line or something, but that's actually his itd line!

Got Antunes as a +570 dog which is absolutely crazy.

 

[rev0lver]

I've seen some people take Islem here and I don't get it. He looks like he has some decent kickboxing, but he's literally up against one of the best kickboxers in the world. I'd get it if he were a wrestler, but he isn't. He has a sub win, but that was a result of him defending really sloppy grappling exchanges and getting the guy's neck on a silver platter. I don't think he has much in his pocket to take Artem down and hold him there, and this is mostly gonna be a standup battle.

This isn't a pushover matchup, but the UFC surely wants Artem in there. Prepared to eat my words, but I put a couple units at -450 just because it feels like easy money.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'm locked in.

No real action for me. Just a small PrizePicks parlay to keep me interested in the fights.

 

[PuertoRican]

Both Gauci and Drilich are not UFC ready.

Felt like I just watched 15 minutes of light sparring.

 

[rev0lver]

Tough result, not sure about it. Gauci fought nervous as hell for half the fight. Never seen a guy step in with a tight guard up so much.

 

[PuertoRican]

Dulatov will have issues against people who he can't finish early, and wrestlers/grapplers.

Nice KO, though.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Chasen Blair rd 1/2 +750
$50

He is a good athlete and finisher. Extremely fast starter in a late replacement spot. Feels all his win equity is in the first 2 rounds so with ML +265 I think this is clear value.

 

[PuertoRican]

Nice win by Pinto.

Looks way too small for heavyweight, though. Easily a 205er, maybe even a 185er.

 

[PuertoRican]

I can't wait for Steele to fight in the UFC. He's so overrated and his odds will be super juiced.