Contender Series - Week 10

[Thesnake101]

On phone so can't embed images, most of the lines released so far are pretty close though, which is a shock since this season has featured so many wide lines and big upsets.

Right now Ado is a dog, Martinez opened at evens but got bet down to favorite and Cormier's guy, Nick is at evens with short-notice replacement Luis Gurule.

I like Martinez and Nick here, have some action on Ado just due to his odds.

 

[Xuh]

On phone so can't embed images, most of the lines released so far are pretty close though, which is a shock since this season has featured so many wide lines and big upsets.

Right now Ado is a dog, Martinez opened at evens but got bet down to favorite and Cormier's guy, Nick is at evens with short-notice replacement Luis Gurule.

I like Martinez and Nick here, have some action on Ado just due to his odds.

I've seen a lot of people talking up Martinez but I don't really understand it, she's been beating up waitresses and domestic cleaners in the Argentine regionals, which doesn't really give a lot to go on in assessing her level. Only one of her opponents has a winning record (Juarez) but she doesn't look any good either. Martinez seems to be a TKD fighter who throws a lot of flashy kicks, the kind you learn the hard way not to do once you step up in competition in North America. Her grappling seems concerning (as you might expect from a regional WMMA striker) - in the Juarez fight she tried a TD but ended up pulling mount on herself, and later almost got armbarred; in her ammy loss (2 years ago) she was easily armbarred by a scrub. She's only just turned 20 which is great for 'future potential' but not so great for future experience in the here-and-now against her first real live opponent.

Hernandez OTOH has a solid boxing base (trained with Mexican Olympic team) and seems to have made good progress at MMA training at a top gym (MMA Lab). She beat the shit out of Bryan Camozzi's wife (that practically counts as a win over a UFC vet right? ) and her last fight a good test against Jorand who is another young fighter who moved to the US to improve at MMA recently and has some notable kickboxing titles (probably will be a UFC cantender in a few years herself). Jorand is probably better than Martinez right now IMO but Hernandez was able to hang on the feet while ultimately winning with top control time (one round off a decent double leg, the other off a knockdown). She also showed classic Messican toughness (ate a few hard shots and never flinched). The only big issue I see is Hernandez might not be hard to take down herself. To me Hernandez looks like a good underdog bet as the fighter with better experience, noticably bigger, likely has a more well rounded skillset, training at a top 'murican gym vs the untested Argie cancrusher stepping out of her tiny pool for the first time.

 

[JBJisGOAT14]

On Hernandez and Ado. Passed on Gurule as I was not impressed with DCs guy last outing on contender but don’t know enough of his opponent to bet him.

 

[Thesnake101]

Bunch of money came in on Micallef and Nick after weigh ins.

 

[rev0lver]

Didn't look at the odds till after tape, I'm a little surprised.

I think Micallef looks super sloppy overall. I'm not overly impressed by Ado, but I think he's a lot more fundamentally sound. Micallef gets himself in trouble all the time.

DelValle-Monteiro is an interesting fight. I think DelValle looks solid, but Monteiro is super experienced and skilled all-around. Good jits, good striking, and I think this could be an experience diff. I wouldn't be shocked to see DelValle win, and Monteiro's hittable if nothing else, but small favorite is a good line.

I like Gurule a lot here. Good wrestling base, decent all-around, striking's imperfect but carries some power and can take one to give one. Also trains with Brandon Royval. Piccininni was super disappointing on his DWCS fight, which imo he lost. If Gurule's able to stop the takedowns better than Duffy, which I think he should be able to do, I see him taking it.

Very underwhelmed by Klein. He has wrestling chops, but I saw him get broken down by an average fighter only 2 years ago. Souza is a fantastic kickboxer who has some good BJJ to back it up. I'll take him as a moderate favorite all day.

 

[Thesnake101]

I like Gurule a lot here. Good wrestling base, decent all-around, striking's imperfect but carries some power and can take one to eat one. Also trains with Brandon Royval. Piccininni was super disappointing on his DWCS fight, which imo he lost. If Gurule's able to stop the takedowns better than Duffy, which I think he should be able to do, I see him taking it.

One thing to keep in mind is that Nick fought Duffy on short-notice, and Jack is a TAM product. I think that's a big part of why he looked so bad compared to how he feasted in Fury, though the same could be said for Gurule. This could've easily been a 5 rounder under the Fury banner.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

One thing to keep in mind is that Nick fought Duffy on short-notice, and Jack is a TAM product. I think that's a big part of why he looked so bad compared to how he feasted in Fury, though the same could be said for Gurule. This could've easily been a 5 rounder under the Fury banner.

Piccinini fought a much lower level of competition than Gurule in Fury imo.

 

[Thesnake101]

Piccinini fought a much lower level of competition than Gurule in Fury imo.

He finished them accordingly though. It's also hard to gauge since Fury has many, many guys who are pretty terrible and have misleading records. Imo Nick would've been done with Silva much faster than Gurule did.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Gurule 2.05
Martinez 1.8

Let's see.

 

[rev0lver]

One thing to keep in mind is that Nick fought Duffy on short-notice, and Jack is a TAM product. I think that's a big part of why he looked so bad compared to how he feasted in Fury, though the same could be said for Gurule. This could've easily been a 5 rounder under the Fury banner.

I'm still pretty skeptical of things like that until it's proven. I don't take anything away from Nick's wrestling cred, but wrestling in MMA is a different beast, and it wasn't a good look against the most competent guy he's fought. I don't exactly think he's Bo Nickal level, and he could potentially be more like a Phil Hawes. Gurule's likely to have the most competent wrestling of anyone he's fought.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Nick come out, dominate, get an arm triangle or something like that. I just have a lot of skepticism that he's ready for this level.

 

[rev0lver]

I've seen a lot of people talking up Martinez but I don't really understand it, she's been beating up waitresses and domestic cleaners in the Argentine regionals, which doesn't really give a lot to go on in assessing her level. Only one of her opponents has a winning record (Juarez) but she doesn't look any good either. Martinez seems to be a TKD fighter who throws a lot of flashy kicks, the kind you learn the hard way not to do once you step up in competition in North America. Her grappling seems concerning (as you might expect from a regional WMMA striker) - in the Juarez fight she tried a TD but ended up pulling mount on herself, and later almost got armbarred; in her ammy loss (2 years ago) she was easily armbarred by a scrub. She's only just turned 20 which is great for 'future potential' but not so great for future experience in the here-and-now against her first real live opponent.

Hernandez OTOH has a solid boxing base (trained with Mexican Olympic team) and seems to have made good progress at MMA training at a top gym (MMA Lab). She beat the shit out of Bryan Camozzi's wife (that practically counts as a win over a UFC vet right? ) and her last fight a good test against Jorand who is another young fighter who moved to the US to improve at MMA recently and has some notable kickboxing titles (probably will be a UFC cantender in a few years herself). Jorand is probably better than Martinez right now IMO but Hernandez was able to hang on the feet while ultimately winning with top control time (one round off a decent double leg, the other off a knockdown). She also showed classic Messican toughness (ate a few hard shots and never flinched). The only big issue I see is Hernandez might not be hard to take down herself. To me Hernandez looks like a good underdog bet as the fighter with better experience, noticably bigger, likely has a more well rounded skillset, training at a top 'murican gym vs the untested Argie cancrusher stepping out of her tiny pool for the first time.

I think you've convinced me. I'm just worried about another Yuneisy Duben situation, SA regional fighter beating up total cans and destroyed an American prospect anyway. But stylistically, I get it here. TKD is not reliable in higher-level MMA if you don't have enough grappling and boxing to back it up.

I also think "Dora the Destroyer" is a way cooler nickname than "The Ninja Ferret"

 

[ExitLUPin]

Micallef finish +175 $150
Micallef sub +400 $50

Operation fade the Canadian MMA fighter commence. Think he washes him on the mat.

 

[Wood530]

Bunch of money came in on Micallef and Nick after weigh ins.

Bad weight cut?

 

[ExitLUPin]

Micallef finish +175 $150
Micallef sub +400 $50

Operation fade the Canadian MMA fighter commence. Think he washes him on the mat.

Ninja walked out and they had a different flag LMAO. Niger flag hahahahahaha. Wanted to avoid being Canadian. NUH UH buddeh pal.

$262.50
$200

Easy peasy. Was a wash on the mat like I said. Didn't put more on sub since one of those TKO GNP finishes would have been an annoying loss. Didn't play ML because I was 100% convinced it would be a finish.

 

[PuertoRican]

That was a nice grappling match and finish by Jonathan Micallef.

 

[ExitLUPin]

If you aren't fading the Canadians in 2024 I don't know what you're doing. It's the biggest falloff of a nation I've ever seen in MMA. From the glory days they had of GSP and Rory and a lot of solid other fighters to what they have now. Since OAM retired they really just don't have anything. Mike Malott was one of their highest rated prospects

There was that Canadian chick on DWCS weeks back that was -2000 or some shit and got KOd 1st round. Looked like she never struck a day in her life. It's insane. Money train.

 

[svmr_db]

Martinez +280 before round 2 started, seems wide given the grappling success she had.

 

[PuertoRican]

Nice performance by Julieta Martinez.

I thought it was a clear 2-1 for Martinez at worst. I was thinking she might've gotten R1 depending on the judges, but R2 and R3 were clear for Martinez, imo.

 

[King-Ryan]

Blatant corruption and riging with the Matrinez DEC, did she even land a single strike in the third round?

Honestly we need to leave this sport the corruption is so obvious it has become every other fight now.

 

[Xuh]

I think you've convinced me. I'm just worried about another Yuneisy Duben situation, SA regional fighter beating up total cans and destroyed an American prospect anyway. But stylistically, I get it here. TKD is not reliable in higher-level MMA if you don't have enough grappling and boxing to back it up.

I also think "Dora the Destroyer" is a way cooler nickname than "The Ninja Ferret"

an annoyingly close L (I think she seemed to gas a bit more than expected and 'possibly questionable TDD' turned out to be very questionable)

agreed on the nickname though