Elections Clinton vs. Trump Polls thread, v2

[Space]

Uh oh guys, why is Hillary dropping in the polls? What's the margin of error here, 4 points?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

If you have a source for this, I'd be interested in reading it.

Well the hiring of Bannon from Breitbart means the Trump campaign is paying close attention to the so-called alt-right media, of which people like Milo and Cernovich belong. Both the latter have tried to get Trump's ear and are Rooshv posters. Don't be surprised if Milo speaks before a Trump rally soon. What's more, it seems that the Trump campaign is paying attention to pro-Trump forums, and Twitter accounts (including Trump himself retweeting from them). There's about two degrees of separation in all this, so the odds are high that someone like Jared Kushner sits around all day reading those sites for ideas.

 

[m52nickerson]

Uh oh guys, why is Hillary dropping in the polls? What's the margin of error here, 4 points?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Simply because the focus as of late sifted to her issues and polls fluctuate. Also the average is 5.8 not 4.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

 

[Space]

Simply because the focus as of late sifted to her issues and polls fluctuate. Also the average is 5.8 not 4.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Exactly, it's a close race, unlike what has been portrayed here for the past week.

 

[m52nickerson]

Exactly, it's a close race, unlike what has been portrayed here for the past week.

Not really. That is just the national average. State polls still has Clinton way ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

[Space]

Not really. That is just the national average. State polls still has Clinton way ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

No doubt the polls are never fudged.

 

[Fawlty]

Uh oh guys, why is Hillary dropping in the polls? What's the margin of error here, 4 points?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

This isn't a surprise. I told you guys that the polls would settle back after Hillary's convention bump. It actually exceeded my expectations by like 3 points. The bump was very big and the settling after the bump is looking small. Barring major developments, she should level out around +5 over the next two weeks. Trump could always help her out by running his gup mine, and Hillary could always get hack attacked, which would change things.

 

[Deleted member 429137]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/donald-trump-white-men.html?rref=politics

Wow. Now trump is losing the white male vote.

All along, one of the central questions of the election has been whether there are enough white men who will turn out to vote to lift Mr. Trump to victory. And there may be enough, demographers and pollsters said. But for now it appears that after a ceaseless stream of provocations, insults and reckless remarks, Mr. Trump has damaged himself significantly with the one demographic that stands as a bulwark to a Clinton presidency.

“If you set out to design a strategy to produce the lowest popular vote possible in the new American electorate of 2016, you would be hard-pressed to do a better job than Donald Trump has,” said Whit Ayres, a pollster who has advised Republican presidential and Senate candidates for more than 25 years. “This is an electoral disaster waiting to happen.”

Interviews with voters found that Mr. Trump’s increasingly outlandish behavior was rubbing many in his key voting bloc the wrong way. “I liked Trump until he opened his mouth,” said Phil Kinney, a retired middle school administrator and a Republican from Bethlehem, Pa. The recent string of attacks Mr. Trump has unleashed, particularly his criticism of the family of a Muslim soldier killed in Iraq, left Mr. Kinney disappointed. Faced with the choice of voting for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Kinney said he may just stay home.

Two national polls conducted this month have Mrs. Clinton catching up to Mr. Trump among men over all. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Mrs. Clinton with 43 percent support among men to his 42 percent. A Bloomberg Politics survey put Mr. Trump with a low-single-digit lead among men, according to the pollster who conducted the survey, Ann Selzer.

Mr. Trump’s troubles with white men do not end there. The data reveal a huge gap in those who have a college education and those who do not. As Mr. Trump saw in the Republican primaries, he is most vulnerable with white men who have a college education or higher. Mr. Romney won that group, which votes at a higher rate than those without college degrees, by 21 points. Recent national polls have put Mr. Trump’s support with them far lower.

Even under the rosiest projections of white turnout, Mr. Trump would still lose the popular vote if his poll numbers among whites do not improve considerably.

 

[m52nickerson]

No doubt the polls are never fudged.

Yes, now find one in recent history...I will wait.

 

[Sycho Sid]

Yes, now find one in recent history...I will wait.

Hey man. Are you trying to say that polling has improved in the last 40 years? I call bullshit!

 

[Space]

Hey man. Are you trying to say that polling has improved in the last 40 years? I call bullshit!

Push polling is certainly more clever now.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Who gives a rip about national polls, anyway?

 

[7437]

Who gives a rip about national polls, anyway?

Al Gore

 

[Joe]

Who gives a rip about national polls, anyway?

anyone running for president. me trump cares. if they are going his way he will brag about them. when the election gets closer he will brag that the polls are getting closer. when they are not close they dont mean shit. happens every election.

 

[BoxingFan123]

Yes, now find one in recent history...I will wait.

Bernie in Michigan???

 

[m52nickerson]

Bernie in Michigan???

That was a primary poll, not a general election poll. You also had a lot less polls taken, and over shorter a shorter period of time.

 

[liljoe]

FYI, the polls have been relatively accurate for the last 6 cycles. Obama, Obama, Bush, Bush, Clinton, Clinton have all predicted the correct winner. They are off on the margin though. There is about a 3-4 point difference with the actual final result.

I would consider it a toss-up if the margin for H vs T is less than 3 points in the final poll average.

 

[Trotsky]

A lot can change. Trump still has a viable shot.

 

[UpaLoompa]

Push polling is certainly more clever now.

Except you aren't supporting that view. What you're doing is looking at polling from reputable organizations and accusing them of being biased and dishonest. You're doing exactly what was done in 2008 and even more egregiously in 2012. It is certainly possible that there is the "monster block" out there but there's no evidence for it from the primary or previous elections. You're making yourself look as silly as Rove did in 2012 when he had his tantrum in the Fox News studios.

 

[carlos cadona]

A reddit user created a badly faked poll and Trump supporters still spammed it as proof of him winning. Some are still posting it even after he came out and admitted what he did.
https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughTrum...posted_an_obviously_fake_poll_on_rthe_donald/

 

[Space]

Except you aren't supporting that view. What you're doing is looking at polling from reputable organizations and accusing them of being biased and dishonest. You're doing exactly what was done in 2008 and even more egregiously in 2012. It is certainly possible that there is the "monster block" out there but there's no evidence for it from the primary or previous elections. You're making yourself look as silly as Rove did in 2012 when he had his tantrum in the Fox News studios.

No evidence? I'm pretty sure Trump killed it in the primaries, even when polling behind other Republicans.