Elections Clinton vs Trump Polls thread (Clinton's Bounce Larger than Trump's)

[BOWHUNTER]

CHOOOOOOO CHOOOOOO Trump all day niqqa

 

[ShadowRun]

so, american buddies, does trump have a chance in this? i only saw a couple of polls and clinton is waaay ahead.

about the same way he had a chance to become the GOP front runner I would say.

 

[carlos cadona]

New poll. HRC +5.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...k-poll-voters-alarmed-trump-clinton/86632526/

 

[Jack V Savage]

so, american buddies, does trump have a chance in this? i only saw a couple of polls and clinton is waaay ahead.

Generally, I think betting odds and 538 are the best easily available guides, and they both have him with about a 20% chance at this time.

 

[el viejito]

This election is going to be a landslide win for Hillary. From his grave Walter Mondale will be saying "Damn Trump, you got smoked." Ultimately I can see Clinton winning every state at the rate Trump is embarrassing himself. Even those who might dislike her for some reason should at least appreciate all she has done for women with this victory

 

[UpaLoompa]

Generally, I think betting odds and 538 are the best easily available guides, and they both have him with about a 20% chance at this time.

It's interesting, every presidential election the discussion of the validity of polls comes up and the answer is always the same: They're pretty good. Despite this, inane conspiracy theories get spun and poor reasoning gets employed to validate someone's particular desires. Here's it's pretty clear: Trump only has an outside chance and Clinton is the favorite.

 

[carlos cadona]

The gap between Rasmussen and other polls is getting wider. Rasmussen has Trump at +2 while reuters and pew have Clinton at +11 and +9.
http://www.people-press.org/files/2016/07/07-07-16-Voter-attitudes-topline-for-release.pdf
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15725

 

[carlos cadona]

Here's some overall stats about the state of the election and a poll showing Clinton with a 4 point lead in Nevada.
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/

 

[VivaRevolution]

House effects /= "manipulation." He actually explained it.

And that was what I was initially commenting on. People see normal stuff they don't understand, and immediately jump to the idea that there is some kind of conspiracy behind the scenes. It's a very natural, very human reaction, but it's one that education should fix.

What education, because I think you mean conditioning.

It isn't that they don't understand it, it is that their is a lack of information to make an informed decision. You assume all is well and good in the world, while others assume the Illuminate, Free Masons, and aliens control the world.

The truth is somewhere in between.

 

[Jack V Savage]

What education, because I think you mean conditioning.

I mean education. We know a lot of flaws that our brains have, and we've developed the ability to think in ways that get around that, but it doesn't come naturally.

It isn't that they don't understand it, it is that their is a lack of information to make an informed decision. You assume all is well and good in the world, while others assume the Illuminate, Free Masons, and aliens control the world.

The truth is somewhere in between.

Well, the truth is in between your false characterization of my beliefs and the nutter beliefs.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Edit

 

[Octavian]

The gap between Rasmussen and other polls is getting wider. Rasmussen has Trump at +2 while reuters and pew have Clinton at +11 and +9.
http://www.people-press.org/files/2016/07/07-07-16-Voter-attitudes-topline-for-release.pdf
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15725

House effect for Rasmussen is something on the order of 5-7 ... Don't quote that but Ras always does this and then a few weeks before the election dials it in a bit so as not to get a terrible grade.

 

[Octavian]

Here's some overall stats about the state of the election and a poll showing Clinton with a 4 point lead in Nevada.
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/

Nevada is notoriously hard to poll for a few reasons and Dems have been under represented in them for the last handful of years.

 

[carlos cadona]

House effect for Rasmussen is something on the order of 5-7 ... Don't quote that but Ras always does this and then a few weeks before the election dials it in a bit so as not to get a terrible grade.

Rasmussen generally leans right by a pretty heavy margin, a lot of commentators really fucked themselves over by using their polls during the last election, I think it was Glen Beck that predicted a 320 delegate landslide by Romney by using their polls.

 

[Fawlty]

Should be a new round of polls soon. I'm interested to see what effect the FBI investigation is having. I mean, that kinda goes without saying. But still.

 

[THE BOSS]

I think a lot of Trump fans are lying low. Once they get to the ballot box, they will pan the area and check Trump.

 

[AgonyandIrony]

I think a lot of Trump fans are lying low. Once they get to the ballot box, they will pan the area and check Trump.

Same with Hillary voters. A lot of Bernie supporters going to sadly be voting for Hillary.

 

[in the]

I love it, CNN just ran a breaking news story

The headline reads: Clinton: Trump not qualified to be president

Lol, wtf?

It's the Clinton News Network.

 

[Trotsky]

The third party candidates are the catalysts in this election. If it was Clinton and Trump head-to-head with no where else to put a vote, Clinton would wipe the floor with him.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

It's the Clinton News Network.

so subtle