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And here I thought I’m not going to get a thorough analysis this time!Greetings Mr. @Spath, we meet again before a massive event to kick-off the festivities with some pre-fight analytical discourse - one of my favorite things to do!
As you noted both are exceptionally accomplished wrestlers, but a lot has changed with Usman that makes us need to analyze his wrestling specifically.
It would seem in his last fights his wrestling has degraded considerably; now I don't want to fully discredit Leon, his TDD and ability to scramble and get-up have improved immensely.
Usman/Edwards 1 - Usman goes 6/13 (in a 15 minute fight!)
Usman/Edwards 2 - Usman goes 5/12 (in a 25 minute fight)
Usman/Edwards 3 - Usman goes 4/15 (in a 25 minute fight)
Each time less takedowns, each time less control and damage from that control. Leon is getting better, but Usman is also getting worse, which is why I think we are seeing that statistical gap increase - and more important just from using our eyes Usman looks slower, less confident, and just doesn't have any type of explosive shot any more really. His takedowns against Leon were against the cage off of single leg transitions, he isn't just rag-dolling dudes any longer and they are doing a far better job staying outside of his clinch.
I personally feel Usman/Covingnton 1 was a kickboxing fight because both guys decided to waste no energy stalling out in the wrestling and decided to just bang. They literally made no adjustments whatsoever from a tactical MMA fighting stand-point, it was just endlessly mixing up their entries and combinations (that aren't even that deep) and seeing who could sponge more damage.
Chimaev vs. Burns was a stand-up fight for very different reasons - Chimaev was able to get Burns down, repeatedly, he was 2/3 on takedowns. His problems as that Burns refused to concede bottom position and immediately went to foot on hips/chest kick-offs to scramble and get-up. Chimaev has a tremendous grappling edge over most guys but with Burns he might have worse tactical positional grappling and because he doesn't focus on control in brawls it allowed for scrambles. Chimaev at his core wants to pressure guys and get them to try and plant with power to back him off, which will give him his takedown entry that he is looking for.
The Usman/Burns comparison is an odd one, because Usman has far better TDD than Burns but far worse defensively grappling (Leon immediately mounted and took his back, was threatening with choke and Usman looked lost). If Chimaev can get him down then I think Usman is in a world of shit - his defensive reactions to being on bottom are still that of a wrestler who never trains that position because he never plans to be there (and so far has been able to avoid it 99% of the time). But it does forebode poorly that he still reacts so bad if someone gets him down, he is just open to get mounted or back-taken and someone like Chimaev is going to be far more dangerous than Leon (who is more of a control grappler and less of a submission hunter or GnP artist).
I think Khamzat should certainly push the wrestling route early and often - don't let Usman get confident sitting at range and trying to go jab for jab with him, just feint and then shoot on the legs, force defensive reactions and get Usman on the back-foot. The guy going forward will be the guy winning I believe, neither are back-foot fighters or natural counter-strikers, they both are far better pressuring guys against the cage and then looking to unload straight punches.
Usman's best bet is just trying to slow the fight down and keeping things simple, straight punches from edge of boxing range, be methodical with the jab and body attacks (Chimaev biggest weakness is his striking defense, relies a lot on chin and aggression to scare guys off but he has chin up on center line without head movement when throwing power shots frequently), and ultimately avoid the firefight. Usman has pretty good defense in a lot of positions, especially when he doesn't have to defend kicks (those seem to be a big weakness of his).
At his age, moving up to MW, with declining knees, I think if he gets sucked into a fast-paced wrestling attack early it's going to sap his gas tank and make him super-defensive throughout the fight. If Usman is forced to fight off the back foot he won't be able to throw lots of power shots and will get pushed into the cage, which is the last place you want to be against Chimaev.
Now in Usman's favor Khamzat is not a refined technical kickboxer like Leon - he doesn't fight out of southpaw, he doesn't throw incredibly quick tough to read head/body/leg kicks off feints and combination set-ups. He really just needs to worry about the power straight right mostly, which is powerful and fast and dangerous but doesn't come from hat many set-ups or combinations.
Standing I'd say Usman has the more technical game but he doesn't have the speed or power that he used to and Khamzat is naturally bigger and a naturally harder puncher (outside of the Masvidal KO when has Usman ever one punched someone? He hit Colby with like 200+ shots each fight and could only flash knock him down - that's not to say he doesn't hit hard, but it's more cumulative and hard shots rather than "heavy hands" or shots that come so fast and from crazy angles you don't see them coming.
I think the deciding factor for me is the combination of everything - age, career trajectories, style match-up (wrestler against wrestler). In those situations you want the younger, bigger, hungrier guy with more to prove and having size, reach, and punching power seems to really tip the edges to him overall i.e.
SIZE - Khamzat (clear)
SPEED - Khamzat (clear)
STRENGTH - Khamzat (slight)
POWER - Khamzat (clear)
STRIKING OFFENSE - Usman (slight)
STRIKING DEFENSE - Usman (clear)
CLINCH OFFENSE - Even
CLINCH DEFENSE - Usman (slight)
WRESTLING OFFENSE - Khamzat (clear)
WRESTLING DEFENSE - Even
GRAPPLING OFFENSE - Khamzat (clear)
GRAPPLING DEFENSE - Khamzat (clear)
I think Khamzat is going to likely steamroll him early if his confidence isn't there, that's Khamzat at his best and most effective - immediately in your face, feinting and mixing up straight punches and level changes to draw defensive reactions and get his grappling game going immediately.
If he plays a patient boxer/puncher game trying to stalk Usman and go punch for punch with him he could be in for a shock as Usman has a great jab and some nuanced defense, could frustrated him and then draw him into a brawl where Chimaev can get wild and sloppy, give a lot of openings to get hit clean with power if that's the case.
But I think Usman just doesn't have the athleticism or confidence in his game any longer to just take and hold the center and back Chimaev off, he'll really need to fight off the back foot a lot and be circling and using lateral movement to avoid the cage. When have we seen Usman effectively fight off the back foot? He's always had the ability to dictate the fight position because of his wrestling edge, but if that's gone he might find himself constantly pushed back when Chimaev looks to pressure.
I'll take Chimaev by submission, I just feel Usman has heavily declined and his submission game is suspect to the point where if he gets taken down with time to spare I don't see how he avoids ending up in an arm-triangle/d'arce/RNC.
Would love to get proven wrong tho!
<[analyzed}>
Exquisite breakdown as always. I think looking at each fighters career trajectories is a very important point. Usman’s ability to wrestle is diminished very clearly. Even if it’s a bad comparison (and it kind of is) I think we could compare him to Yoel Romero of late, who could wrestle anyone in the world but decided to use his wrestling to keep fights standing up and throw hands.
Burns is a very, very different beast to grapple than Usman, you’re right. When… If you get Usman down, you have the upper hand, for sure. He’s not comfortable off his back and he pretty much offers no offense when on his back. It’s a totally different story with Burns, so yeah.
I think Chimaev goes the wrestling route as well. I think he prepared to wrestle Costa and I think he’ll want to show that he can outwrestle people who outwrestle(d) everyone else (Usman). That’s why I wrote that IF Usman is able to defend a couple of takedowns it could change the course of the fight.
Also I think that slowing down the fight should be a part of Usman’s plan. It would benefit him greatly as Khamzat would benefit from the chaos and fast paced action.
Thanks once again, champ! Appreciate it. I’m looking forward to the fights! Lets get this weekends fights out of the way first.. War Barboza!
edit. I think I kinda lost the plot with the Yoel comparison. Usman has used his wrestling offensively a ton, even if it’s not to get the takedown but press his opponents against the cage and grind on them. BUT! In this fight Usman could (should?) go the Yoel route and force a stand up fight. That’s what I meant!
It simply was not.
