I was being hyperbolic, you're right. I considered going back and rewording that but decided "fuck it" the hyperbole gets people responding more.
Fair enough. I typically see your posts as being objective with very little hyperbole.
A striker forced to grapple gasses prematurely, and vice versa. We all know this. Charles is comfortable everywhere. His cardio will get drained by energy output only.
On the other hand. Islam has a very structured plan and rarely deviates from it. The threat of the td is enough to keep some fighters from advancing at him. That won't be the case here. That itself may make Islam a bit uncomfortable.
Only a couple times have we seen someone wrestle at Islam, that also may happen here. Islam does his best td work at the fence, and he is damn good at it. Often he is able to pressure his opponent backwards to the cage. I do not think the td threat and his striking is enough to back Ollie up to the fence though. Again, uncomfortable.
As you mentioned, guillotine awareness has likely been a focus for Mak this camp. Keeping his neck safe probably includes not shooting at the legs in open space. But if he can't back Charles up, that's what he has to do. Uncomfortable.
So from the start of the fight I think Mak will be forced to choose between backing up, shooting out in the middle, or banging it out on the feet. I really don't believe Islam will be comfortable with any of those options. So his cardio will be taxed by being uncomfortable or unfamiliar with some situations in the fight, right from the start.
When he is in top position, most of Islams opponents are just looking to survive, 100% focused on defense. That won't be the case here, at least for a couple rounds. Charles will absolutely be threatening offense from the bottom. Again, that might not be so comfortable for Islam.
Team Ollie recently said Islam wont be able to take down Charles. On it's face that seems silly since he doesn't typically defend TD's much since he is comfortable on his back. He did resist some TD's against Lentz though, long before Alireza even got there. His overall wrestling may be vastly under rated and flying under the radar at this point. If Islam has to wrestle defensively, or work harder than anticipated for TD's, bad for him again.
I don't see the fight starting the 4th. CO fights in a manner that a winner is determined inside the time limit 90% of the time. All offense, all the time, any position, until he gasses or gets outgunned. Charles being able to put Islam in uncomfortable and unfamiliar positions I believe will drain Islam at a little faster rate.
I am certainly not blind to the possibility of Charles gassing first though.