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The latest jobs report is great news for Canada.
"The Canadian economy gained 90,000 jobs in April, much higher than the average of 20,000 jobs many economists were predicting for the latest Labour Force Survey numbers from Statistics Canada.
The federal agency pinned the increases in employment on part-time work, with more than 50,000 more of those types of positions. Statistics Canada also pointed out that private sector employment went up in April after "four months of little change."
There were more jobs in the professional, scientific and technical services industries. As well, employment for those aged 15 to 24 went up by 40,000 in April, the first monthly increase for that demographic since December 2022."
"...The employment rate, or the percentage of the population that is employed, was also steady at 61.4 per cent, which StatsCan pointed out comes after six consecutive months of drops. That rate was also nearly one per cent lower in April 2024 than the year before, as population growth in Canada was higher than employment growth."
"...These numbers come after a loss of 2,200 jobs in March, with that month's unemployment rate showing the largest increase since summer 2022.
The Bank of Canada will be taking this data into account as it determines whether it will change interest rates in a decision next month.
Many economists widely expect Canada's central bank to lower its trend-setting policy rate sometime this summer, though April's consumer price index data measuring inflation will heavily influence that decision."
They admit there are some details that detract from the great news, e.g. in New Brunswick the unemployment rate remained unchanged as full time job gains were offset by part time job reductions. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in PEI and Nova Scotia fell by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged, showing job growth is matched by population growth.
So, overall it's great news and a hopeful sign our economic slump might finally end.
I'm no economist, but if this continues i think it would signal an end to the near zero GDP growth lately. The Bank of Canada needs to reduce the prime rate sooner rather than later, IMHO and then things would improve even further and more rapidly--although I understand one could argue it might trigger further inflation; again I'm not an expert so I won't argue that's untrue. Still, I suspect it would do more good than harm.
Now, it's hard to imagine anyone would suggest the Canadian economy is outperforming that of the US right now. Let's hear from the "our economy is shit and everyone is suffering" people to try and explain that apparent contradiction.
UPDATE:
Canada's Economy is Outperforming Expectations
The Canadian economy is doing better than expected. In the face of rapid and substantial increases in interest rates to tame inflation, growth has slowed but outperformed expectations in 2023. Canada avoided the recession expected by many forecasters (Chart 3), with real GDP rising by 1.1 per cent in 2023, over three times higher than what was forecasted in Budget 2023 (0.3 per cent).
Canada's economy is growing. Despite some temporary factors such as the Quebec public sector strikes late in 2023, real GDP rose by 1 per cent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, driven by strong global demand for Canadian exports, as well as resilient demand from households for goods and services. Economic indicators are also encouraging so far in 2024. With the economy benefiting from a boost from the unwinding of temporary factors, this translated into strong real GDP gains in January (7.4 per cent annualized) and preliminary February (4.9 per cent annualized). This suggests that growth in the first quarter of 2024 is on track for around 3.5 per cent annualized. In recent months, household and small business sentiment has also been more positive.
Canada's strong economic fundamentals have helped the economy weather the impacts of higher interest rates. These strong fundamentals include solid labour markets driving ongoing gains in workers' income, as well as solid household and business balance sheets.
The surprising strength of the U.S. economy has also been a factor supporting Canada's better-than-expected performance (Chart 4). Growth in the U.S. has far outpaced expectations, driving solid external demand for Canadian goods and services, as well as foreign direct investment in Canada, which provided a sizeable boost to the Canadian economy throughout the past year."
"The Canadian economy gained 90,000 jobs in April, much higher than the average of 20,000 jobs many economists were predicting for the latest Labour Force Survey numbers from Statistics Canada.
The federal agency pinned the increases in employment on part-time work, with more than 50,000 more of those types of positions. Statistics Canada also pointed out that private sector employment went up in April after "four months of little change."
There were more jobs in the professional, scientific and technical services industries. As well, employment for those aged 15 to 24 went up by 40,000 in April, the first monthly increase for that demographic since December 2022."
"...The employment rate, or the percentage of the population that is employed, was also steady at 61.4 per cent, which StatsCan pointed out comes after six consecutive months of drops. That rate was also nearly one per cent lower in April 2024 than the year before, as population growth in Canada was higher than employment growth."
"...These numbers come after a loss of 2,200 jobs in March, with that month's unemployment rate showing the largest increase since summer 2022.
The Bank of Canada will be taking this data into account as it determines whether it will change interest rates in a decision next month.
Many economists widely expect Canada's central bank to lower its trend-setting policy rate sometime this summer, though April's consumer price index data measuring inflation will heavily influence that decision."
They admit there are some details that detract from the great news, e.g. in New Brunswick the unemployment rate remained unchanged as full time job gains were offset by part time job reductions. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in PEI and Nova Scotia fell by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged, showing job growth is matched by population growth.
So, overall it's great news and a hopeful sign our economic slump might finally end.
I'm no economist, but if this continues i think it would signal an end to the near zero GDP growth lately. The Bank of Canada needs to reduce the prime rate sooner rather than later, IMHO and then things would improve even further and more rapidly--although I understand one could argue it might trigger further inflation; again I'm not an expert so I won't argue that's untrue. Still, I suspect it would do more good than harm.
Now, it's hard to imagine anyone would suggest the Canadian economy is outperforming that of the US right now. Let's hear from the "our economy is shit and everyone is suffering" people to try and explain that apparent contradiction.
UPDATE:
Economic and Fiscal Overview | Budget 2024
This section of Budget 2024 gives an overview of the economic and fiscal outlook of Canada, including current challenges and opportunities.
budget.canada.ca
Canada's Economy is Outperforming Expectations
The Canadian economy is doing better than expected. In the face of rapid and substantial increases in interest rates to tame inflation, growth has slowed but outperformed expectations in 2023. Canada avoided the recession expected by many forecasters (Chart 3), with real GDP rising by 1.1 per cent in 2023, over three times higher than what was forecasted in Budget 2023 (0.3 per cent).
Canada's economy is growing. Despite some temporary factors such as the Quebec public sector strikes late in 2023, real GDP rose by 1 per cent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, driven by strong global demand for Canadian exports, as well as resilient demand from households for goods and services. Economic indicators are also encouraging so far in 2024. With the economy benefiting from a boost from the unwinding of temporary factors, this translated into strong real GDP gains in January (7.4 per cent annualized) and preliminary February (4.9 per cent annualized). This suggests that growth in the first quarter of 2024 is on track for around 3.5 per cent annualized. In recent months, household and small business sentiment has also been more positive.
Canada's strong economic fundamentals have helped the economy weather the impacts of higher interest rates. These strong fundamentals include solid labour markets driving ongoing gains in workers' income, as well as solid household and business balance sheets.
The surprising strength of the U.S. economy has also been a factor supporting Canada's better-than-expected performance (Chart 4). Growth in the U.S. has far outpaced expectations, driving solid external demand for Canadian goods and services, as well as foreign direct investment in Canada, which provided a sizeable boost to the Canadian economy throughout the past year."
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