International Canadian Election Results Start to Come Through: 'The 51st State' Edition

Tabarnakos said:
I think this election may mean the end of the NPD. They had a chance back in the Jack Layton days but now i think they are done for unless they can find some supreme charismatic leader and go into full Rocky Balboa mode which i don't think will ever happen.

Also Poilievre is one of the biggest flop in Canadian politics history. Rewind back a year and the guy was on a roll and on his way to crush the liberals. Forward to 2025 and he couldn't even keep his own seat lol. I'm not a conservative but i thought he did a good job as opposition leader. But he toned his usual self a lot for the campaign and he came out as weak. This wasn't the same guy who destroyed Trudeau publicly for most of 2023-2024. This is a major fail
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He was always a fake career politician who just wanted to find a way to win. He was good at chewing out Trudeau because he spent a decade as Harper's attack dog.
 
Limbo Pete said:
So they're economically conservative (totally?)... what makes them liberal? And what do you call a coalition that mixes liberal and conservative positions?
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Yeah. Reduce consumption taxes (eliminate positive cash transfer rebates for lower and middle class) reduce cap gains tax by 20% (benefits the 1%) no mention of raising income taxes on anyone above the top quntile. That was the same as the Conservative tax plan (slight differences in middle class tax cuts) in terms of what makes him liberal on economics, nothing on taxes.

He's pledged to cut annual operational spending increases from 9% annually to 2%.

Increased military spending.

All these are long standig conservative policy points.


im not going to use Trump....but this is akin to if Harris won and adopted Mitt's economic platform.

Carney didn't move the party to the center economically, his policy is a very close facsimile to the Conservative platform.
 
rikibobby said:
Trudeau is gone. There is only 1 person to thank for that. That is a massive win.
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100%. Carney has a brain and credentials. Trudeau is little more than a note-taking male bimbo.
 
Damien Karras said:
This Liberal government is centrist, right-of-center but by no means right wing. Their financial platform puts the country in hundreds of billions in the red over the next 4 years actually,
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Conservative platform is also right of center. If the center is the O on an integer line, Carneys economic platform took the Liberals from +5 to -1 or -2.
 
Natural Order said:
Easiest way to explain what happened is that the largest voting block (Liberal boomers in Ontario and Quebec) were themselves sick of Trudeau's pageantry and phony BS. To the point that it appeared a massive and easy sway to Conservatives was coming.

All it took for that same swath of people who jumped ship, was something resembling a normal human being at the helm. Carney comes across as very well spoken and likeable. Non theatrical. These are not generally people invested into proper research of their candidates anymore. That's all it took to bring them back.

Well played by the Liberals here end of the day. Right switch, right time.
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Yea I'm not the happiest the liberals won, but their play was impressive.
 
Tabarnakos said:
I think this election may mean the end of the NPD. They had a chance back in the Jack Layton days but now i think they are done for unless they can find some supreme charismatic leader and go into full Rocky Balboa mode which i don't think will ever happen.

Also Poilievre is one of the biggest flop in Canadian politics history. Rewind back a year and the guy was on a roll and on his way to crush the liberals. Forward to 2025 and he couldn't even keep his own seat lol. I'm not a conservative but i thought he did a good job as opposition leader. But he toned his usual self a lot for the campaign and he came out as weak. This wasn't the same guy who destroyed Trudeau publicly for most of 2023-2024. This is a major fail
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He lost his seat for a few reasons:
1 - the Liberals picked a strong candidate and started campaigning a year ago in his riding
2 - the longest ballot group targeted him
3 - the liberal’s recent campaign saw many heavy hitters campaign in Carlton for their candidate
4 - Poilievre supported the trucker convoy in Ottawa, where his riding is. I think this is the most important reason. Ottawa people love hostile Palestinian protests, not truckers.
 
Damien Karras said:
I'm more spittballing than anything. It's an entertaining theory, but still possible. But it's something me and my buddies on the Hill have been talking about.

I honestly don't see a way they can get out of this. Losing the funding from official party status + they probably took out a huge loan for this last election they'll need to pay back, and they barely finished paying off the loan from the 2021 election before this campaign kicked off. I don't see how they recover from this. If the Liberals can convince 3 of their members to switch over, then they're golden. Even if that doesn't work, I don't see a scenario in which those MP's decide to vote against the budget and call an election. The Libs will give them a few crumbs in bipartisan deals.
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They recovred in 97. Strategically trying to get 3 to cross the isle would probably force by elections and absolutely piss off those ridings. NDP are not going to get anything really, their debate time is reduced or even dismissed, they can't put forth a motion, they can be ignored on questioning periods.


Damien Karras said:
And I agree with your second point as to why I don't think that option is very plausible, but it's still there. It would set a big precedent, and not a very good deal politically speaking for the Libs unless they think it's way too important to secure a solid 4 years.
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No one has touched it in 40 years; it's a bastion of confederation. It's too big of a can of worms and would basically for the removal of the senate which Liberal stacked.


Damien Karras said:
They're not going to rely on the Bloc or the CPC to get their legislation passed. They are impossible to deal with...
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They now have to work with the Bloc and Conservatives. It won't be supply and confidence because if the Liberals did that with A nationalist separatist party they would be fucked in public opinion and the Conservatives are offical opposition. The Conservatives also now own all the major automotive districts both provincial and federal...so Liberals are going to have play nice to keep favor if Trade is a focus point.

It shouldn't be hard, Carney has mostly conservative economic views and his focus absolutely has to be on expanding productivity and GDP.
 
Natural Order said:
Easiest way to explain what happened is that the largest voting block (Liberal boomers in Ontario and Quebec) were themselves sick of Trudeau's pageantry and phony BS. To the point that it appeared a massive and easy sway to Conservatives was coming.

All it took for that same swath of people who jumped ship, was something resembling a normal human being at the helm. Carney comes across as very well spoken and likeable. Non theatrical. These are not generally people invested into proper research of their candidates anymore. That's all it took to bring them back.

Well played by the Liberals here end of the day. Right switch, right time.
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Yeah that tracks
 
JudoThrowFiasco said:
Yeah. Reduce consumption taxes (eliminate positive cash transfer rebates for lower and middle class) reduce cap gains tax by 20% (benefits the 1%) no mention of raising income taxes on anyone above the top quntile. That was the same as the Conservative tax plan (slight differences in middle class tax cuts) in terms of what makes him liberal on economics, nothing on taxes.

He's pledged to cut annual operational spending increases from 9% annually to 2%.

Increased military spending.

All these are long standig conservative policy points.


im not going to use Trump....but this is akin to if Harris won and adopted Mitt's economic platform.

Carney didn't move the party to the center economically, his policy is a very close facsimile to the Conservative platform.
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You keep sort of getting around the actual issue here... if the Conservatives won because the liberals are conservative, then why did the conservatives lose, and why did that one guy get evicted
 
End of the day, Pierre should have simply remained in some top level auditing position within the government. His entire rise to fame was holding Blackface McTeardrop to account through his multiple scandals. He was amazing at weeding out BS and waste.

While he was a sufficient choice for a swing when the alternative was Trudope, Liberal powerplay brought in the perfect guy and that brought them all back quite quickly. Carney being a huge banker likely added false reassurance to the boomer crowd that their recently sinking savings may be saved by a guy who knows about money!

Pierre went radio silent during the Trump initial days which also hurt his appearance to many undecided.

Best part is that phony leech Singh is gone. Enjoy your pension you clown fuck!
 
Natural Order said:
Easiest way to explain what happened is that the largest voting block (Liberal boomers in Ontario and Quebec) were themselves sick of Trudeau's pageantry and phony BS. To the point that it appeared a massive and easy sway to Conservatives was coming.

All it took for that same swath of people who jumped ship, was something resembling a normal human being at the helm. Carney comes across as very well spoken and likeable. Non theatrical. These are not generally people invested into proper research of their candidates anymore. That's all it took to bring them back.

Well played by the Liberals here end of the day. Right switch, right time.
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Yeah, PP came off better versus an out of touch math teacher (Trudeau)

But he didn't do so well on the head-to-head with central banker (Carney). And then add in the "elbows up" sentiment regarding Trump and his constant pointless provocations towards Canada, and it was hard to position PP as the guy who was going to remake the trade relationship with the US in that specific scenario.
 
Limbo Pete said:
You keep sort if getting around the actual issue here... if the Conservatives won because the liberals are conservative, then why did the conservatives lose,
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Conservatives didn't win, conservatives did. Big C = political party, little c = people with conservative views. Conservatives lost because they didn't win as many ridings, but those who want conservative policy won.

From some reason you only see it as team red or team blue. You know there's policies in government, right? If Trump all of the sudden produced UHC, higher federal min wage, became pro unions...would that not be a win for the left / dem voters?

Carney won because quebec voters backed him and some NDP voters rather right wing policies over Conservative government; or they didnt even pay attention to polices and just correlated as all conservatism as being Trump.



Limbo Pete said:
and why did that one guy get evicted
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He lost his riding. It's a whacky system. A PM can actually lose their riding and still win government, even a majority. Conservatives last majority came with 39% of the popular vote, they got around 42% here.
 
rikibobby said:
Possibly the best opposition leader ever who took down Trudeau? Yeah, I think there is a very good chance.
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He comes across too soft. Won't re-resonate with the same crowd and certainly won't have the punching bag in Carney that he did in the Prancing Prince of Papineau. You may see him back in 20 years, but not in the short term I don't believe.
 
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