Brian Shaw could win but more things have to go right for him then more right for Jon Jones.
Jon Jones has more weapons and opportunities.
That being said Brian Shaw, if he can get some sort of mount position, get double underhooks against jon jones while mounted and really apply pressure that might break jon jones.
If Brian Shaw gets some crazy Judo throw and lands on Jon Jones ribs then he can win.
The way I see the fight going, Jon Jones hand fights or tires shaw out with wrestling. Then Jon hits a single leg and starts going for a choke against shaw.