Bringing back Steves 2c for this shitshow card, if anyone gives a shit about it:
O'neill/Serdes: Serdes is a huge mess although still not touching the fave. Liked the under before people played it to a decent fav line. Now I don't really trust O'neill finishing upside as it mostly relies on Serdes gassing and giving something up before 2.5 runs out.
Clarke/Bantayeb: Super low lvl, dog or pass. Bantayeb has gone dec multiple times, Clarke looks pretty on the eye until he falls apart after 7.5 min. Also his pro debut so a lot more time to fall apart. I lean over at pick em although I have been burned relying on two bums surviving before. Banteyeb line came in a bunch now not interested. Its in Clarkes home town, CW judging is always horrible.
Serpeti/Joyner: Sepeti is awful although keeps getting grappled. Now fighting a 15-0 kickboxer who should KO him at some point. Not much else to say.
Fields/Wright: Lil poke on Tom Wright as a moderate dog. I feel the only reason Fields is a decent fav is because he grapples and Wright has a bunch of rear naked choke loses. His TDD is solid, he threatens front chokes and is the way cleaner striker. Fields is hittable and a good back taker so that's the danger here, although he doesn't have nearly enough sub-wins for a specialist. The level of competition is similar and both fought Walsh at the end of their amateur career in title fights. Fields lost and was dropped in rounds 1 and 5, while Tom Wright shut his grappling down and won a clear UD. Make of that what you will.
Ambler/Tchamou: Ambler is giving up lots of physicality and Tchamou is live to kill him, although outside of round 1 I think Amblers grinding style is awful for him. Live bet would be perfect otherwise the under is tempting as both can kill early. Dog or pass pre.
Dos Santos/Humphries: Not enough tape on Dos Santos to get a read, tons of hype on Humphries. The ML is unplayable, comes down to whether U2.5 is value. To me it feels accurate at pick em. TDs will come, I can't cap Dos Santos sub defence.
Abraham/Lee: Abraham is a wild man, comes forward and swings at the expense of TDD and defense. It should be a lvls fight for Lee and step down in comp although he can never be trusted at chalk. The under has potential because it could be a barn burner, unfortunately it correlates with Lee jumping on his back and subbing him. Sometimes he can play it too safe on the outside. Pass.
Blair/Laisans: Blair will kill him, not much value anywhere.
Hill/Hawthorn: Dog or pass, Hawthorn has killer hands and better boxing although all low lvl of comp. He was killed early in his one step up. He also has a strong wrestling background which you can see on tape. Hill gets outmuscled and taken down by almost everyone yet when he gets on top his body lock and GNP is brutal. Tough fight to get a read, the under is chalky. Even though it can go under in multiple ways, I don't feel confident hitting it.
Freeman/Libiano: I originally thought Libiano had some value since she grapples and is young although upon further inspection Freeman seems to have some grappling of her own so huge pass for me all round.
Power/Kolasinski: Kola is a Glory kickboxer with a decent record who fought nobody and keeps throwing spinning shit and pulling guard. After his first loss which was on short notice, he should fight smarter. Power is cleaner in boxing and has been grappling a ton recently, making his fights boring. It's a clear dog or pass yet I don't have the balls to hit Kola with how stupid he can be, especially if Power grapples. The under is also at pick em which feels accurate.
Hardwick/Prins: Dog or pass all day, wild line. The only issue is the 5 round aspect and Prins letting minutes go to waste. Otherwise, he's better than many guys Hardwick has gone to dec with recently. The over is also tempting if you can get past the 5 round aspect again. Prins seems incredibly durable, and Hardwick always looks to be on his way to a finish and then walks across the dec line.
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