I don't see how Halsey CANNOT crush Carvalho. Carvalho is decent, good striking and clinch, meh wrestling but if Halsey gets him on the ground, it's over for that round. Only chance Carvalho has is if he stays on the feet and tries to KO him early or somehow try to survive into the later rounds until Halsey tires out. Don't think the latter will happen since Halsey didn't give Grove a chance to win in 4 rounds. The fight could easily end up looking like Halsey vs Shlemenko.
Manhoef vs Kato winner should get the winner of this fight IMO. I know it may be a little early for Kato (assuming he wins) but who else can you put in there for the belt?