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Apparently one judge had Loma up, one had Linares up and the final judge had it a draw. Reported by multiple journalists.
Boxing Discussion VIII
- Thread starter CR0W
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Munguia At 3.5! Was value of the year! Thank you paddy power
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I wish man. Murica sucks
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@The Dermo
Hi and welcome to this forum. Congratulations for the picks for this week, you have really smashed some of them : Munguia, Loma KO, Fury R1-6... Hell, even Azat was huge value and would have made me richer by 2K. That wide decision was not that fair.
This forum really dropped in quality in the last few months/year. We could really use people like you and I really hope we'll see more of your breakdowns!
Hi and welcome to this forum. Congratulations for the picks for this week, you have really smashed some of them : Munguia, Loma KO, Fury R1-6... Hell, even Azat was huge value and would have made me richer by 2K. That wide decision was not that fair.
This forum really dropped in quality in the last few months/year. We could really use people like you and I really hope we'll see more of your breakdowns!
Thanks a lot pal, I appreciate that! I didn't tip Mungia on here must have been one Ryan told you about so I can't claim credit on here for it, next week is a bit barren but I've got a couple of plays locked in so I'll post em up with a break down later or tomorrow
azat +800 was a solid play if you had access to live betting. vargas got down to as low as -250 and was in the low -300s for two rounds.
a great freeroll/middle
Taking Badou Jack to win vs Adonis Stevenson, best price 2.4 with Paddy Power/Betfair.
Badou is a skilled fighter who seems to get better with each performance, once he gets into a rhythm he's hard to shake out of it. Looking at Stevenson's record I'd say that Jack will be the best opponent he has faced, Jack beat the crap out of Nathan Cleverly in his last outing, you could argue that Clev was only there for the pay day as he retired soon after it but Jack made short work of disposing of him.
Stevenson has been extremely inactive, he possess huge power, however if Jack gets into his rhythm I believe that the inactivity and the poor run of opponents for Stevenson will tell. Jack was iced in a round in 2014, but I'm viewing that as an anomaly, not that he's chinny.
For me the superior abilities of Jack will see him winning down the stretch, points would be the most likely outcome but I wouldn't rule out a late stoppage, I'm just taking the straight win line which will shorten. If Jack isn't around 1.8.-2.0 come fight night I'll be surprised.
Badou is a skilled fighter who seems to get better with each performance, once he gets into a rhythm he's hard to shake out of it. Looking at Stevenson's record I'd say that Jack will be the best opponent he has faced, Jack beat the crap out of Nathan Cleverly in his last outing, you could argue that Clev was only there for the pay day as he retired soon after it but Jack made short work of disposing of him.
Stevenson has been extremely inactive, he possess huge power, however if Jack gets into his rhythm I believe that the inactivity and the poor run of opponents for Stevenson will tell. Jack was iced in a round in 2014, but I'm viewing that as an anomaly, not that he's chinny.
For me the superior abilities of Jack will see him winning down the stretch, points would be the most likely outcome but I wouldn't rule out a late stoppage, I'm just taking the straight win line which will shorten. If Jack isn't around 1.8.-2.0 come fight night I'll be surprised.
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I agree. While I don't think Jack stops him, I think it's his fight too lose if he stays away from Stevenson early.
Plus, Badou is in his prime while Stevenson is 40...
2u on Jack @ 2.47 at Williamhill with daily boost.
What's your take on Selby-Warrington? Selby cruise to an UD? What about the Moloney brothers on the australian card coming up Saturday morning?
Plus, Badou is in his prime while Stevenson is 40...
2u on Jack @ 2.47 at Williamhill with daily boost.
What's your take on Selby-Warrington? Selby cruise to an UD? What about the Moloney brothers on the australian card coming up Saturday morning?
I'm not gonna bluff I don't know anything about the Moloney brothers so no comment on that.
Selby-Warrington, I already put money on the fight to go to distance with NetBet @ 1.6 - that price went shortly after I put my dough down, definitely a pricing error from them as Selby is 1.66 for DEC with them, but they've not voided it.
I'm thinking is is going to be a harder nights work for Selby than a lot of people think so I'm rolling with a Warrington decision @ 5.5 with 888/Unibet. Seriously when was the last time Selby looked impressive? He's drained at the weight, looks like death on the scales and should've moved up to SFW at least 12 months ago. When this fight was first mooted when both were with Matchroom I picked Selby by masterclass - not now after his last few performances. I think Warrington will be up close all night making Selby work harder than he's done in a good while, the partisan crowd may have an influence on the judges (speculation) I just think if Warrington with his renowned engine makes Selby work hard then we could so a close decision in favour of the Leeds man. The draw would also be worth a play.
I used to be a big fan of Selby but he's treading water nowadays, there's the argument that Selby will step up as the level of his opponent steps up, but I prefer to look at the evidence and the evidence for me is that Warrington is improving but Selby is going backwards.
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Taking 1.25u on Joseph Diaz @ 9.00 against Gary Russell.
Russell said after his fight with Escandon that he only wants a couple more fights and then he will retire. It is very clear that he is in it only for the money... I think Diaz can emulate Lomachenko's gameplan to an extent and win against Russell. At these odds I must go with Diaz.
Russell said after his fight with Escandon that he only wants a couple more fights and then he will retire. It is very clear that he is in it only for the money... I think Diaz can emulate Lomachenko's gameplan to an extent and win against Russell. At these odds I must go with Diaz.
I think it might be too early for Diaz against the lightening quick and skilful Russell, however I see that price has dropped to 6.00 now so you'll have smashed the closing line come Saturday, which is half the battle so props for that.
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Short write up and bet since it appears people are unhappy that I don't post breakdowns for fights when nobody has asked for it.............
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First let me just say that if this was Stevenson from 3 years ago I'd pick him by KO 90% of the time, but it's not so we are left wondering if he has aged overnight at 40? Will his gas tank hold up? Is his counter left still as fast, are the fast, explosive reflexes still there? Of course being largely inactive brings a lot of questions like the above but it also means that Adonis hasn't taken a lot of damage for being 40 years old, he hasn't had to endure punishing wars and he is without doubt well rested in between fights. You can definitely look at it from both sides, Adonis who is known to be a notorious cherrypicker has taken this fight against the younger Jack, which suggests he does believe this is a very winnable fight for him, and in all honesty it could end up being his last, especially if it's an emphatic win.
Jack needs to be at the top of his game here, stick to a strict game plan of circling away from the left, mixing his shots up and not staying in the pocket too long. The battle of the lead foot will be huge here, Jack has shown to be very slick when he wins this and keeps his opponent chasing whilst he lands stabbing shots. His ring generalship is very good, he often dictates the tempo of the bout. If Jack can mix his shots well he can negate that left hand of Adonis, we've seen Adonis shell up at times when his body is being worked, which has left his feet out of place and looking a bit sloppy. The danger with this is that although Jack used this same kind of tactic well against Bute, Bute eventually started to time Jack and crack him with some solid lefts to the head and body, although a decent enough puncher; Bute's power is nothing compared to Stevenson's and if Stevenson lands one of them of Jack it could well be game over. Jack's inside game is decent, he's crafty with his forearm to create space and work the body but he can get carried away and stay in there too long which he has been punished for before.
Although 40, power is the last thing to go, so even an Adonis that looks slower explosively is a big danger with his power and timing. Stevenson is a fantastic counter puncher but can operate on the front foot too, if the Bellew fight Bellew actually had some success early on in making Stevenson miss with the left hand, he pivoted well and left Adonis searching. Adonis began to change it up, using his lead right to feint and hook in order to set up the left which then began to find it's home on the chin of Bellew. Although the right hand of 'Superman' isn't near as much a threat as his left, he's crafty with it and uses it well to set up his shots. Adonis being a southpaw also makes this interesting due to the fact we have seen Jack have a hard time against southpaws in the past, DeGale and Bute, both of who although fantastic boxers didn't carry this kind of power. Jack's best win's have all been majority decisions, splits or draw, not slating him by any means, I love watching him but although he ran through Cleverly we have to remember this was the ghost of Cleverly and I expect a majority of the top guys would have done the same.
I really hope there isn't but stylistically there is a high chance we seen a clash of heads here so even a little on the draw could be worth a shout. Southpaw vs Orthodox and both guys love to leap in with shots to the body and that is a recipe for disaster here. Stevenson can't afford to be so lazy with his low guard in this fight, he's gotten away with it against others and he does use it well when he's concentrating, his high shoulder block and roll make him a very elusive target for anyone to land a right hand on. However, we've seen him get complacent with it and get caught clean, Fonfara managed it a good few times.
For me there are a few key factors here; Adonis being the naturally bigger guy with Jack's only fight at the weight being against a shot Cleverly. Adonis' killswitch power, he's hurt much bigger guys than Jack with that textbook straight left which pierces through the guard. The southpaw stance we've seen cause Jack trouble and the his chin. Now I don't but into the whole "he's got a glass chin" crap but I do think it's questionable, which I think is a fare statement.
If Badou comes in on the top of his game and can do it up until round 8 and avoid the big shots then it's totally possible he wins by late stoppage or DEC but that's a huge IF. He could just look to young and fast for Adonis who could look very old and slow, but I just don't see that happening at this point in time. There are a few guys at Light Heavy I think beat Stevenson but Jack isn't one of them yet and it being in Canada and being promoted by Yvon Michel is a bonus for Adonis too if it does end up close on the cards.
I'm taking Stevenson @ 1.75 (I was expecting him to be around 1.50) and will wait until props are released before possibly making another play.
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First let me just say that if this was Stevenson from 3 years ago I'd pick him by KO 90% of the time, but it's not so we are left wondering if he has aged overnight at 40? Will his gas tank hold up? Is his counter left still as fast, are the fast, explosive reflexes still there? Of course being largely inactive brings a lot of questions like the above but it also means that Adonis hasn't taken a lot of damage for being 40 years old, he hasn't had to endure punishing wars and he is without doubt well rested in between fights. You can definitely look at it from both sides, Adonis who is known to be a notorious cherrypicker has taken this fight against the younger Jack, which suggests he does believe this is a very winnable fight for him, and in all honesty it could end up being his last, especially if it's an emphatic win.
Jack needs to be at the top of his game here, stick to a strict game plan of circling away from the left, mixing his shots up and not staying in the pocket too long. The battle of the lead foot will be huge here, Jack has shown to be very slick when he wins this and keeps his opponent chasing whilst he lands stabbing shots. His ring generalship is very good, he often dictates the tempo of the bout. If Jack can mix his shots well he can negate that left hand of Adonis, we've seen Adonis shell up at times when his body is being worked, which has left his feet out of place and looking a bit sloppy. The danger with this is that although Jack used this same kind of tactic well against Bute, Bute eventually started to time Jack and crack him with some solid lefts to the head and body, although a decent enough puncher; Bute's power is nothing compared to Stevenson's and if Stevenson lands one of them of Jack it could well be game over. Jack's inside game is decent, he's crafty with his forearm to create space and work the body but he can get carried away and stay in there too long which he has been punished for before.
Although 40, power is the last thing to go, so even an Adonis that looks slower explosively is a big danger with his power and timing. Stevenson is a fantastic counter puncher but can operate on the front foot too, if the Bellew fight Bellew actually had some success early on in making Stevenson miss with the left hand, he pivoted well and left Adonis searching. Adonis began to change it up, using his lead right to feint and hook in order to set up the left which then began to find it's home on the chin of Bellew. Although the right hand of 'Superman' isn't near as much a threat as his left, he's crafty with it and uses it well to set up his shots. Adonis being a southpaw also makes this interesting due to the fact we have seen Jack have a hard time against southpaws in the past, DeGale and Bute, both of who although fantastic boxers didn't carry this kind of power. Jack's best win's have all been majority decisions, splits or draw, not slating him by any means, I love watching him but although he ran through Cleverly we have to remember this was the ghost of Cleverly and I expect a majority of the top guys would have done the same.
I really hope there isn't but stylistically there is a high chance we seen a clash of heads here so even a little on the draw could be worth a shout. Southpaw vs Orthodox and both guys love to leap in with shots to the body and that is a recipe for disaster here. Stevenson can't afford to be so lazy with his low guard in this fight, he's gotten away with it against others and he does use it well when he's concentrating, his high shoulder block and roll make him a very elusive target for anyone to land a right hand on. However, we've seen him get complacent with it and get caught clean, Fonfara managed it a good few times.
For me there are a few key factors here; Adonis being the naturally bigger guy with Jack's only fight at the weight being against a shot Cleverly. Adonis' killswitch power, he's hurt much bigger guys than Jack with that textbook straight left which pierces through the guard. The southpaw stance we've seen cause Jack trouble and the his chin. Now I don't but into the whole "he's got a glass chin" crap but I do think it's questionable, which I think is a fare statement.
If Badou comes in on the top of his game and can do it up until round 8 and avoid the big shots then it's totally possible he wins by late stoppage or DEC but that's a huge IF. He could just look to young and fast for Adonis who could look very old and slow, but I just don't see that happening at this point in time. There are a few guys at Light Heavy I think beat Stevenson but Jack isn't one of them yet and it being in Canada and being promoted by Yvon Michel is a bonus for Adonis too if it does end up close on the cards.
I'm taking Stevenson @ 1.75 (I was expecting him to be around 1.50) and will wait until props are released before possibly making another play.
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i really see no reason to bet jack at the open when there is a very good chance that he will be down on the cards after the firstfour rounds.
and there is also a chance that clevelry was finished as was fonfara after their life and death compubox-breaking war. retiring immediatley after his fight with jack, perhaps nathan knew that he was done before the fight
i agree with crow, 40-year-old adonis pre-fight with the hopes of a live bet hedge
jack ko rds 7-12 at +1400 might be worth a play as well.
and there is also a chance that clevelry was finished as was fonfara after their life and death compubox-breaking war. retiring immediatley after his fight with jack, perhaps nathan knew that he was done before the fight
i agree with crow, 40-year-old adonis pre-fight with the hopes of a live bet hedge
jack ko rds 7-12 at +1400 might be worth a play as well.
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Yeah, I'd happily live bet hedge Jack if he survives 6 rounds and Adonis looks to be slowing down, at that point we probably get Jack at around 5.00 or higher.
i think jack rds 7-12 at +1400 would be worth a play at the open.
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Certainly a good price, Jack knows he has to be elusive and avoid a war early on, Fonfara tried it in the second fight and paid the price. If he boxes well and works the body in the first 6 he has a big chance of winning down the stretch, but like I say, a big IF.
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