Boxing Discussion VIII

Canelo down to -450 on BetMGM I'm hitting that, best it's gonna get and I have full confidence that he's getting the W tonight.

Won about $471 off Canelo tonight, would've been down bad if he lost lol but knew it wasn't really in the cards for GGG to get the job done. Can do a better job with unit sizing etc in the future but still a great night for me, very happy.

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Parker will have a speed advantage this week. Ive bet him at +165 and +190 then also +390 by decision. But i just cant get Joyce slow plodding jabs wearing Parker down as the fight goes on

I doubt Parker can outbox him for 12, hes going to slow down fter round 7 or so. I seriously doubt he drops Joyce let alone stops him. Having 2nd thoughts on this one now. Should be good though

Re Jake Paul. Silva has looked good but hes a 47 year old man who's been KOd multiple times. Hes infinitely more skilled than Jake will ever be but he probably only needs to be landed on once here to stop it...

Going to be a very sad day if Jake KOs Anderson!
 
Parker / Joyce
This is one of those fights that on paper seems pretty straight forward but the more you look into the details the less easy it is to predict the winner. What Parker will turn up; the Parker from Chisora 1 or the rematch. From recent interviews I'm inclined to think lacklustre performances where a combination of him losing focus and not training seriously due to facing opponents that he didn't consider much of a threat. I am expecting the better version that we saw in the Chisora rematch to show up.

Parker is the much better boxer, but tends to fade or let rds slip by not throwing enough so could cost him rds against a volume jabber like Joyce who won't slow down. I think no matter who you think should win the odds are obviously wide. If this was a neutral fight I would put Parker at a moderate favourite (around the -150 range). However with the promotion backing Joyce and the fight taking place in the UK you need to consider the likeliness of the scorecard outcome in a close fight. This fight has SD written all over it, but then again I wouldn't be surprised if Parker wins a clear decision either.

With all things considered I still think Parker should be a slight favourite at around -120, and is the clear value side at +190.


Anderson / Jake
Watch the Jake Paul / Woodley rematch and look at the handful of sloppy faints he tries in the fight. Now watch Silva's fight against Chavez, and you will see the difference between someone who has been training for a few years and the elite. Unless we get a much improved Jake and a deteriorated Silva, I give Jake a punchers chance at landing a glancing head blow due to Silvas age.

I think Anderson should be at least a -160 favourite.


Basically its 2 fights with wide experience differences between opponents, in these sort of fights I normally go with the more experienced fighter unless the skill / athletic gap is evident which it isn't in either.
 
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-£355 Parker
-£100 Joyce decision +350 after rd 9
..........
-£455
 
Done trying to bet against Joyce. He looked really good, I was suprised by how well he managed the distance and controled the action with his jab. Even though he is old, he is young in boxing experience and seems to be improving every fight... I tried to cash out after rd 4 as it was evident he wasn't going to slow but it was already -900.
 
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Same... Considering Eubank ML or Eubank KO.
Fights off. Benn failed a drugs test

Hearn tried getting a court injunction for the fight to go ahead lol. I guess if Eubank is ok with it press on but no way an athletic commission worth anything allows it
 
Fights off. Benn failed a drugs test

Hearn tried getting a court injunction for the fight to go ahead lol. I guess if Eubank is ok with it press on but no way an athletic commission worth anything allows it

Damn, no UFC this week either
 
Paro won but via KO1. No idea why i didnt play ML, it was reasonable at -160ish too. Oh well

Adding a unit on Shields at +108
 
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