I nearly completely agree with you. But ward still cannot win on that shot. See Jon jones vs matt hammill or Cote vs Sakara.
seventh round, what appears to be an even round up to that point if kov not winning, shows an intentional ward headbut then followed by a clear low blow that weeks ignored(29:01).
eigth round shows what appears to be a left low blow followed by a right on the belt.
still tough to say 100 percent if the low blows were part of wards gamplan but the fouls probably had an effect on sergey and its the fault of both jdj and kov himself for not retaliating to stop it.
some people have said before that ward was dirty so its not like canelo or ggg incorporating this into their fight plan when they have no prior precedent