Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 1, 2017.
I got ~+5u profit from yesterday. Not a bad day!
Does Culcay have any chance on Sat night?
Two hard hitters with a lot of KOs squaring off on this HBO middleweight main event Saturday evening. Lemieux is considered the better boxer and should surely be favored, but you can't say that Stevens doesn't have a clear path to victory, especially if he catches Lemieux early. They've been talking a lot of trash on social media, so I expect fireworks. Not sure if the line will keep going up, but I bit for a smallish bet at this price on 5D reduced juice:
Curtis Stevens (+340) vs David Lemieux $60.00 for $204.00
tailed. also put a bit on Culcay.
How do I hedge this parlay. With the cancellation I think the payout will only be about 300.
Payout would be $260. The only way to hedge would to bet Paul Smith's opponent.
Right now you basically have a $65 bet on Paul Smith +400
With a small parlay like that to win only $260, I would just let it ride.
As far as Culcay/Andrade, looking at the stats like age with Andrade two years younger, experience, strength of opposition, height, power -with Andrade a much better KO percentage, stance as Andrade's a southpaw to Culcay orthodox, and even reach I assume although Culcay's isn't listed on BoxRec- I can't imagine Culcay having much of a chance even at 10 to 1 or 12 to 1. Maybe if it goes the distance and it's even somewhat close he can get a robbery in notoriously biased Germany?
I understand. I just meant what props should i hedge with....ko or decision...rounds etc.
Prolly will just let it ride thanks.
There are no props out for that fight yet. Don't even see an o/u. Yeah, I would just let it ride
Andrade should really win this as he has all the advantages on every physical and experience criterion I can think of, but tiny bet on the home country underdog just in case something weird happens or there is a robbery in this world title fight in notoriously biased Germany:
Jack Culcay (+1000) vs Demetrius Andrade $10.00 for $100.00
I'm pissed I can't make it to the Stevens/Lemieux, not many fights this fan friendly are in my neck of the woods so I'm super disappointed I won't be able to make it this weekend. That being said I'm am on board with those that think this line is off. Stevens at anything +300 or better is a good bet, imo.
Lemieux should win this but Curtis can shell up well with that tight earmuff defense he has and I could totally see him catching Lemieux with that big counter hook of his which is one of the best counter hooks in the sport. One shot kill if he lands it just right. Even though Lemieux's devastating offense makes me favor him overall, he shouldn't be this big of a favorite, -400 isn't near worth the juice imo.
Ton of big dogs fighting in next few days. Any worth betting? Surely one or two has to hit.
Tons of juiced fighters tomorrow on 5d. Any possible big dog plays?
On the Belfast card tomorrow? Hard to imagine any upsets among these big dogs who are pretty clearly handpicked cans with bad or actually losing records:
Jamie Conlan 18 0 0 vs Yader Cardoza 22 10 1
Sean Turner 9 0 0 vs Kamil Sokolowski 2 9 2
Paddy Barnes 1 0 0 vs Adrian Dimas Garzon 10 21 0
Im on Pipat Chaiporn* +2000 just cuz i like his last name
I wouldn't mind watching some Chai Porn...
just some hot spicy tea going at it...
just wiki-capping this shit..but also on Usui for 1/2 unit
Quite a height difference of 6" between Amagasa and Usui. But on one of the Asian boxing websites Amagasa said the weight cut was "a bit tricky", although not as bad as when he fought Rigondeaux at super-bantamweight. What the hell, I'm a degen, small bet on Usui at +400.
Kinshiro Usui (+400) vs Hisashi Amagasa $25.00 for $100.00
^^ lol at that height difference jeez. Usui seemed to have the better win streak going and the other guy had a few recent losses
I just cant stand the thought of one of these dogs hitting without me having something on it #degenboxing
I'm on Cardoza small as well, Conlan hasn't had serious competition. I also like Pipat Chaiporn. Also, 1u on Yafai dec +450. I see less than 50% chances for Gigolashvili to be KOed, only 6 rounds as well.
In the main event on the Belfast card on BoxNation tomrorow, Conlan has several early KO/TKOs and Cardoza has been stopped multiple times. Plus I believe that Irish and UK referees are liable to stop fights quickly for fighter safety reasons with the not infrequent incidences of boxers and MMA fighters there ending up in a hospital, a coma or even having died in the last few years
Jamie Conlan/Yader Cardoza/ Under 8½ (+120) $40.00 for $48.00
lemuiex 5" taller than curtis wearing lifts
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