Economy BOOOOM! *** 4.1% GDP!!! *** US Economy Explodes

[jeffk]

If you cut regulations and cut environmental protections and cut taxes and continue to spend and run up a big deficit it is not surprising that it would lead to a short term growth in gdp.

You also have less environmental protection and when you run up the deficit when there is already low unemployment you likely increase inflation so real wages do not go up or keep up with the inflation. And you have a higher amount of debt and a fed that will likely raise rates to deal with the inflation pressure.

 

[ScottE]

But he is clearly on track. He will break 3% easily.

To start Obama had two stronger quarters then this in 2014, one over 5%, and 2014 still only came in a 2.4%.

Secondly 3% for the year is not on track. If that is all that occurs we've traded 1.69 trillion in tax cuts for an increase in GDP that only covers half that loss in revenue. We are worse off in that trade.

Especially when you tack in the stangating wages, increasing inflation, and increased rise in healthcare cost. Not only is the GDP growth you seem to believe is sufficient not enough to finance the tax cuts, the growth isn't benefiting most people.

This is like celebrating winning $20 on a scratcher but forgetting you bought $40 worth of scratchers.

 

[Factory]

I'm not pessimistic, it's basic math.

First quarter growth was 2.2%. He's not on track to break 3% consider we have 2 quarters to go and tariffs looming and certainly not even close to breaking 4%.

No trade deals have been signed, hell, the tariffs aren't even taking effect till next quarter.

We need 6% annual growth to make up for the tax cuts.

but based on basic math he is on track to break 3%? (2.2 + 4.1) / 2

Q1 + Q2 = 3.15%

We will see, I think he will break 4%!

 

[Rational Poster]

but based on basic math he is on track to break 3%? (2.2 + 4.1) / 2

Q1 + Q2 = 3.15%

We will see, I think he will break 4%!

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

Becuase you have no way of knowing this without one.

Do you really think billions in international tariffs on steel and agriculture are going to improve the Q3 growth?

 

[Factory]

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

Becuase you have no way of knowing this without one.

Do you really think billions in international tariffs on steel and agriculture are going to improve the Q3 growth?

sure, but I need it back

Of course I don't know, nobody does. At the end it's all speculation. I just believe that Trump does good eco policy and that it could be a very good year for the US economy.

 

[Rational Poster]

sure, but I need it back

Of course I don't know, nobody does. At the end it's all speculation. I just believe that Trump does good eco policy and that it could be a very good year for the US economy.

Then think really hard with your noggin and tell me your honest opinion.

Do you think billions in international export/import tariffs that go into effect next quarter are going to improve growth?

 

[ScottE]

sure, but I need it back

Of course I don't know, nobody does. At the end it's all speculation I just believe that Trump does good eco policy and that it could be a very good year for the US economy.

And you're still not addressing that even your high end speculation wouldn't finance the tax cuts. Nor the lack of actual improvement the GDP growth is yielding.

 

[Jack V Savage]

but based on basic math he is on track to break 3%? (2.2 + 4.1) / 2

Q1 + Q2 = 3.15%

We will see, I think he will break 4%!

YOY growth in the quarter was 2.8%, though. And it does look like some growth was pulled from the next quarter. It's solid growth, and consistent with what we've seen since 2014.

 

[Damien Karras]

Yeah that's an impressive quarterly result

Now ask yourself who is benefiting the most from this. It's not the middle class.

Also, a true conservative with an eye for responsible governing would look at the deficit and wonder if a 4.1% quarterly GDP increase is worth spending itself into insolvency later down the line.

 

[Squarechoke]

no, breaking exceptions are not irrelevant. It shows that Trump's economy is doing well in relation to the current economic situation.

You're just trying to weasel yourself out of commenting on what I actually was talking about. Is it that scary for you to be wrong? The way you act it doesn't seem like it would be a very novel sensation for you.

 

[ScottE]

Yeah that's an impressive quarterly result

Now ask yourself who is benefiting the most from this. It's not the middle class.

Also, a true conservative with an eye for responsible governing would look at the deficit and wonder if a 4.1% quarterly GDP increase is worth spending itself into insolvency later down the line.

That doesn't exist in government presently. So long as it yields any increase to GDP they will declare the tax cuts a success. They'll ignore the deficit increase, they'll ignore stagnating wages, they'll ignore inflation.

And their base, as evidenced in this thread, will throw a party for them.

 

[regmma123]

donnies been flipping off u.s. allies, undermining u.s. agencies and sucking vlad off. It’s nearly impossible to believe that he truly has anyone’s or anything’s best interest in mind other than himself. Hence the reason for the skepticism

 

[Drenalin]

Hey, that's good news.

What may end up being more important to the average Americans standard of living is a recent story I saw saying China has stopped buying real estate, and is starting to sell real estate in the US as a result of the trade war. We sure could use some downward pressure on housing prices.

That’s great news! Keeps our money here where it belongs.

We just had a lady from China come here to St. Louis & make us an offer on our 60 unit apartment complex. She gave the lowest offer yet because she said she would have to manage it from China.

 

[Jack V Savage]

You are probably right about the pull forward demand, i'm not sure what fields that largely effected but it would make sense. Depending on how much we rely on aluminum/steel (I've read the overall tariffs in total account for like 4.1% of our imports or something) from those countries you are right, we could have problems in the 3rd qtr. And then ripple effects in industries that use those products primarily, which I imagine is quite a lot.

I was merely pointing out with SOME tariffs already in place we had a pretty substantial gain the 2Q, although i'd be lying if I said I fully understood specifically the situation with China and it's multiple threats (from them, and US) and various timelines since March of this year.

Apparently, this was expected. Wasn't following closely enough, I guess.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ory.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0b437c2fbfe7

On Friday morning, we’ll get an update on how the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, is faring. GDP growth is likely to look quite strong in the second quarter: Forecasters expect it to be well above 3 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Some predictions run as high as 4 or 5 percent.

...

There are a lot of idiosyncratic factors that juiced growth last quarter. One is that growth was relatively disappointing at the beginning of the year and was due for a rebound. Again, the numbers are noisy.

But another major factor is that businesses freaking out about Trump’s trade war likely pulled forward some of their activity. That is, as Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist Ellen Zentner puts it, they “doomsday prepped” by stockpiling raw materials, intermediate goods and finished products before tariffs raised costs on all those things.

Soybean exports surged, for example, as companies raced to beat retaliatory tariffs that went into effect this month. The jump in soybean exports alone probably added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter, estimates Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

We should expect a reversal later this year, as buyers run down their existing inventory rather than place new orders.

Of course, in the partisan environment of the WR, it's impossible to just honestly discuss the economy...

 

[Morning Star]

It's a good number and higher than a lot of analysts were saying, but it's still just one quarter. If we finish out the year strong then I think it's something worth celebrating.

 

[SaiWa]

So is that what you guys are holding on to? "But it's not the yearly numbers..." How many times did you guys say he wouldn't even get this far? The economy was suppose to crash when he won and it's doing better than ever.

I certainly didn't and I know the difference between quarterly GDP compared to yearly GDP average. Anybody that is slightly mathematically inclined and familiar with the economy will tell you that 3%+ quarterly GDP is easily attainable in a decent/good year. It's maintaining it over the whole year that is difficult. Your reference was clearly about yearly GDP and you compared it to quarterly.

That tells me you don't know shit about economy, terrible at math, cannot read properly or a combination of those. So yeah move that goal post and pretend you know what you are talking about... lol

 

[Revolver]

Setting the bar awfully low if people are celebrating about one quarter. Keep it up for a few more and then come back and talk. It's a nice start though.

 

[HunterSdVa29]

Apparently, this was expected. Wasn't following closely enough, I guess.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ory.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0b437c2fbfe7



Of course, in the partisan environment of the WR, it's impossible to just honestly discuss the economy...

good find there

 

[7437]

no, breaking exceptions are not irrelevant. It shows that Trump's economy is doing well in relation to the current economic situation.

The current economic situation?

 

[ScottE]

The current economic situation?

He doesn't actually know what he means, he's just saying words.