Economy BOOOOM! *** 4.1% GDP!!! *** US Economy Explodes

[Rational Poster]

Republicans need to stop feeding the military industrial complex. That's by far my biggest gripe with Trump. #2 is his failure to push hard for the wall.

They cannot and they will not stop.

Too many jobs depend on government subsidies in the arms trade and mostly these are Republican voters.

If the Republicans seriously go after military spending it will seriously be the end of the Republican party winning elections.

The two hands wash each other.

 

[kpt018]

You are right it is deceiving, just not in the way you think. Obama was coming off of a financial meltdown. Obama's growth numbers were terrible for the economic situation he was in. Trumps are off the charts considering that almost every economist considered the US to be prime for cyclical economic decline before Trump was elected. The truth is more complicated obviously, but the left needs to stop with the idea that the economy is doing poorly it just makes them look dishonest and frankly stupid.

Who the hell said the economy is doing poorly? I sure as hell didn't.

And I'll keep pushing on this point, explain how Trump's policies are resulting in economic growth. If you can't, this discussion is meaningless.

And my position, which has been consistent for a long time, is that presidents have a far smaller impact on the economy than people attribute to them. But if you want to measure their effects you have to really drill down on policy and that can be complicated.

Was there something else going on during the recovery during Obama's presidency that could have resulted in smaller stimulus and no further action? Hint: look at the makeup of Congress during that time.

 

[kpt018]

Did something get cut off @Teppodama ?

 

[waiguoren]

Who said it was supposed to crash immediatly?

Literally nobody said it was going to crash.

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
By PAUL KRUGMAN


2016-11-09 12:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

 

[waiguoren]

They cannot and they will not stop.

Too many jobs depend on government subsidies in the arms trade and mostly these are Republican voters.

If the Republicans seriously go after military spending it will seriously be the end of the Republican party winning elections.

The two hands wash each other.

I hope you're wrong, man.

 

[Teppodama]

Did something get cut off @Teppodama ?

yep. I meant to say fair enough on your comment.

 

[kpt018]

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
By PAUL KRUGMAN


2016-11-09 12:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

Krugman should know better too. Do you know if he talked about his error here? One thing I do credit Krugman for is admitting when he fucks up like this.

 

[44nutman]

wages are still falling.

 

[andnowweknow]

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
By PAUL KRUGMAN


2016-11-09 12:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

Did you read that? He could write the same thing in 6 months and have a different response.

 

[Rational Poster]

I hope you're wrong, man.

I highly doubt there are large numbers of Democrat voters in arms manufacturing and sales.

Cutting military spending will cut military jobs in both the public and private sectors without question and I think it's entirely reasonable to assume that a majority of these workers and salesmen vote Republican specifically because they constantly line their pockets with taxpayer money and they won't be happy about losing their jobs.

Republicans had every opportunity since Trump was elected not to raise military spending since they control every branch of government.. but they just couldn't resist themselves. Could it be an important midterm campaign coming up perhaps? I wonder..

 

[Farmer Br0wn]

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
By PAUL KRUGMAN


2016-11-09 12:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

I don't know of any Economist that's been more consistently wrong then Paul Krugman.

Paul Krugman is almost a good "opposites meter". If Paul Krugman says you should go left, then you should bet your bottom dollar that you should go right. If Paul Krugman says down, you should be long on up.

 

[waiguoren]

Krugman should know better too. Do you know if he talked about his error here? One thing I do credit Krugman for is admitting when he fucks up like this.

He did admit it as an error in the days afterward, though only in passing.

My opinion is: a man who can suspend rationality to that extent in an emotional fit or otherwise make such a horrible prediction in his area of specialization is not to be trusted.

 

[Rational Poster]

wages are still falling.

Corporate tax rate the lowest it has ever been in my lifetime.

My company has gone from the bottom of the top 500 to the middle of the top 200 within the past two years and I still only received a standard 3% corporate raise.

Thanks Trump!

 

[waiguoren]

Did you read that? He could write the same thing in 6 months and have a different response.

I don't understand what you're saying.

 

[Seano]

I hope you're wrong, man.

He's not. The US is a military super power and we will remain one.

 

[waiguoren]

He's not. The US is a military super power and we will remain one.

We would be a superpower with half of our current level of military spending.

Waste/fraud/abuse in the military sector is rampant.

 

[44nutman]

Corporate tax rate the lowest it has ever been in my lifetime.

My company has gone from the bottom of the top 500 to the middle of the top 200 within the past two years and I still only received a standard 3% corporate raise.

Thanks Trump!

Due to wages falling, I have noticed supplies of homes increasing, Days on Market increasing, and prices are stagnant.

 

[Rational Poster]

He's not. The US is a military super power and we will remain one.

Military spending has nothing to do with our super power stance and everything to do with buying votes.

Were we not a super power in 2002 when our military spending was less than half the current amount?

MIC companies need to show growth like any other private business to their shareholders and the only way to do that is if the US government spends more money every year since that's their primary customer.

 

[Rational Poster]

Due to wages falling, I have noticed supplies of homes increasing, Days on Market increasing, and prices are stagnant.

The Chinese housing bubble is going to pop eventually and wipe out investors all over the world.

Multi-billion dollar investment properties literally falling apart before the projects are even finished.

 

[GetTheseHands]

Literally nobody said it was going to crash.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathan...ere-recession-since-early-1980s/#567709477d25
Forbes: Trump Economic Plan Would Send U.S. Economy To Most Severe Recession Since Early 1980s

The Atlantic: Donald Trump's Economic Plans Would Destroy the U.S. Economy

• “A President Trump Could Destroy the World Economy” — Title of a Washington Post editorial, October 2016
Just for the record, the world economy is as strong today as it has been in at least a decade, as The Wall Street Journal recently reported. Now the left has to engage in logical contortions to explain how the red hot American economy is really a result of Obama policies — every which one Mr. Trump has systematically been at work dismantling.

• “Donald Trump’s first gift to the world will be another financial crisis.” — Headline in the U.K. Independent. “He gives every impression that he will soon be hustling America — and possibly the entire world — in the direction of another catastrophic financial crisis.”

• “I have no stocks. I advise people not to invest in the stock market, not now. Way too dangerous.” — Filmmaker Michael Moore, August 2017.

• “It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? A first-pass answer is never… So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.” — Paul Krugman of the New York Times the day after the election.

• “Trump’s domestic policies would lead to recession.” — Mitt Romney, March 2016.

• “If Trump wins we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks — and a likely crash in the broader market [if Trump becomes president].” —Eric Zitzewitz, former chief economist at the IMF, November 2016.

• “Under Trump, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States.” — Former Clinton and Obama chief economist Larry Summers, June 2016

Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House. New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.” — Ben White, Politico, October 2016.