I was arguing with my team mates at open mat about this all day yesterday. Everyone talks about fedor like he's a god because he always comes out on top, but they always forget some of the horrible mistakes he made during the fight. Fedor is so great because he has the best mind for fighting and is unbelievably adaptable to every situation, but his technical skills aren't that great in certain areas.
I called Werdum to win this one and by the end of open mat actually convinced 2 others at my academy with the logic behind it. I said picture how you think this fights going to go based on previous opponents. look at their exact skills and attributes on paper without looking at their fight records.
Fedor gets a knockdown and frantically runs in to finish, opponent barely manages to recover. than fedor goes for some stupid attack and ends up in a sub attempt or on his back. Do you really think he'll manage to get up or get out against a grappler like Werdum???
On paper without looking at the records and only looking at analytical data of how each fights werdum is the most dangerous fighter Fedor has ever faced for his style. Stylistically Werdum matches up really bad for Fedor. we know Werdum can take abuse and recover well, he has good takedowns, great sweeps, even greater submissions, and a constantly active and dangerous guard.
I believe most people expected Fedor to be able to god his way out of any submission attempt or bad position because he's done it so many other times against other opponents, but none of them brought the exact combination of skills and attributes that Werdum brought. if they have a rematch I think it will go very similar, unless Fedor makes some massive changes.
With that said I don't think Werdum is the best at all. just one of the very few that possesed the right game to expose Fedor's weaknesses. I don't believe Werdum is capable of beating many of the fighters Fedor can. Also as sure as I as that Werdum would win I still turned down the many bets all my team-mates were throwing at me. I'm undefeated in betting on MMA fights, and a good way to stay that way is not bet against Fedor. No matter how bad i thought this fight was for him a small part of me expected him to come out on top.