Best underdog pick for UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs Tsarukyan?

[Lights Out 101]

As of now, the underdogs are:

Dariush
Green
Figueredo
Gastelum
Guida
Stoltzfus
Tate
Brundage
Solecki
Garcia
Potieria
Gooden
Hardy

I think both Green and Figueredo are primed to get the W. I'm actually a bit shocked Font is the favourite here.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Brundage imo.

 

[fortheo]

I have vanessa macedo hardy and gastelum as the favorites. Figgy is a decent underdog since I see that as a 50-50 fight

 

[IneedSometop]

Can't put my finger on it but Solecki is speaking to me as an underdog here.

Dariush is good pick as well. Benny at +240 feels a little wide to me given what we've seen from both fighters in their careers

 

[Unheralded Truth]

Guida and Brundage are very likely to win

 

[gentel]

Figueiredo imo - Sandhagen clowned Font with his grappling which isn't that elite, and Figueiredo can grapple

That said, Dariush also very underrated

 

[PEDRO IVO RUSSO MIRANDA]

I think dariush ,green and Figueredo really good chances.

 

[Gabe]

I like Fig here as the underdog.

 

[Kumason]

Can't put my finger on it but Solecki is speaking to me as an underdog here.

Solecki is good but he's just going to want to go to the ground and Klose has awesome tdd and is an absolute dog. He's beaten Marc Diakiese, Lando Vannata when he had hype, Bobby Green, had Dariush stepping in potholes, I don't like this fight for Solecki stylistically at all. Klose has been super inactive these last bunch of years so maybe that'll effect him in a bad way. We're all wrong all the time that's why we love this sport (well many here apparently hate it lol) but the odds are almost even for a reason, but I wouldn't touch Solecki with those odds.

 

[flektarn]

Dariush is the underdog

 

[IneedSometop]

Solecki is good but he's just going to want to go to the ground and Klose has awesome tdd and is an absolute dog. He's beaten Marc Diakiese, Lando Vannata when he had hype, Bobby Green, had Dariush stepping in potholes, I don't like this fight for Solecki stylistically at all. Klose has been super inactive these last bunch of years so maybe that'll effect him in a bad way. We're all wrong all the time that's why we love this sport (well many here apparently hate it lol) but the odds are almost even for a reason, but I wouldn't touch Solecki with those odds.

This is a good analysis and seems like it might be the case. Klose has a sneaky tough strength of schedule and the high level experience might pay off for him. Like I said this is a straight up vibes pick and 99% of the time that’s a not a smart way to bet lol

 

[swarrrm]

Gastelum then Dariush

 

[EndlessCritic]

I don't understand how Dariush is such a dog here. He showed against Gamrot he's not getting held down. He's going to have the striking advantage. It's also 5 rounds.

Also don't understand how Green is such a dog when Turner is taking this on short notice.

 

[Benoitthegr8]

The guy formerly known as Jesus “the carpenter” Guida

 

[xhaydenx]

Solecki is good but he's just going to want to go to the ground and Klose has awesome tdd and is an absolute dog. He's beaten Marc Diakiese, Lando Vannata when he had hype, Bobby Green, had Dariush stepping in potholes, I don't like this fight for Solecki stylistically at all. Klose has been super inactive these last bunch of years so maybe that'll effect him in a bad way. We're all wrong all the time that's why we love this sport (well many here apparently hate it lol) but the odds are almost even for a reason, but I wouldn't touch Solecki with those odds.

Also, Solecki doesn't really have 3 round cardio. He fades hugely outside of round 1 while Klose is a 3 round fighter with great cardrio.

 

[JoeRowe]

As of now, the underdogs are:

Dariush
Green
Figueredo
Gastelum
Guida
Stoltzfus
Tate
Brundage
Solecki
Garcia
Potieria
Gooden
Hardy

I think both Green and Figueredo are primed to get the W. I'm actually a bit shocked Font is the favourite here.

Font has one of the best jabs in mma and Figgy had a lot of issues dealing with Moreno's jab. Font's also much bigger and more proven at 135.

Kelvin & Bobby are my 2 favorite dogs. Dariush has great value, as did Steve Garcia. Tate by decision isn't crazy, Avila just as old and coming off a long layoff. Solecki by decision solid value too.

 

[TheTickG]

As of now, the underdogs are:

Dariush
Green
Figueredo
Gastelum
Guida
Stoltzfus
Tate
Brundage
Solecki
Garcia
Potieria
Gooden
Hardy

I think both Green and Figueredo are primed to get the W. I'm actually a bit shocked Font is the favourite here.

Gastelum, although it'd be good to see the odds too.

 

[Safton]

I have:

-- Dariush
-- Green
-- Gastelum
-- Gooden

Of those, I think Dariush offers the best balance of "likelihood to win versus dog value". I really don't think he matches up nearly as poorly against Arman as a +240 line would suggest. Furthermore, I think he has some areas in which he can make Tsarukyan (who looked remarkably human against an unranked guy in his last outing) legitimately struggle.

I don't have Figgy, Guida, Stolzfus, Brundage, Solecki, Potieria, or Hardy on my card... but I could make arguments for each of them winning if so inclined. Some of those arguments might actually be good <45>

 

[Richard Fannin]

Gastelum, although it'd be good to see the odds too.

Gastelum is a slight +100 underdog, and Sean Brady is a -120 favorite.

Complicated one... I've always like Gastelum ever since he got picked last on TUF 17 and ended up winning the season.
Plus, Kelvin has always been better at WW, even if he's also picked up some good wins at MW

Kelvin is far from being a scrub on the ground (Eddie Bravo/Brian Beaumont 10th Planet BJJ BB), but from what I've seen from Brady, he's on a higher level.
Brady submitted another 10th Planet BJJ BB last year at Fury Pro Grappling 4 via Kimura
Could Gastelum avenge his senpai?


If they keep it on the feet, which is possible, Gastelum has a nice sprawl

and top TDD in general

then Gastelum should have the advantage, he has solid boxing and surprisingly good jabs, good accuracy, cuts the cage nicely


Solid head movement

and has real heavy hands, dropped a lot of his opponents, even some that he ended up losing to

If it reaches a decision, then it better be a split, so Kelvin can keep his "most split decisions in the UFC (6 so far)" record from ever being touched

Rooting for Kelvin, but wouldn't be mad is Brady rebounded from his sole loss with that one. I just hope none of the 2 gets badly hurt, they are injured enough as it is

edit: damn, the gifs are buggin' again ><

 

[Lights Out 101]

Man, Stoltzfus was definitely not on my bingo card. This card is shaping up to have some pretty good upsets.