Apparently Fedor is in great shape (haven't seen the weigh in) and Johnson's not that good. He's also been knocked out by Junior Albini and Kongo so his chin isn't made out of titanium or anything. Also Fedor probably still much more skilled ground guy although size will even things out.
I was about to be on that full Johnson train as well but Fedor doesn't take fights if isn't serious about winning them. I think Bader is much much more reliable to get that big early finish than Tim is.
I already bet on Tim due to + odds but am starting to think the Fedor win won't be as shocking as it seems.