Bellator 224 Budd vs Rubin

JimGunn said:
Bellator 224 Risk $5,705.88

Julia Budd (-255) vs Olga Rubin $637.50 for $250.00
Julia Budd (-275) vs Olga Rubin $687.50 for $250.00
Julia Budd (-285) vs Olga Rubin ~$979.40 for ~$343.65
Julia Budd (-320) vs Olga Rubin $320.00 for $100.00
Julia Budd (-322) vs Olga Rubin ~$460.20 for ~$142.92
Julia Budd (-323) vs Olga Rubin $322.58 for $100.00
Julia Budd wins inside distance (+172) $50.00 for $86.00
Julia Budd/Olga Rubin Under 4½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00
Julia Budd/Olga Rubin Under 4½ (+125) $100.00 for $125.00
Julia Budd wins in round 4 (+1000) ~$23.60 for ~$236.00
Julia Budd wins in round 5 (+1400) ~$23.60 for ~$330.40

Rafael Carvalho (-131) vs Chidi Njokuani $262.00 for $200.00
Rafael Carvalho wins by 3 round decision (+325) $50.00 for $162.50
Rafael Carvalho/Chidi Njokuani Over 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00
Rafael Carvalho/Chidi Njokuani Over 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

Kristina Williams (+205) vs Juliana Velasquez $100.00 for $205.00

Ed Ruth (-375) vs Kiichi Kunimoto $937.50 for $250.00

Parlay:
Ed Ruth (-400) vs Kiichi Kunimoto + Julia Budd (-325) vs Olga Rubin $352.00 for $206.25
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What make sure you so confident in budd
 
There might be a good opportunity to fade Ruth in the future. I was not impressed by his performance.
 
Impressive performance by Ruth. He needs to work on his cardio and defense, but his striking is massively improved and he has a tough chin.

Anywho, for this next fight, I have 2.2u on Velasquez at -280. Probably would have risked even more if I knew I would get her at -230, but I will resist the temptation to put more on a fight with at least a few concerns.
 
And said:
There might be a good opportunity to fade Ruth in the future. I was not impressed by his performance.
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I liked what I saw, his problems aren't something some training can't fix.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
I liked what I saw, his problems aren't something some training can't fix.
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I'd expect him to completely steamroll that level of opponent. I think he'll run into trouble as soon as the level rises. He has huge defensive flaws.
 
Ruth needs to work on his boxing defense for sure to protect his chin, but his striking looked good.
 
And said:
I'd expect him to completely steamroll that level of opponent. I think he'll run into trouble as soon as the level rises. He has huge defensive flaws.
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You mean a significantly higher level of opponent than Ruth has ever beaten before? And have you seen Ruth's earlier Bellator fights? This represents a huge improvement in his level of striking.

As for his "huge defensive flaws", they're about as bad as those of many UFC welterweights. Except that Ruth is only 7 fights into his career and capable of a lot more improvement.
 
Velasquez is looking sharp
 
Cash that ml and itd ticket
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
You mean a significantly higher level of opponent than Ruth has ever beaten before? And have you seen Ruth's earlier Bellator fights? This represents a huge improvement in his level of striking.

As for his "huge defensive flaws", they're about as bad as those of many UFC welterweights. Except that Ruth is only 7 fights into his career and capable of a lot more improvement.
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I've seen his earlier fights. He has improved but he only looked good now because he went back to fight a pre-GP level of opponent. He has a long way to go before becoming a top 6 Bellator WW and I doubt he ever gets there, but you never know, clearly he's athletically gifted and he might prove me wrong.

"UFC level" doesn't really mean that much anymore. One might even argue that Bellator has much more depth at WW.
 
Do I regret putting only 2.2u on Velasquez? Not necessarily. I was concerned about 3 things;

1. Williams showed improvement in her last fight against Bruna Ellen. If she showed a similar amount of improvement against Velasquez and Velasquez didn't, it could potentially be a closer fight.

2. Alejandra Lara showed how poorly Velasquez deals with opponent movement and how flat-footed she is coming forward. I thought one of Williams' coaches might notice this and have her constantly circling and spamming kicks.

3. Williams is a local Oklahoma girl and she tends to get a round more than she deserves as a result. I thought Letourneau beat her 30-27. Judges all had it 29-28 Letourneau. I thought Williams beat Ellen 29-28. 2 of 3 judges had it 30-27.

Luckily, Williams didn't improve an iota, her coaches freaking suck, and the fight never made it to the cards.
 
And said:
I've seen his earlier fights. He has improved but he only looked good now because he went back to fight a pre-GP level of opponent. He has a long way to go before becoming a top 6 Bellator WW and I doubt he ever gets there, but you never know, clearly he's athletically gifted and he might prove me wrong.
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What 6 welterweights would you currently put in front of Ruth? There's MacDonald, Lima, Gracie, Koreshkov, and?

Ruth beats Page, Fitch, and Daley.

And said:
"UFC level" doesn't really mean that much anymore. One might even argue that Bellator has much more depth at WW.
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It's close.
 
Velasquez looked like she should’ve been -400

Could be a top 5 flyweight in the ufc
 
ill800 said:
Velasquez looked like she should’ve been -400
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Heh, that's what I capped her as. Would have gone much harder on -230 than -280, but I decided to spend that money on the main event, instead.

ill800 said:
Could be a top 5 flyweight in the ufc
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Easily. She would be a favorite against Jessica Eye, at the very least.

The only UFC flyweights clearly better than Velasquez are Valentina Shevchenko and Andrea Lee.
 
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