Bellator 224 Budd vs Rubin

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I smashed Julia Budd at -255 & -275. Canadian champion Julia Budd at 12-2 has only lost to Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes early in her career. She is a physical specimen and a decent kickboxer with reasonable power and good takedowns who can strike on the feet with hands and elbows, get takedowns and finish fights on the floor with ground & pound. The younger Israeli Olga Rubin with just a 6-0 record is reasonably well rounded but has no one overwhelming weapon or elite skill set to threaten Julia Budd with. She got taken down twice in round 1 & 2 by a much smaller 5'4" woman in her last bout against Iony Razafiarison and judo thrown to the ground in her bout before than against veteran submission specialist Cindy Dandois before turning things around to stop the Belgian schoolteacher. Dandois even managed to hold her own with her comical striking early on. Budd told James Lynch she just signed a new four fight deal and has been studying Rubin in preparation for this bout and that she plans to stop her early. Even though Rubin trains with a decent coach in former UFC bantamweight Brad Pickett, I just don't see how she is going to beat Budd unless she has improved immeasurably and Budd is really ill prepared. I think Budd could easily be -450 or -500 here so I feel fine playing her straight under -300. Hope the line stays close and I'll add a lot more on it, juice be damned. I'll be on the under too when it comes out if reasonably set.

Also on the early line for Ed Ruth and parlayed Budd + Ruth. And took some on Rafael Carvalho over Chidi Njokuani with the latter up at middleweight fighting former champion Carvalho who arguably beat Lyoto Machida in his most recent bout but didn't get the decision.
 
JimGunn said:
I smashed Julia Budd at -255 & -275. Canadian champion Julia Budd at 12-2 has only lost to Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes early in her career. She is a physical specimen and a decent kickboxer with reasonable power and good takedowns who can strike on the feet with hands and elbows, get takedowns and finish fights on the floor with ground & pound. The younger Israeli Olga Rubin with just a 6-0 record is reasonably well rounded but has no one overwhelming weapon or elite skill set to threaten Julia Budd with. She got taken down twice in round 1 & 2 by a much smaller 5'4" woman in her last bout against Iony Razafiarison and judo thrown to the ground in her bout before than against veteran submission specialist Cindy Dandois before turning things around to stop the Belgian schoolteacher. Dandois even managed to hold her own with her comical striking early on. Budd told James Lynch she just signed a new four fight deal and has been studying Rubin in preparation for this bout and that she plans to stop her early. Even though Rubin trains with a decent coach in former UFC bantamweight Brad Pickett, I just don't see how she is going to beat Budd unless she has improved immeasurably and Budd is really ill prepared. I think Budd could easily be -450 or -500 here so I feel fine playing her straight under -300. Hope the line stays close and I'll add a lot more on it, juice be damned. I'll be on the under too when it comes out if reasonably set.

Also on the early line for Ed Ruth and parlayed Budd + Ruth. And took some on Rafael Carvalho over Chidi Njokuani with the latter up at middleweight fighting former champion Carvalho who arguably beat Lyoto Machida in his most recent bout but didn't get the decision.
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Just finished tape for the bout Rubin-Budd and I think that the value is with Rubin, Young and strong, good coach, good all around game, strong in the clinch and more important, very athetical and strong. Budd is a OK fighter with a lot of experience, but the striking is kind of bad, low output and just relief in power and streng to TK an opponent. She surely can win, but I think that a younger strong fighter with that big + odds in a WMMA bout is a must, if the fighter is not a complete bum and Rubin is not one.
 
Vir_Ars said:
Just finished tape for the bout Rubin-Budd and I think that the value is with Rubin, Young and strong, good coach, good all around game, strong in the clinch and more important, very athetical and strong. Budd is a OK fighter with a lot of experience, but the striking is kind of bad, low output and just relief in power and streng to TK an opponent. She surely can win, but I think that a younger strong fighter with that big + odds in a WMMA bout is a must, if the fighter is not a complete bum and Rubin is not one.
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You mentioned "strong" or "strength" five times, but based on what I have seen in their previous fights I personally don't see any reason to think Rubin is as strong as Budd, nor her technique better in any area. Olga is fit and is okay as a fighter but I think Budd is going to make her look weak by comparison when they clinch up or press against the cage or when Budd throws or takes her down easily.
 
Bellator totals out: I really like Carvalho/Njokuani Over 1½ at -150 as both guys often go long or the distance especially since they are both long rangy strikers I think they will be careful not reckless to start things off. And Budd/Rubin Under 4½ +130 since Julia was saying in interviews that she has been working on her boxing and was going to finish Rubin early. Has the potential to do it on the feet or with ground & pound.
 
Watched Olga vs voznyuk and had some good laughs

She looks pretty clueless off her back
Throws arm punches, naked kicks and at times did some really awkward things with her striking

She had mount and lost position because she wasn’t sitting Down on voznyuks chest. Her gnp is pretty weak. All arm strikes

The fight was just two years ago. I’ll have to watch some recent fights of here but she looks pretty average besides her fitness.
 
ill800 said:
Watched Olga vs voznyuk and had some good laughs

She looks pretty clueless off her back
Throws arm punches, naked kicks and at times did some really awkward things with her striking

She had mount and lost position because she wasn’t sitting Down on voznyuks chest. Her gnp is pretty weak. All arm strikes

The fight was just two years ago. I’ll have to watch some recent fights of here but she looks pretty average besides her fitness.
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Her last couple of fights are on Bellator.com.
 
I wanna come out and thank Bovada for having absolutely no lines for these bouts...
 
LiquidNuke said:
I wanna come out and thank Bovada for having absolutely no lines for these bouts...
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They had them yesterday, maybe pulled them briefly. Will likely add them back this afternoon.
 
Im on Carvalho ML and O1.5 Carvalho/Njokuani

Like Under 4.5 on main event but dont still make bet.
 
Love the O1.5s on Chidi and Kunimoto fights. Also on Chidi ML +130
 
What do you guys think of a parlay of Ruth and Carvalho ITD? Likely to hit or a waste of money?

*Somebody help me I don't know shit about Bellator lol.
 
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LiquidNuke said:
What do you guys think of a parlay of Ruth and Carvalho ITD? Likely to hit or a waste of money?

*Somebody help me I don't know shit about Bellator lol.
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Pass, Kiichi is tough to finish and I expect the Carvalho fight likely GTD and favour Chidi there overall anyway. Expecting a low pace striking match where he edges it with his speed and volume
 
1u Over 1.5 Ruth-Kunimoto -161

0.5u Williams +240

0.5u Budd-Rubin FDGTD +110

2u Njokuani +100
1u Over 1.5 Njokuani-Carvalho -140
 
Bellator 224 Risk $5,705.88

Julia Budd (-255) vs Olga Rubin $637.50 for $250.00
Julia Budd (-275) vs Olga Rubin $687.50 for $250.00
Julia Budd (-285) vs Olga Rubin ~$979.40 for ~$343.65
Julia Budd (-320) vs Olga Rubin $320.00 for $100.00
Julia Budd (-322) vs Olga Rubin ~$460.20 for ~$142.92
Julia Budd (-323) vs Olga Rubin $322.58 for $100.00
Julia Budd wins inside distance (+172) $50.00 for $86.00
Julia Budd/Olga Rubin Under 4½ (+130) $100.00 for $130.00
Julia Budd/Olga Rubin Under 4½ (+125) $100.00 for $125.00
Julia Budd wins in round 4 (+1000) ~$23.60 for ~$236.00
Julia Budd wins in round 5 (+1400) ~$23.60 for ~$330.40

Rafael Carvalho (-131) vs Chidi Njokuani $262.00 for $200.00
Rafael Carvalho wins by 3 round decision (+325) $50.00 for $162.50
Rafael Carvalho/Chidi Njokuani Over 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00
Rafael Carvalho/Chidi Njokuani Over 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

Kristina Williams (+205) vs Juliana Velasquez $100.00 for $205.00

Ed Ruth (-375) vs Kiichi Kunimoto $937.50 for $250.00

Parlay:
Ed Ruth (-400) vs Kiichi Kunimoto + Julia Budd (-325) vs Olga Rubin $352.00 for $206.25
 
That over 1.5 line for Carvalho fight ballooned up fast! Always hate this kind of bets when watching live, feels like I'm holding my breath and stressful as I stare at the timer slowly ticking lol. GL to all you guys today!
 
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