I am a little conflicted about Mousasi vs Carvalho. I have no doubt that Carvalho is underestimated and underrated but that doesn't mean he's good enough to beat Mousasi.
I was so unimpressed with Mousasi's last bout, worst he's ever looked and its not just about the orbital injury. He gassed, he looked sloppy and he lost that fight, the decision was a gift. And it's not like Shlemenko is some world beater, an effective striker but he's a small middleweight that has suspect grappling.
Mousasi been in the game for 15 years, over 50 pro fights, he's only 32 but maybe all that cage time is catching up to him. The orbital injury is also a real concern, apparently he needs surgery but won't get it until retired.
Carvalho is a big athletic middleweight, he's a technical striker but he can also be very dangerous. His grappling isn't on Mousasi's level but he did show decent defensive wrestling and scrambling against Hasley (D1 wrestler) back in 2015, have to assume its only gotten better.
If Mousasi shows up looking like he did vs Shlemenko then he's in big trouble and the 5 rounds favors Carvalho who has showed great conditioning in the past. Carvalho also likes to attack the body a lot which will pay dividends in a 5 rounder. Mousasi also looked smaller than usual at the weigh ins, Carvalho appears to be in the best shape of his life.
On the feet I give the edge to Carvalho, it's all about how he deals with the wrestling and grappling of Mousasi. But there is no way I'd be trusting Mousasi as a -300ish favorite, especially after his last fight which wasn't that long ago, perhaps its a sign of whats to come