Bellator 170: Tito vs Chael

[Joseph Budden]

I actually find the big winners are the ones that dont boast about it.

Oh really?

 

[mkess101]

@Officer_Brown you've posted that you're betting $300 on a lot of fights.

@SBJJ posted a slip of a $20k bet on ONE FIGHT and has posted others for huge amounts.

I don't know success rates, ROI, etc. for everyone, and I don't care. But you aren't betting the amounts some guys here are. Again, that doesn't matter to me just thought I'd point it out. As for your capping, I think you do fine. You've pissed and moaned when you lose and were talking about quitting as you were "ruined" at one point, but you explained that as simple frustration over a losing night which is understandable. Just pump the brakes a bit LOL.

 

[Stunna77]

Played Sonnen dec +175 for 0.5 unit, now I am leaving my computer for the rest of the day before I make more bad bets. BOL tonight gentleman!

 

[Agent Mulder]

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/2016-recap-analytics.3438971/

Plus no one has as accurate bets as i do. Proved many times before. Last event I predicted all the fight outcomes correctly while others struggled and bought public hype.
@Joseph Budden is up there with me. I dont know how much exactly he does but he seems to be pretty accurate too. I'm still sure no one is generating my numbers. I just want to make it a crazy year and beat 50k mark.

I recall you writing that you were gonna have to start betting with your grandmas savings or whatever not long ago.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Yall are taking his custom title way too seriously loll

 

[mkess101]

Yall are taking his custom title way too seriously loll

I wouldn't even have noticed it if it hadn't been pointed out. I was more posting in response to him defending it. He seems pretty serious about it himself and if he's not and is just joking...shrug LOL

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Chael before and after TRT

The lightning is different which makes a difference and he appears to have a better tan going on in the bottom pic, but this is the difference from UFC 167 in 2013 and Bellator 170 yesterday. Take from it what you will. I'll try and find a better illustration before and after.

Spoiler

 

[EzFlyer]

Bella 170 Risk: 787
ortiz DEC: 35 for 101.50 / ortiz +3.5: 165 for 132 / sonnen
ward: 0 for 9 / daley DEC: 15 for 164.25
gracie-kato U1.5: 170 for 100
sanchez +120: 150 for 180 / karakhanyan
campos DEC: 25 for 96.25 / campos +3.5: 50 for 57.50 / O1.5: 165 for 100 / anderson
draws: 12 for 740
---

not finalized, but close

added 0.5u sanchez to make him 2u risk (+115 net).

that's it for me, i think. could freeroll a couple of these o/u's but nah.

 

[NinjaCat456]

I recall you writing that you were gonna have to start betting with your grandmas savings or whatever not long ago.

Remember reading that too. It was in one of the pbp threads after (another) disastrous night for him. One good event and he's #1 bettor on sherdog lol.

 

[mkess101]

added 0.5u sanchez to make him 2u risk (+115 net).

that's it for me, i think. could freeroll a couple of these o/u's but nah.

Campos dec +305 seems like good value, but man dat size difference...

 

[wack3d]

Tito DEC back up to +290 added:

0.35u Tito DEC +290
0.07u Tito ITD +552

so break even if Tito wins itd or +225 if Tito DEC hits

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Paul Daley decision is back over +1000

 

[MMA Goodfella]

What is the thread consensus on Tito vs. Chael and Ward vs. Daley?

I have 8u on Chael -154 and just put an additional two units on him at -175. I recognize that he's not in the best of shape and has been out for three years, but Tito has just looked like an absolute shell of himself for many many years now. Like it's been pointed out, he's only won like 2 of 8 fights in the last 10 years and the Ryan Bader victory was perhaps the biggest fluke in the last five years. That was GSP versus Serra like territory. Known for having great cardio over the years, that advantage is completely out the window at this point as he has slowed to a trickle after the first round in each of his last six or seven contest that have went to the final two stanzas. What's more, Tito appeared to be fighting in quicksand while wearing size 45 cement boots against Forrest Griffin and the same thing happened down the stretch against Bonnar.

I kid that Chael has been out for a while, but technically he is the superior wrestler and he would have had to fall off exponentially for him not to be able to be able to beat the current version of Tito. I mean, this is a guy in Ortiz who was two steps behind the past his prime and snail like Matt Hamill who boxed him up for 3 frames. This was a guy in Hammill who consistently fights at a glacial pace if there ever were one. Even if wrestling would cancel itself out, I still believe the Chael's boxing is the better of the two and I don't see Tito putting — or especially keeping — Chael on his back for 3 rounds. I actually see it the other way around .

I envision 30-27 scorecards across the board for Chael P en route to a decisive victory.. But I also like the over 2.5 I line here and think it's good parlay fodder..

As for Brennan Ward and Paul Daley, I put four units on Ward at +135 but have regretted doing so a bit. If Brennan fought with intelligence I would pull up 10u on him given that I think stylistically this is his fight to lose. However, I remember how easily Saad Awaad talked him out of the clutches of Ward with a single sentence that said, "Let me go we can just bang bitch" which is exactly what Brandon did. Awaad was able to bait Ward and that is disconcerting against a shit talker like Paul Daley.


Ward gave up position on Saad and it worked out for him, but Awaad is no Paul Daley. If Ward is baited into a fire fight with the British slugger there's a great chance he will end up with his face getting planted on the canvas. Ward has to mix up his strikes and wrestling to confuse Semtex. If he does this he has a very good chance of coming away victorious. But Ward has never struck me as the type of man who thinks before acting. It's always going to be a dick measuring contest with this guy and for this reason he may come to regret it.

That said, I still favor Ward here to get the victory.

 

[piglord]

As for Brennan Ward and Paul Daley, I put four units on Ward at +135 but have regretted doing so a bit. If Brennan fought with intelligence I would pull up 10u on him given that I think stylistically this is his fight to lose. However, I remember how easily Saad Awaad talked him out of the clutches of Ward with a single sentence that said, "Let me go we can just bang bitch" which is exactly what Brandon did. Awaad was able to bait Ward and that is disconcerting against a shit talker like Paul Daley.


Ward gave up position on Saad and it worked out for him, but Awaad is no Paul Daley. If Ward is baited into a fire fight with the British slugger there's a great chance he will end up with his face getting planted on the canvas. Ward has to mix up his strikes and wrestling to confuse Semtex. If he does this he has a very good chance of coming away victorious. But Ward has never struck me as the type of man who thinks before acting. It's always going to be a dick measuring contest with this guy and for this reason he may come to regret it.

That said, I still favor Ward here to get the victory.

this is essentially my thoughts as well. ward is a much better wrestler and should have a size advantage. daley is a pretty small welterweight and he's been in some wars, over 60 fights if you include his kickboxing record. at 33 he might be declining, he looked bad in his last fight.

honestly who knows what's going to happen. i hope ward fights smart but he's such a lunatic there is a good chance he bangs it out and gets dropped by the more technical striker. fuck it, i got ward at +150 so i'm happy to let it ride.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

What is the thread consensus on Tito vs. Chael and Ward vs. Daley?

I have 8u on Chael -154 and just put an additional two units on him at -175. I recognize that he's not in the best of shape and has been out for three years, but Tito has just looked like an absolute shell of himself for many many years now. Like it's been pointed out, he's only won like 2 of 8 fights in the last 10 years and the Ryan Bader victory was perhaps the biggest fluke in the last five years. That was GSP versus Serra like territory. Known for having great cardio over the years, that advantage is completely out the window at this point as he has slowed to a trickle after the first round in each of his last six or seven contest that have went to the final two stanzas. What's more, Tito appeared to be fighting in quicksand while wearing size 45 cement boots against Forrest Griffin and the same thing happened down the stretch against Bonnar.

I kid that Chael has been out for a while, but technically he is the superior wrestler and he would have had to fall off exponentially for him not to be able to be able to beat the current version of Tito. I mean, this is a guy in Ortiz who was two steps behind the past his prime and snail like Matt Hamill who boxed him up for 3 frames. This was a guy in Hammill who consistently fights at a glacial pace if there ever were one. Even if wrestling would cancel itself out, I still believe the Chael's boxing is the better of the two and I don't see Tito putting — or especially keeping — Chael on his back for 3 rounds. I actually see it the other way around .

I envision 30-27 scorecards across the board for Chael P en route to a decisive victory.. But I also like the over 2.5 I line here and think it's good parlay fodder..

As for Brennan Ward and Paul Daley, I put four units on Ward at +135 but have regretted doing so a bit. If Brennan fought with intelligence I would pull up 10u on him given that I think stylistically this is his fight to lose. However, I remember how easily Saad Awaad talked him out of the clutches of Ward with a single sentence that said, "Let me go we can just bang bitch" which is exactly what Brandon did. Awaad was able to bait Ward and that is disconcerting against a shit talker like Paul Daley.


Ward gave up position on Saad and it worked out for him, but Awaad is no Paul Daley. If Ward is baited into a fire fight with the British slugger there's a great chance he will end up with his face getting planted on the canvas. Ward has to mix up his strikes and wrestling to confuse Semtex. If he does this he has a very good chance of coming away victorious. But Ward has never struck me as the type of man who thinks before acting. It's always going to be a dick measuring contest with this guy and for this reason he may come to regret it.

That said, I still favor Ward here to get the victory.

I think most of us are against you on both

 

[iGnP]

What is the thread consensus on Tito vs. Chael and Ward vs. Daley?

I have 8u on Chael -154 and just put an additional two units on him at -175. I recognize that he's not in the best of shape and has been out for three years, but Tito has just looked like an absolute shell of himself for many many years now. Like it's been pointed out, he's only won like 2 of 8 fights in the last 10 years and the Ryan Bader victory was perhaps the biggest fluke in the last five years. That was GSP versus Serra like territory. Known for having great cardio over the years, that advantage is completely out the window at this point as he has slowed to a trickle after the first round in each of his last six or seven contest that have went to the final two stanzas. What's more, Tito appeared to be fighting in quicksand while wearing size 45 cement boots against Forrest Griffin and the same thing happened down the stretch against Bonnar.

I kid that Chael has been out for a while, but technically he is the superior wrestler and he would have had to fall off exponentially for him not to be able to be able to beat the current version of Tito. I mean, this is a guy in Ortiz who was two steps behind the past his prime and snail like Matt Hamill who boxed him up for 3 frames. This was a guy in Hammill who consistently fights at a glacial pace if there ever were one. Even if wrestling would cancel itself out, I still believe the Chael's boxing is the better of the two and I don't see Tito putting — or especially keeping — Chael on his back for 3 rounds. I actually see it the other way around .

I envision 30-27 scorecards across the board for Chael P en route to a decisive victory.. But I also like the over 2.5 I line here and think it's good parlay fodder..

As for Brennan Ward and Paul Daley, I put four units on Ward at +135 but have regretted doing so a bit. If Brennan fought with intelligence I would pull up 10u on him given that I think stylistically this is his fight to lose. However, I remember how easily Saad Awaad talked him out of the clutches of Ward with a single sentence that said, "Let me go we can just bang bitch" which is exactly what Brandon did. Awaad was able to bait Ward and that is disconcerting against a shit talker like Paul Daley.


Ward gave up position on Saad and it worked out for him, but Awaad is no Paul Daley. If Ward is baited into a fire fight with the British slugger there's a great chance he will end up with his face getting planted on the canvas. Ward has to mix up his strikes and wrestling to confuse Semtex. If he does this he has a very good chance of coming away victorious. But Ward has never struck me as the type of man who thinks before acting. It's always going to be a dick measuring contest with this guy and for this reason he may come to regret it.

That said, I still favor Ward here to get the victory.

10u on a fight w so many question marks? Win or lose that's not a good idea, man

 

[wack3d]

What is the thread consensus on Tito vs. Chael and Ward vs. Daley?

I have 8u on Chael -154 and just put an additional two units on him at -175. I recognize that he's not in the best of shape and has been out for three years, but Tito has just looked like an absolute shell of himself for many many years now. Like it's been pointed out, he's only won like 2 of 8 fights in the last 10 years and the Ryan Bader victory was perhaps the biggest fluke in the last five years. That was GSP versus Serra like territory. Known for having great cardio over the years, that advantage is completely out the window at this point as he has slowed to a trickle after the first round in each of his last six or seven contest that have went to the final two stanzas. What's more, Tito appeared to be fighting in quicksand while wearing size 45 cement boots against Forrest Griffin and the same thing happened down the stretch against Bonnar.

I kid that Chael has been out for a while, but technically he is the superior wrestler and he would have had to fall off exponentially for him not to be able to be able to beat the current version of Tito. I mean, this is a guy in Ortiz who was two steps behind the past his prime and snail like Matt Hamill who boxed him up for 3 frames. This was a guy in Hammill who consistently fights at a glacial pace if there ever were one. Even if wrestling would cancel itself out, I still believe the Chael's boxing is the better of the two and I don't see Tito putting — or especially keeping — Chael on his back for 3 rounds. I actually see it the other way around .

I envision 30-27 scorecards across the board for Chael P en route to a decisive victory.. But I also like the over 2.5 I line here and think it's good parlay fodder..

As for Brennan Ward and Paul Daley, I put four units on Ward at +135 but have regretted doing so a bit. If Brennan fought with intelligence I would pull up 10u on him given that I think stylistically this is his fight to lose. However, I remember how easily Saad Awaad talked him out of the clutches of Ward with a single sentence that said, "Let me go we can just bang bitch" which is exactly what Brandon did. Awaad was able to bait Ward and that is disconcerting against a shit talker like Paul Daley.


Ward gave up position on Saad and it worked out for him, but Awaad is no Paul Daley. If Ward is baited into a fire fight with the British slugger there's a great chance he will end up with his face getting planted on the canvas. Ward has to mix up his strikes and wrestling to confuse Semtex. If he does this he has a very good chance of coming away victorious. But Ward has never struck me as the type of man who thinks before acting. It's always going to be a dick measuring contest with this guy and for this reason he may come to regret it.

That said, I still favor Ward here to get the victory.

i almost always agree with your picks but i am on the other side on both tonight. with chael being undersized, out for 3 years and off the juice there is no way i can play him as favorite..

ward already said at the presser there is no way there will be any wrestling in this fight and they will just bang it out for the fans so ya i have to go with Daley at evens

 

[mkess101]

I think it's fairly safe to say that if Ward says he's coming in to throw hands and go for a KO, that's what he's gonna try to do. Lots of guys say that and then try for a hugfest. Ward is clearly a guy who enjoys fights where both guys swing as hard as they can until one falls down. I have a solid amount of confidence that's what we get tonight.

 

[piglord]

ward already said at the presser there is no way there will be any wrestling in this fight and they will just bang it out for the fans so ya i have to go with Daley at evens

he contradicted himself here. said the fight will take place wherever he wants.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

So far these are my bets:

0.5u on the "G in a gi" at 3.50
2u on Ortiz at 2.57
1u on Daley at 1.85
0.75u on Sanchez at 2.10

Tempted to increase my bet on Ortiz; Sonnen off the juice as a favourite doesn't make sense.

"Like a Gracie, I choke a out with his own gi"



I'm on the same plays. Good luck