Bellator 170: Tito vs Chael

[EzFlyer]

Bella 170 Risk: 787
ortiz DEC: 35 for 101.50 / ortiz +3.5: 165 for 132 / sonnen
ward: 0 for 9 / daley DEC: 15 for 164.25
gracie-kato U1.5: 170 for 100
sanchez +120: 150 for 180 / karakhanyan
campos DEC: 25 for 96.25 / campos +3.5: 50 for 57.50 / O1.5: 165 for 100 / anderson
draws: 12 for 740
---

not finalized, but close

 

[Roads55]

wondering how chaels cardio will hold up with the ring rust and all the extra weight.

 

[Oblivian]

wondering how chaels cardio will hold up with the ring rust and all the extra weight.

I really don't think he weighs much more. I just don't think he cut much. The size disadvantage is there, but I really don't think there is anything to say he's out of shape.

That's what I never understand about the weigh ins. People jizz over guys that look ripped which typically just means they are dehydrated as hell. It's not an indication if their cardio is there or not.

 

[PuertoRican]

I don't think people realize how dehydrated Sonnen was normally weighing in at 185 lbs. This is a promo photo of Sonnen from his UFC days when he's not dehydrated as hell.

Your boy is gonna get SMASHED.

Deal with it.

 

[null]

I really don't think he weighs much more. I just don't think he cut much. The size disadvantage is there, but I really don't think there is anything to say he's out of shape.

That's what I never understand about the weigh ins. People jizz over guys that look ripped which typically just means they are dehydrated as hell. It's not an indication if their cardio is there or not.

I disagree with this to a large extent. It's not the be all and end all, but I think physical shape is very meaningful. Fighters that look soft or noticeably less ripped at the weigh-ins compared to their earlier shape seem like they do worse than previous performances. And there is something to be said for looking like you have a dad bod compared to your ripped opponent if you are both pretty skilled and relatively experienced in my opinion.

 

[Tony J]

Oblivian,

Don't forget they did an early weigh-in which benefits the bigger man who gets extra time to recover. There was about 2 hrs between early weigh-in and ceremonial weigh-in so Chael isn't going to look much better than the ceremonials imo.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Does Tito have brain damage or does brain damage have Tito?

 

[mmaday4day]

How are people betting Ortiz? The last 2 times he fought pure wrestlers, he got mauled. Rashad took him down at will before beating the living death out of Tito, and Tito lost to Matt fucking Hamill. Tito has 2 legit wins in 10 years. Schlemenko (I don't really remember the fight, but it was a first round sub) and Ken Shamrock in 2006. I thought Bonnar won too, and everybody has seen his fight with Bader. Bader beats Tito 99/100 times.

I'm smashing Chael in this one.


Chael -210
Daley -120
Karakhanyan -130
Anderson -230

$300 parlay to win $1760.99

I don't have the balls to bet on Kato. Too many unknowns about his JJ or how he does off of his back for me, or how well Gracie can defend himself standing up.

Nice parlay. I put 260€ on Chael/Daley/Anderson to win 1018€. I couldn't pull the trigger on Karakhanyan as I believe this fight will be close maybe a split dec so I left it out. Good luck!

 

[Roads55]

I really don't think he weighs much more. I just don't think he cut much. The size disadvantage is there, but I really don't think there is anything to say he's out of shape.

That's what I never understand about the weigh ins. People jizz over guys that look ripped which typically just means they are dehydrated as hell. It's not an indication if their cardio is there or not.

I don't think he's out of shape but that extra mass will make him gas quicker which could be a big issue as both are wrestling centric. tito's noticeably bigger and cardio has been a big priority of his since frank shamrock schooled him. and chael has openly talked about how hard this training camp has been. 3 year ring rust is a lot and could effect his cardio further. it's a definite possibility at the least.

 

[Barkus]

chael has openly talked about how hard this training camp has been.

That makes me wonder how much of those 3 years off was spent training.

 

[Oblivian]

I disagree with this to a large extent. It's not the be all and end all, but I think physical shape is very meaningful. Fighters that look soft or noticeably less ripped at the weigh-ins compared to their earlier shape seem like they do worse than previous performances. And there is something to be said for looking like you have a dad bod compared to your ripped opponent if you are both pretty skilled and relatively experienced in my opinion.

And the problem is that people think physical shape = ripped at weigh ins. The bulk of the guys that look "in great shape" at weigh ins are due to a big weight cut. Some of them are truly in great shape, and some aren't. I've seen a lot of people read into the weigh ins WAY too much over the years and get absolutely burned on it.

 

[Oblivian]

Edit: Sorry quoted wrong guy here. Meant to quote Roads post originally

I don't think he's out of shape but that extra mass will make him gas quicker which could be a big issue as both are wrestling centric. tito's noticeably bigger and cardio has been a big priority of his since frank shamrock schooled him. and chael has openly talked about how hard this training camp has been. 3 year ring rust is a lot and could effect his cardio further. it's a definite possibility at the least.

Tito is absolutely going to be larger. Do not get me wrong there. It's clear from the weigh ins that Tito is still a normal size to large LHW and Chael didn't bulk up to actually become a true LHW. I have no doubt about that, I'm just saying it doesn't in any way show that Chael is out of shape. Tito will be the same Tito as we've seen most likely.

The cardio Tito after Shamrock thing went out the window a long time ago. Tito's cardio has not looked great for a while now. I mean how can you even begin to say that after Bonnar vs. Ortiz? Seriously, rewatch that fight. Quotes from the play by play: Beginning of Round 2..."Both of these men throwing punches in what seems to be slow motion" and Round 3 "Both men are completely gassed, hands at their sides, breathing with open mouths". That was in a low paced fight. Even if Sonnen is on the decline big time and not in shape, it would be a level playing field after what we saw with Ortiz vs. Bonnar.

 

[Roads55]

And the problem is that people think physical shape = ripped at weigh ins. The bulk of the guys that look "in great shape" at weigh ins are due to a big weight cut. Some of them are truly in great shape, and some aren't. I've seen a lot of people read into the weigh ins WAY too much over the years and get absolutely burned on it.

absolutely ppl read into it too much at times, but there's more to looking healthy at the weigh ins than just looking ripped. weigh in-s are great for playing line movement for these reasons

 

[Roads55]

Edit: Sorry quoted wrong guy here. Meant to quote Roads post originally



Tito is absolutely going to be larger. Do not get me wrong there. It's clear from the weigh ins that Tito is still a normal size to large LHW and Chael didn't bulk up to actually become a true LHW. I have no doubt about that, I'm just saying it doesn't in any way show that Chael is out of shape. Tito will be the same Tito as we've seen most likely.

The cardio Tito after Shamrock thing went out the window a long time ago. Tito's cardio has not looked great for a while now. I mean how can you even begin to say that after Bonnar vs. Ortiz? Seriously, rewatch that fight. Quotes from the play by play: Beginning of Round 2..."Both of these men throwing punches in what seems to be slow motion" and Round 3 "Both men are completely gassed, hands at their sides, breathing with open mouths". That was in a low paced fight. Even if Sonnen is on the decline big time and not in shape, it would be a level playing field after what we saw with Ortiz vs. Bonnar.

agreed with the first part, but chaels cardio is a big ? also, he hasn't gone longer than half a fight in 5 years, combined with not fighting at all for over 3, he could struggle like tito could too. hard to say though.

 

[Oblivian]

absolutely ppl read into it too much at times, but there's more to looking healthy at the weigh ins than just looking ripped. weigh in-s are great for playing line movement for these reasons

Absolutely, for guys that look like they are completely drained or had a rough cut. I haven't kept exact tabs on it, but I know that I've seen a lot of people say "he looks absolutely ripped like he's been training his ass off" or "looking a little soft" having the exact opposite effect of what they believe in terms of cardio. Weigh ins show how much weight someone has cut more than anything - plain and simple.

 

[Oblivian]

agreed with the first part, but chaels cardio is a big ? also, he hasn't gone longer than half a fight in 5 years, combined with not fighting at all for over 3, he could struggle like tito could too. hard to say though.

I agree with you there. Chael may not have the cardio that he used to, but man, his cardio would have to drop big time to match how Tito has looked. I can understand people questioning if Chael's head is still in it or say Chael has quit in fights, but he's always had a really good work rate. I mean his original cardio base is very strong and a decline would still have his cardio up there in terms of Bellator fighters. Tito's cardio would honestly have to be so drastically improved from the Bonnar fight for me to think he'd have a cardio edge against a declining and unmotivated Sonnen.

 

[Stunna77]

I see the temptation to bet Tito at current odds and almost did myself, but I can't do it. The guy has won 3 fights in the last 10 years, including catching Bader (I think everyone would smash Bader at anything less than -300 in a rematch) and a split against Bonnar in a slopfest. I am just going to enjoy another Bellator main event special, maybe play the over for some action.

 

[P4p Islam]

Nice parlay. I put 260€ on Chael/Daley/Anderson to win 1018€. I couldn't pull the trigger on Karakhanyan as I believe this fight will be close maybe a split dec so I left it out. Good luck!

Yessir! Good luck to you as well, and may you roll around in money when our boys win!

 

[Stunna77]

After showing restraint with Tito, I have entirely way too much on Ralek fucking Gracie who hasn't even fought in the last 6 years, let alone won. Currently 2 units at +255. This just feels like a toss-up to me, so have to bet the steep odds out of principle..

 

[Stunna77]

I wouldn't count on Tito having great cardio..."Over the past 14 weeks, I've been doing the same to myself. I would either pass out, throw up or die [in camp]. I threw up probably 30 to 40 times during this camp, I never passed out, and I'm still talking to you right now, so the third one never happened."

And it is now confirmed he has at least some brain damage..