Bellator 163 - McGeary vs Davis - Connecticut

[EzFlyer]

hrmmm

davis dec +165 not as high as i was hoping

awad dec +499? daley dec +248 or anderson dec +281?

no bets here, not yet. none of these props jumping at me.

 

[EzFlyer]

sergei looks heavy.. 263...

anderson looks softer up at 170...
^^ where is daley at weighin? what'd i miss? apparently he's "on his way" but didn't weigh in yet?

davis and mcgeary both look great

 

[Sham5916910]

sergei looks heavy.. 263...

anderson looks softer up at 170...
^^ where is daley at weighin? what'd i miss? apparently he's "on his way" but didn't weigh in yet?

davis and mcgeary both look great

Sergei looked normal to me pretty sure he normally weighs around that

 

[EzFlyer]

Sergei looked normal to me pretty sure he normally weighs around that

i'm used to 240 pound sergei from 2005!

 

[lefontes]

Over 2,5 McGeary/Davis, this line wrong IMO, should be 3,5 or 4,5. Both not finish each other. I will put 3u on this over.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Davis by decision +140 is a beautiful line. Only hit it with 100 but considering going harder

 

[mkess101]

So...

There are enough judges out there (esp these days) who no longer give as much credit to holding a guy on his back. And if the guy on his back is attacking with subs more than the guy on top is landing any gnp they will score rounds for the guy who spends the round on his back. Most of the time? No. But enough of the time that it's become noticeable? Yeah, to me it has.

McGeary dec +700. If his cardio holds up to where he can really make Phil defend on the mat more than attack I think he could win a decision here. Makes more sense at these odds to bet McGeary dec +700 than Davis dec +150 or whatever imo.

I mean, if you told me right now this fight hypothetically goes to the cards 100% of the time I'd probably say Phil wins a dec maybe 70% of the time? And I do think this fight goes to the cards most likely so I'm hitting this McGeary dec line.

 

[mkess101]

i'm used to 240 pound sergei from 2005!

Some guys think 263 sounds really good right about now, and wish it was 2005...

 

[EzFlyer]

Over 2,5 McGeary/Davis, this line wrong IMO, should be 3,5 or 4,5. Both not finish each other. I will put 3u on this over.

i lean o2.5 but not sure i'm willing to lay -165

 

[EzFlyer]

So...

There are enough judges out there (esp these days) who no longer give as much credit to holding a guy on his back. And if the guy on his back is attacking with subs more than the guy on top is landing any gnp they will score rounds for the guy who spends the round on his back. Most of the time? No. But enough of the time that it's become noticeable? Yeah, to me it has.

McGeary dec +700. If his cardio holds up to where he can really make Phil defend on the mat more than attack I think he could win a decision here. Makes more sense at these odds to bet McGeary dec +700 than Davis dec +150 or whatever imo.

I mean, if you told me right now this fight hypothetically goes to the cards 100% of the time I'd probably say Phil wins a dec maybe 70% of the time? And I do think this fight goes to the cards most likely so I'm hitting this McGeary dec line.

kinda expecting that mcgeary dec line to go up to +1000, cause most people will think (rightly or wrongly) it's mcgeary itd or lose.. and/or if it goes 5, it prolly means davis wrassling

 

[mkess101]

kinda expecting that mcgeary dec line to go up to +1000, cause most people will think (rightly or wrongly) it's mcgeary itd or lose.. and/or if it goes 5, it prolly means davis wrassling

I'll add if it does. I think there's value where it is, +1000 would be nutty imo.

 

[null]

I'll add if it does. I think there's value where it is, +1000 would be nutty imo.

I bet it at +700, thinking the same thing, McGeary could win a round or two even off his back potentially. I'll add if it gets up to +1000.

 

[EzFlyer]

don't get carried away.. not knocking the play, guys, i've eyed it... but it's one thing to win a round w/those funky triangles against newton and another entirely to do so against davis

 

[bruthead]

McGeary dec is +1000 on one Euro book (Bet Victor).

 

[mkess101]

don't get carried away.. not knocking the play, guys, i've eyed it... but it's one thing to win a round w/those funky triangles against newton and another entirely to do so against davis

Agree. It's also a play on the fact we've just seen some completely bizarre judging mixed in to the point where it's somewhat unpredictable at times.

And there's the chance the fight is standing more than we think and Davis has a hard time figuring out McGeary's awkward style.

I'm not talking multiple units here either LOL. I'm .4u now. If I see +900 or better probably will add another .33 or so.

 

[null]

I have exactly the same thought and same investment in McGeary DEC as mkess101.

 

[The MM Analyst]

I can't imagine what odds I'd need to take McGeary dec line. I legitimately think if you run this fight 100 times, Mcgeary wins by decision 0 times outside of a Pearson/Sachez fuckery situation.

 

[null]

I can't imagine what odds I'd need to take McGeary dec line. I legitimately think if you run this fight 100 times, Mcgeary wins by decision 0 times outside of a Pearson/Sachez fuckery situation.

Are you assuming that he's going to be helpless on his back in all five rounds? Are you not giving him the possibility of winning say, three rounds out of five in the fight either by for example- losing two on his back, winning one even though he's on his back part of the time and then winning one or two mostly on the feet?

 

[The MM Analyst]

Are you assuming that he's going to be helpless on his back in all five rounds? Are you not giving him the possibility of winning say, three rounds out of five in the fight either by for example- losing two on his back, winning one even though he's on his back part of the time and then winning one or two mostly on the feet?

I think the most likely outcome is Davis dominates him on the ground and submits him quickly with ease, followed by Davis dominating him on the ground to a decision, followed by Davis knocking him out on the feet, followed by Davis decisioning him through a combination of striking/top game, followed by McGeary winning via sub/ko with McGeary decision being last.

I am assuming he's going to be helpless off his back and pretty much helpless defending the takedown. I wouldn't call McGeary's bottom game good, just active. Against Newton he didn't seem to be able to apply mid-level white belt details on finishing the americana and triangle (take an angle on the triangle, bring the arm to the hip on americana), and that escape he does from side control where he pushes the crossfacing hand up with his same-side hand just gives up a mounted crucifix on anyone with a decent top game. Pushing the arm with the opposite hand is a legit escape, but countering McGeary's version is as simple as bringing your knee into the open space. Newton straight up didn't even bother defending subs until they were locked on, Davis is good enough on the ground to know that sub defense starts with prevention.

Maybe working with Renzo's team has sharpened his ground game up, but I think it's going to be years until he's ready to give someone like Davis trouble on the ground. There's also the issue that judges hate bottom work. His fight with Newton was a split decision despite McGeary clearly winning, and I'd be absolutely shocked if this fight was nearly as competitive on the ground. Maybe I'm overestimating Davis or underestimating Liam, but I don't think this is a competitive matchup on the ground, and McGeary not really having the option to play top or stop the takedown consistently basically eliminates the possibility of him winning a decision, imo. I'd sooner bet on Rashid Magomedov by sub over Dariush.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

So far I think I'm just throwing enough to win $20 on Daley's money line.