Bellator 161 - Johnson vs Kongo

[Joseph Budden]

If Kongo outwrestles Johnson i'm done with Bellator for life

 

[Sham5916910]

im not even betting on this shower of shit. the only time ive won is when it was in london and i was there live.

 

[Oblivian]

we have a miscommunication. i thought you were suggesting that i was saying kongo would get a takedown pretty easily. i wasn't.

I never thought you said Kongo would get takedowns easily. What it sounds like you were saying is that he will smash Johnson if he is able to get a takedown. I really don't think that is the case at all. If he gets on top of Johnson, my guess is Johnson works his way back up or Kongo is just struggling to keep him there. I'd be shocked if Kongo has an easy time after getting a takedown.

I think the thing a lot of people aren't factoring is who Kongo has fought. Honestly, he's almost always paired with strikers, and definitely not guys with strong wrestling. I've bet Kongo a lot, and it's honestly because the guys he faces often are so subpar with striking or takedown defense. That's why I was one of the few on him vs. Volkov.

 

[EzFlyer]

we have a miscommunication.

I never thought you said Kongo would get takedowns easily. What it sounds like you were saying is that he will smash Johnson if he is able to get a takedown. I really don't think that is the case at all. If he gets on top of Johnson, my guess is Johnson works his way back up or Kongo is just struggling to keep him there. I'd be shocked if Kongo has an easy time after getting a takedown.

we have a miscommunication.

slow your roll.

 

[Oblivian]

Are you kidding me? I'm just trying to figure out exactly what you meant and what your stance is.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Jim,

You brought me around on Kongo. The fact that Johnsons bro died recently and Johnson wants to strike is enough for me. In a close fight I like Kongo here now.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hoping Tony Johnson is more Brett Favre and less Jake Shields in regards to recently passed family member

 

[EzFlyer]

Jim,

You brought me around on Kongo. The fact that Johnsons bro died recently and Johnson wants to strike is enough for me. In a close fight I like Kongo here now.

i personally don't buy that johnson will want to strike, but i hope he does

 

[null]

Hoping Tony Johnson is more Brett Favre and less Jake Shields in regards to recently passed family member

I guess you're backing Johnson because Jake Shields got KO'ed by Jake Ellenberger shortly after his father suddenly died.

 

[null]

Jim, you have come a long way since zewkey, but have you not realized yet that price movements near +100 have the biggest affect on your potential payout?

1u @ -120 = .83 profit
1u @ +120 = 1.20 profit

1u @ -120 = .83 profit
1u @ -220= .45 profit

1u @ -250 = .40 profit
1u @ -350 = .29 profit

As the line moves away from even, the line movement has a less weighted effect on your potential profit. In the 40 point difference you lose as much profit per dollar that you lose in a 100 point change from -120 to -220.

That's a good mathematical point, but I'm still questioning whether it's wise to make a substantial wager on one side or the other in a near coin flip fight just because it pays a tiny bit more rather than passing and betting elsewhere in a fight that you think you know who is very much more likely to win.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I guess you're backing Johnson because Jake Shields got KO'ed by Jake Ellenberger shortly after his father suddenly died.

yeah i'm backing Johnson, thus why I hope hes more Favre-esque and not Shields-esque lol probably no one will remember what i'm referring to, but a day after Favre's dad died he put on an incredible performance on MNF.

 

[daggen]

Warren, Campos, and Johnson for me. Kakai has always been overrated.

Kakai overrated? how so? he will beat Warren, no doubt about it

 

[Oblivian]

Kakai overrated? how so? he will beat Warren, no doubt about it

He's coming off two losses as a favorite, once being a very large one. He was supposed to make a splash and he's looked very lackluster to me.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I haven't checked lines today, but Warren at evens is one of the best of the weekend imo. I'm not counting him out just cause Caldwell thrashed him, which is what the bookies seem to be doing. Stand up should be close to even, and Warren will outwrestle/scramble Kakai. So for me getting a dude at evens who can likely win all facets of the fight is a great play.

 

[Oblivian]

I haven't checked lines today, but Warren at evens is one of the best of the weekend imo. I'm not counting him out just cause Caldwell thrashed him, which is what the bookies seem to be doing. Stand up should be close to even, and Warren will outwrestle/scramble Kakai. So for me getting a dude at evens who can likely win all facets of the fight is a great play.

I think we're basically on the same plays on this event. It's weird, I feel pretty confident on this Bellator which I rarely do with Bellator. It probably means that it will be a disaster.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think we're basically on the same plays on this event. It's weird, I feel pretty confident on this Bellator which I rarely do with Bellator. It probably means that it will be a disaster.

Yup, thats how it usually goes for me too. With plays on the overs + Johnson and Warren that means Kongo and Kakai will win by KO in the first. I hate Bellator.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I haven't checked lines today, but Warren at evens is one of the best of the weekend imo. I'm not counting him out just cause Caldwell thrashed him, which is what the bookies seem to be doing. Stand up should be close to even, and Warren will outwrestle/scramble Kakai. So for me getting a dude at evens who can likely win all facets of the fight is a great play.

JB staying true to nuthugging USA wrasslin'

 

[Joseph Budden]

JB staying true to nuthugging USA wrasslin'

Warren is a NCAA division 1 Murican wreslter. Kakai is swedish (sorry Mulder, rille, other Swedish brethren ). Perfect time for me to get my nationalistic nut hugging on and hope it brings me the money

 

[LEMONZEST]

Warren is a NCAA division 1 Murican wreslter. Kakai is swedish (sorry Mulder, rille, other Swedish brethren ). Perfect time for me to get my nationalistic nut hugging on and hope it brings me the money

I do tend to agree Kakai is a bit underwhelming and of course comes from Europe. Even with Warren's age that non-stop wrestling game plan is tough to counter.

 

[null]

Warren just shot up to +120 so I had to put 2u on him. Kakai has looked lackluster in Bellator and Joe has the American wrestling advantage. Weigh-ins are about to start so let's see how they look on the scales.