Asked coworker about Wilder-Fury

How is Dubois the next Tyson?

They don't fight the same and they don't look the same. Only likeness is that they both have some early KOs.
 
till this day no one knows who Wilder is.

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LogicalInsanity said:
are you wagering anything on this?

I'm leaning towards Wilder...

Fury didn't look all too impressive in his last outing.
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I'm big on Wilder but I'm biased and I'm so pumped for this one that I'm throwing my bankroll management out of the window and just going full degen mode for this. I'm in for like 5u overall, something like that.

My objectivity in the capping process has been largely blinded by my excitement and fandom in regards to this one so I can't really give much input of any substance into the reason I'm betting the way I'm betting.

Gun to my head tho, I do think Deontay has a slightly better chance of taking this. However, I also got him at a cpl different prices awhile back that are better than what you can find him at now at most books.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
I'm big on Wilder but I'm biased and I'm so pumped for this one that I'm throwing my bankroll management out of the window and just going full degen mode for this. I'm in for like 5u overall, something like that.

My objectivity in the capping process has been largely blinded by my excitement and fandom in regards to this one so I can't really give much input of any substance into the reason I'm betting the way I'm betting.

Gun to my head tho, I do think Deontay has a slightly better chance of taking this. However, I also got him at a cpl different prices awhile back that are better than what you can find him at now at most books.
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awesome dude...and good luck.

I might place a small wager on another draw. lol
 
LogicalInsanity said:
awesome dude...and good luck.

I might place a small wager on another draw. lol
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That is actually a pretty smart bet. You get really good odds on it and after the last fight then even if Fury 'wins' on points we could very well get another draw. I put a meagre £50 down on Fury to win.
 
aries said:
That is actually a pretty smart bet. You get really good odds on it and after the last fight then even if Fury 'wins' on points we could very well get another draw. I put a meagre £50 down on Fury to win.
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I heard some site was paying +2000 for the draw and something pretty crazy for Wilder decision , maybe +1200 (going by my damaged memory).

Wilder decision is tempting at a big payout like that.

Obviously everyone will expect the KO but Fury is hard to hit clean, especially if he is better shape or on Mexican supplements again. And Wilder’s technical ability is insanely underrated.
 
jeff7b9 said:
I heard some site was paying +2000 for the draw and something pretty crazy for Wilder decision , maybe +1200 (going by my damaged memory).

Wilder decision is tempting at a big payout like that.

Obviously everyone will expect the KO but Fury is hard to hit clean, especially if he is better shape or on Mexican supplements again. And Wilder’s technical ability is insanely underrated.
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Wilder by decision... I'm not sure I'd be confident about that. Wilder loses lots of rounds, he often gets outboxed for whole fights but gets finishes or knockdowns like the first Fury fight. I think his technical ability is criticised because he gives away so many rounds. He likes to stalk opponents and doesn't do enough work to actually win rounds. So far he's been able to finish nearly every opponent bar two so it's paying off but if Fury can avoid the big shots for 12 rounds then I don't see him losing a decision to Wilder.
 
aries said:
Wilder by decision... I'm not sure I'd be confident about that. Wilder loses lots of rounds, he often gets outboxed for whole fights but gets finishes or knockdowns like the first Fury fight. I think his technical ability is criticised because he gives away so many rounds. He likes to stalk opponents and doesn't do enough work to actually win rounds. So far he's been able to finish nearly every opponent bar two so it's paying off but if Fury can avoid the big shots for 12 rounds then I don't see him losing a decision to Wilder.
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I definitely wouldn’t take it at anything close to even odds, but at +1200....

Here is why I think it could be more possible than people are willing to acknowledge.

#1 - Tyson is hard to hit clean.

#2- Tyson looks to be in better shape. Deeontay couldn’t put away a Tyson Fury who had only been back in boxing for 6 months- but he for sure puts away a larger, stronger (suspiciously more muscular) Tyson who has been active for 1.5 years?

#3 - “They are bigger so someone is definitely getting KOed”
Maybe, but bigger also means shorter gas tank. Does a 231 pound Wilder have the power to put Tyson away late after several rounds of Tyson leaning on him, 273 pounds pulling down on his head and arms?
(I suspect Tyson might use this strategy, which i believe could pay off for him by A) using his weight, B) tiring Wilder’s arms/shoulders C) limiting exposure to power shots at range.

#4 Tyson is 17-20 pounds bigger and looks leaner and more muscular.
.... let’s just say that I know if I was to be 17-20 pounds leaner in about a year how I would achieve that. And besides the muscle, (and better cardio and faster recovery) another effect of my “method” would be a significantly enhanced chin.

#5 “but Deontay loses too many rounds”
Strongest argument, BUT damn there were a lot of close rounds in the first fight, and Deontay tends to come forward more and throw a little more and he is the hometown fighter. And probably more money moving towards Tyson as he is more beloved among fans and boxing fans/hardcores who will side with him because he is more the sweet science purist.

Bottom line- Deontay by decision may not be the most likely outcome, but it is WAY more likely than the odds, and in my opinion, the way to make money gambling isn’t to beat the house it is to identify where the odds are not an accurate reflection of reality.
 
jeff7b9 said:
I definitely wouldn’t take it at anything close to even odds, but at +1200....

Here is why I think it could be more possible than people are willing to acknowledge.

#1 - Tyson is hard to hit clean.

#2- Tyson looks to be in better shape. Deeontay couldn’t put away a Tyson Fury who had only been back in boxing for 6 months- but he for sure puts away a larger, stronger (suspiciously more muscular) Tyson who has been active for 1.5 years?

#3 - “They are bigger so someone is definitely getting KOed”
Maybe, but bigger also means shorter gas tank. Does a 231 pound Wilder have the power to put Tyson away late after several rounds of Tyson leaning on him, 273 pounds pulling down on his head and arms?
(I suspect Tyson might use this strategy, which i believe could pay off for him by A) using his weight, B) tiring Wilder’s arms/shoulders C) limiting exposure to power shots at range.

#4 Tyson is 17-20 pounds bigger and looks leaner and more muscular.
.... let’s just say that I know if I was to be 17-20 pounds leaner in about a year how I would achieve that. And besides the muscle, (and better cardio and faster recovery) another effect of my “method” would be a significantly enhanced chin.

#5 “but Deontay loses too many rounds”
Strongest argument, BUT damn there were a lot of close rounds in the first fight, and Deontay tends to come forward more and throw a little more and he is the hometown fighter. And probably more money moving towards Tyson as he is more beloved among fans and boxing fans/hardcores who will side with him because he is more the sweet science purist.

Bottom line- Deontay by decision may not be the most likely outcome, but it is WAY more likely than the odds, and in my opinion, the way to make money gambling isn’t to beat the house it is to identify where the odds are not an accurate reflection of reality.
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All but #5 made no sense to me. But if you think Wilder by points is a good bet then go for it.
 
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